Racing tips: Triple Trade still looks well-treated off a new handicap mark of 119

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William Ewart travelled as he did at Bangor, nice and smooth, but he didn't quite get the job done and finished as runner-up which has been one of many this month.

Pontefract 1:50 – Adaay To Win 6/1 (1pt)

Backing unraced 2yos is never something I'd recommend, but I think there is a betting angle in this race. Indication Call is the one to beat as that horse has had two runs to date, and we all know having an experience advantage is huge with the juvenile runners, but his form isn't great and I think he is very vulnerable to a newcomer.

The pedigrees on offer in this race aren't great, but when you look at the record that Ed Dunlop has when he sends 2yo runners to Pontefract, it makes you think his runner, Adaay To Win could run a big race on debut.

Ed Dunlop is 3/4 with 2yo's at this track in the last five years, recording a profit of +37.00 to £1 level stakes, and is 7/27 in his career at this track which has produced a profit of +53.50 to £1 level stakes, with a further 5 being placed, so it's clearly a place where he gets winners and his runners often go off at decent odds, so I think backing his runner in this race could be deemed as good value.

This horse is by Adaay, who is still a young sire with this being his 3rd or 4th year as a sire and he seems good for the price you can breed from him. He has produced some decent horses to date, but the one thing which is good is that a lot of his progeny have won first time out. Adaay To Win's Dam wasn't a great horse, reaching a peak rating of 82, but she won first time out as well, so there is precociousness in the pedigree.

Pontefract 3:00 – Cumulonimbus 13/2 (0.5pt ew 4pl WHill)

This is a cracking little handicap for a Monday at Pontefract, and you'll be able to get some decent odds in this race. I like Cumulonimbus for the Charlie Fellowes yard.

This horse has a progressive profile, which is attractive in racing like this, as you think they'll be able to find the progression needed to land a nice race, rather than relying on a horse bouncing back to form. What I like about this lad is the way he travels through his races, but also the form of his recent run. The winner hasn't won since, but I'm positive that he's on a good handicap mark, but the runner-up went on to finish 2nd in a Class 1 Listed Fillies' race at Doncaster at the back end of last year. Cumulonimbus was third in that race and they pulled well clear of the rest of the field, which is normally a good indicator that it is decent form and that you have some well-handicapped animals.

Pontefract normally favours those towards the inside draws as it can become carnage for those drawn wide who have to go wide around the bend to make their runs. This horse is drawn in stall 3, has made the running previously, and has Hollie Doyle on board who is absolute mustard from the front, so I'm expecting a bold showing.

Pontefract 3:30 – My Mate Ted 13/2 (0.5pt ew 5pl)

Roger Teal sends two runners to Pontefract on Monday, the first runs in the 3:00, but looks to have a limited chance, the other is My Mate Ted and I think this is the main hope for connections today.

Roger has previously only ever sent 1 runner to Pontefract and that yielded 1 winner, coming at odds of 8/1. My Mate Ted was the subject of a very strong gamble on his seasonal reappearance when backed in from 16/1 to 5/1 but he didn't quite run to what was expected. That was his first run in 155 days and was his first run after being gelded, so the combination of the operation and time away from the track might've taken its toll, but there was serious money for him, so I think he is worth another chance, especially with the trainers 1/1 record at the track.

This horse has shown promise in his runs from last year, including running well on soft ground, which bodes well for today with some small amounts of rain expected at Pontefract. This is a big step back in grade from last time out, where he was running in a Class 3, so the fact they fancied him strongly for that race gives me confidence now he's back in a Class 5.

Pontefract 4:10 – Tarbat Ness 3/1 (1pt)

John Berry was the winning trainer of this contest 12 months ago with Dereham, who was a winning selection for us in this race last year. He sends that horse here again, but I think his main hope is with Tarbat Ness.

This horse put in a very nice performance in a low-graded race at Redcar last time around over 2m in terrible conditions on soft ground, pulling well clear with the winner of 13L to the third. That would a career-best by some margin, and looked like a completely different horse to his previous form. Based on that run, today's step-up in trip will be fine even though it's an unknown, but considering he won this race last year, he knows what type of horse is required to win.

My only concern is that the race at Redcar was quite gruelling in testing conditions and that was only 14 days ago, so it might've taken something out of him, but I'll take a chance as I think if he is 100% he has a blinding chance.

Windsor 4:55 – Talap 4/1 (1pt)

Carrying top weight in a race like this shouldn't be a problem for Talap, as this is a very poor race, full of exposed horses with the majority of them being out of form.

Talap doesn't appear to be in great form if you look at the recent form figures, but he got unlucky last time at Lingfield, which is never a surprise as he got blocked in running. I don't think he would've won that race, but he would've gotten a lot closer than he did. That was a decent run for just his second start for David Pipe since moving from France.

He had previously been in good form when in France, already winning 4x since last September, and he has been in training and racing since back then, so he is going to be extremely fit in comparison to most of them in this race, and I think he is on a good handicap mark of 71. He will handle the soft ground which it should come the time of racing and I think he is decent odds in what appears to be a very poor race.

Kempton 5:55 – Triple Trade 5/1 (1.5pt ew BetVictor)

I really do like the chances of Triple Trade in this contest at the bottom of the weights.

He has been an unlucky loser the past couple of races, so it was nice to see him finally get a deserved win at Wincanton. The winning margin was only 2L, so punters might think he's not put in a good performance, or one good enough to win a race like this today in a better grade. However, the runner-up was previously on a hattrick and the 3rd was still quite lightly raced over fences.

I think the drop back in trip will help him, as he might've been getting tired towards the end of the race last time out and he clearly has the speed to go around Kempton over 2f shorter. Joe Tizzard won this race last year with Slate House who runs in this again this year, but Brendan Powell has opted for Triple Trade, and I can see why.

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