The Day 2 Lucky 15 was a shambles.
Map Of Stars was ridiculously weak in the market, going out to 9/1 before coming back in slightly. He ran a very poor race.
The Liffey was vying for favouritism at the start of the day, but also drifted out violently and ran a stinker.
Julia Augusta ran an okay race. She was probably on the wrong side of the track, but didn't look good enough.
Utmost Respect also ran a decent race, but lacked the levels to get involved in the final stages.
Today's Lucky 15 is advised as EW.
Lil Brother 50/1 EW (4pl) – Ascot 2.30 (Norfolk Stakes Group 2)
The way that Aidan O'Brien's two-year-old horses have been running this week will make it difficult to stop the favourite Charles Darwin. However, if he were to win this, he'd go against the trend of no winning favourites in the last ten years.
Outside of the favourite, there are plenty who could fill the places, or potentially win if the favourite doesn't fire. Look at the top six, or even more in the market, and you'll have a solid enough chance. But, I think Paul Attwater's horse towards the bigger end of odds has an each-way chance. We have already seen some big-placed horses in the juveniles races this week, so it goes to show that figures on these horses don't mean a great deal.
Lil Brother should have won on debut, but he was green in the early stages and ran into trouble. Once he got in the clear, he shot home, but it wasn't good enough as the winner had already gone for home at the point Lil Brother was blocked. Last time out, he managed to win, to avenge his problems at Bath. He didn't win by a comfortable margin, which looks like he has too much to find to bridge the gap to today's Class 1 company. The race at Nottingham wasn't run at a fast tempo, and only started to become a sprint in the final two furlongs. I don't think that suited him, but he showed enough class to win. With a big field always likely in the juvenile Royal Ascot races, I think he will relish today's task, and he is drawn near the favourite who is a front runner.
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| Betvictor | £50 in free bets | Get the offer |
| Star Sports Bet | £20 in free bets | Get the offer |
| Jeffbet | £30 in free bets | Get the offer |
Boatswain 28/1 EW (5pl) – Ascot 3.05 (King George V Stakes Heritage Handicap)
Being drawn low on the round course is not ideal, as you're stuck between a rock and a hard place. Mickael Barzalona will have to decide whether to go forward and use up energy or take his medicine and settle towards the rear on Boatswain. This is my main concern when backing the Simon & Ed Crisford horse.
I think this race is a very strong renewal, and we'll likely see many Class 1 horses come out of this come the end of the season. Trying to find the best handicapped horse is a tough task, but I am hoping we get the luck of the draw with Boatswain.
He looked like he was going to beat Masai Moon (top weight today) at Nottingham, but the Godolphin horse battled back to win on the line; chances are that he needed the run that day. Last time out, he looked like a horse who needed further. The winner at Leicester got first run over Boatswain, nicking many lengths. In hindsight, Boatswain did extremely well to bridge the deficit, but ran out of track. That run suggests today's extra two furlongs will be ideal for him, but it all comes down to whether he can get a run, as I think he'll be held up.
Hollys Graces 33/1 EW (3pl) – Ascot 3.40 (Ribblesdale Stakes Group 2)
I gave a shout out to Hollys Graces on the main thread, and I think she has to be better respected than being the biggest outsider in this field.
Henry De Bromhead is better known as a jumps trainer, but he is just as good with his flat recruits. He has sent one runner to Royal Ascot so far, and that resulted in a win at odds of 20/1. His strike rate in Ireland for flat racing isn't strong, but whenever his runners come to the UK, he means business. He recently plundered a pot at Sandown with Colin Keane in the saddle, and Colin is on board Hollys Graces today. Billy Lee would have been the jockey Henry would've opted for, but Billy is tied down to ride for Paddy Twomey.
On form, she has a lot to prove, but so do many in this race. She won on debut last year over 7f, and then returned with an okay effort, finishing sixth behind Garden Of Eden. I'm hoping she needed the run, and I think this trip could be what she wants, as she is by Australia.
Arabian Force 18/1 EW (4pl) – Ascot 5.35
All eyes will be drawn to the French Derby form with Detain and Trinity College likely to take an awful lot of beating. Despite them having the best form in the race, I think Arabian Force has a much better chance than the odds suggest.
William Haggas is one of the best trainers in the UK, but he is definitely also one of the shrewdest. Very rarely do you see William Haggas putting his horses in races like this for the fun of it; he goes with the intention of winning. He won this race in 2009 and has only had two runners in this since then, both of which ran well. Mutakayyef was second in 2014, and Mukhadram was fourth in 2012.
I get similar vibes from Arabian Force to Haggas' 2008 winner. Collection was 98 rated, and managed to beat horses who were miles ahead of him in the official ratings, most of them being in the 100-110. Arabian Force is rated 95, and I refuse to believe he would send him here if he didn't think he could win this. Off a mark of 95, he could have easily won a couple of handicaps before having a tilt at Class 1 races; instead, they are going all-in. They know if he doesn't win and runs a big race to finish in the places, his handicap mark will be gone ,and it's Class 1 races from here on in.
GambleAware