Racing tips: Thistimenextyear looks overpriced at 40/1

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Kyprios could put his name in the hat for the Epsom Derby, by winning the Lingfield Derby trial at 2:50.

Warwick 5:12

With the form he has over PTP races, ERNE RIVER should be winning a race of this nature.

On his second PTP run he finished runner-up to Hes A Hardy Bloke, who is now rated 134 hurdles. Mongol Emperor, who was back in 4th, is now rated 122 over hurdles. Then if we move onto his third run over PTPs, where he won, he beat a horse called a horse called Minella Dream, who is now trained by Donald McCain and is 143 rated, recently finishing runner-up to Grade 1 winner My Drogo.

He has had two starts over hurdles, with his first run being a decent pipe opener, finishing 3rd, where he arguably needed the run. His second run was more convincing, in which he won by 5 lengths. The form of that race has produced a couple of winners (3rd & 5th won since).

Warwick are expected to get a lot of rain, which will mean that the ground will turn to soft, at the very least. Soft ground should play to his strengths, being a PTP winner he will stay further than 2m 3f, so it will allow him to show his superior stamina, he has also won on soft.

Warwick 6:50

To see LIBERTY BELLA at odds of 4/1 (at the time of writing) is a bit of shock. I expected her to be the favourite, as she has some good form and is the only horse in the race with chasing experience.

I can see why people would be against Liberty Bella as she has had blips in her form, recently shown when being pulled-up at Cheltenham. But, if she did not run in that race, then I think she would be the favourite for this race, as she won a Class 3 chase over C&D.

Unlike other people, I am willing to forgive the run at Cheltenham, as that track is not for every horse, and a lot of horses do struggle at that venue, especially over fences, and especially novice chasers, due to their stiff fences. Prior to winning at Warwick she fell, but she fell 2 out when having every chance. The time before that she finished 3rd in a Class 1 Listed mares chase over C&D behind Zambella, who is a good chaser, who had beaten the likes of Stormy Ireland (Recent Grade 1 winner in Ireland).

She will handle the soft ground, and clearly like the track and will be fit.

Warwick 8:20

I am not normally a big fan of betting in bumpers, but STORM DENNIS looks to have a nice chance.

His form is definitely the best on offer, especially the Ascot race he competed in last November. Wonderwall was the winner of that race, and he has since finished 3rd in a listed bumper (1st 2nd & 4th in that race were 1st, 2nd & 3rd in the Grade 2 bumper at Aintree), and then he ran a creditable race to finish 7th in the Champion bumper at Cheltenham.

Storm Dennis was unlucky lto at Newbury, where his saddle slipped after the first furlong, so a line can be put through that race.

There are a lot of unknowns in this race, but you would be very disappointed if Storm Dennis weren’t in contention at the end of the race.

Lingfield 2:50

Based on the bare form, you probably wouldn’t side with KYPRIOS, but he is trained by the master, Aidan O’Brien, and his pedigree suggests there’s plenty more to come from this lightly raced son of Galileo.

Kyprios won on seasonal reappearance, which is a bonus as a lot of Aidan’s have not managed to win first time out in recent years, but especially this year. The way he won suggested that he would be much better when upped in trip.

Today at Lingfield he will tackle an extra 1.5 furlongs, which should suit his running style and pedigree. He seems to take a long time to hit top gear, and I think the application of cheekpieces will help him as he did seem to idle slightly and run straight. He is related to the likes of Free Eagle, Custom Cut, Search For A Song & Falcon Eight, and a lot of them are strong stayers, so you would imagine the best is yet to come for this horse.

Lingfield 3:25

Chris Wall has trained DOUBLE OR BUBBLE the same way in which he trained the 2017 winner of this race, Mix And Mingle. I think this is very interesting as Chris Wall doesn’t come across many Group horses, so the fact he has taken the same path for this horse, as he did with Mix And Mingle, suggests to me he thinks this horse is very good.

Both horses won at Newmarket, in the same handicap before going on to run in this race. Double Or Bubble won very convincingly at Newmarket, winning by 3.75 lengths beating a lot of horses in the low 100s and high 90s.

Obviously, she will need to improve again to win a race of this nature against some very good horses, but that’s not out of the equation. She is still very unexposed, and she seems to be getting better every race. I’m hoping the ground doesn’t get too soft, as that would be the only worry.

Haydock 3:10

I understand that Big priced each way horses aren’t for everyone, but I think a small play on THISTIMENEXTYEAR is worth a shot.

I backed him when he ran last time out at the Aintree festival, and he travelled well throughout that race, until a few furlongs out where the time off the track (600+ days) probably caught up with him. He had previously finished 2nd in that race (2019), and then was entered in this race, where he was very unfortunate to be brought to a standstill from a falling horse, he probably would’ve won if it wasn’t for that. It’s an interesting take that Richard Spencer has targeted him at the two races which he was very good at in the past. He will have come on tonnes for his race lto, and I get the feeling this was always the main target, especially considering he was off the track for 667 days.

Connor Brace takes the ride, and the interesting thing about this jockey booking is that Connor is arguably the best conditional rider in the UK, but has not had a ride since the 17th March, and he doesn’t have any scheduled rides for the foreseeable future.

Thistimenextyear gets in at the bottom of the weights (10st) and any rain which arrives will be no problem for him as he handles soft and heavy. With extra places on offer, he could definitely outrun his odds.

Advised: Each Way

Haydock 4:20

EY UP ITS MICK made a nice return on seasonal reappearance, finishing 5th at Beverley in what would probably be described as his most unfavourable conditions (fast ground, 5f, sharp track).
Haydock is currently described as ‘soft’ on the flat course, and will be much worse at the time of racing, which should be ideal for Ey Up Its Mick who relishes soft ground. He gets the help of Kieran Schofield, who will take off a handy 5lbs, meaning he races off 8st 7lbs, which is handy on stamina sapping ground.

Advised: Each Way

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