Ascot 2.30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2)
Aidan O'Brien's strong record with two-year-olds this week makes favourite Charles Darwin hard to oppose, though no favourite has won this race in the past ten years.
Beyond him, the top six (or more) in the market are all in with a chance. Paul Attwater’s long-shot has an each-way chance, especially given the surprise placings in juvenile races so far.
Lil Brother, unlucky on debut due to greenness and trouble in running, bounced back with a win at Bath. Though not dominant, he showed class in a slow-paced Nottingham race. Today’s likely stronger pace and big field could suit him, especially drawn near the front-running favourite.
Selection: Lil Brother (EW)
Ascot 3.05 – King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
Boatswain’s low draw on the round course is a concern, as jockey Mickael Barzalona must choose between burning energy early or settling at the rear. That tactical dilemma makes backing the Simon & Ed Crisford runner tricky.
This looks like a strong renewal with future Class 1 horses likely to emerge. Boatswain nearly beat today’s top weight Masai Moon at Nottingham, possibly needing the run. At Leicester, he stayed on well despite the winner getting first run, indicating today’s extra two furlongs will suit. The key will be whether he can get a clear run from off the pace.
Selection: Boatswain (EW)
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Ascot 3.40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2)
Caspi Star appeals as a strong contender. She ran well in the Chester Oaks Trial, finishing third despite a troubled run and racing wide, behind the eventual Epsom Oaks winner. Still looking green in her fifth start, she lost ground when making her move but stayed on well, suggesting more to come.
She has shown clear ability and should improve further. On seasonal debut, she was beaten by Lady Vivian—also running today—due to fitness and inexperience, notably hanging left under pressure. With the Chester form stacking up and only a 3L gap to the winner despite a tougher trip, she looks well worth a second look.
Selection: Caspi Star (EW)
Ascot 4.20 – Gold Cup (Group 1)
F-H Graffard’s Candelari is a fascinating contender, coming off a dominant Group 1 win over 2m at Longchamp. Though officially run on good to soft, the race time suggests quicker ground—similar to today's conditions. He beat a proven stayer (6th in the Arc) by 3.5L and was pulling away late.
Lightly raced and likely to improve further over this longer trip, Candelari looks strong value against more exposed rivals and is my pick for the race.
Selection: Candelari
Ascot 5.00 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
Though I’m wary of short-priced horses in big handicaps, Raafedd impressed with a dominant novice win at Newbury, earning an RPR of 93. That form has been boosted since, with the runner-up and third both winning.
Lightly raced types tend to go well in this race, and Raafedd fits that profile, making his handicap debut after just three starts. The step up to a mile looks within reach based on pedigree and his running style.
Yesterday’s winner My Cloud showed that well-handicapped favourites can still offer value. With William Haggas having won this in 2012 with a similar type, Raafedd looks a strong contender.
Selection: Raafedd (EW)
Ascot 5.35 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3)
While Detain and Trinity College bring strong French Derby form, Arabian Force may be underestimated in the market. William Haggas is a shrewd operator who doesn’t run horses in races like this without serious intent.
Haggas won this race in 2009 and has gone close with his few runners since. Arabian Force, rated 95, brings echoes of his 2008 winner Collection, who defied higher-rated rivals. He could’ve taken the handicap route but instead steps straight into deep waters—suggesting confidence from the yard.
If he runs well, his mark is gone, so they’re clearly aiming high. At the odds, Arabian Force looks a value play against the more obvious contenders.
Selection: Arabian Force (EW)
Ascot 6.10 – Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap)
English Oak returns for the race he won impressively last year off a mark of 99, and now lines up just 1lb higher after three runs that have seen his rating drop from 108 to 100. Though out of form compared to last year, he’s shown steady improvement and may have been laid out for this.
His dominant 3L win here last year suggested Group potential, and while things haven’t gone smoothly since, James Doyle choosing him over his stablemate is a strong vote of confidence. With trainer Ed Walker in great form, English Oak looks a major player once again.
Selection: English Oak (EW)
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