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Perth was called off on Thursday so it was just True Legend who ran yesterday. I'm convinced he's on a good mark but he's a bit of a screw loose. Luke Morris had no chance on him, he was far too keen and when he asked for an effort his head was all over the place. When he mentally matures he'll win a nice race, but yesterday was a showcase of his quirks.
Newmarket 1:50 – Silver Lady 11/2 (1pt EW PaddyPower 4pl)
There is a mixture of old and younger horses in this race which normally makes for an interesting betting prospect but I don't think many in this have a great chance of winning. Going through and comparing the form of the horses who line up I think only a couple have a real solid chance of winning and I'd say that is Silver Lady and Queen For You.
The latter-named horse has been a tip of mine on a couple of occasions throughout the flat season and I still believe she is capable of progressing and winning a race of this nature but I'll be hoping that Silver Lady can reverse the form from when they met at York earlier this year. There wasn't a lot between the two who finished 2nd and 3rd but I think there is more scope to Silver Lady to progress with that being just her 2nd run in her career and it didn't exactly go to plan that day. She was too keen in the early stages of the race, so to see her finish as well as she did was very impressive. Charlie Appleby has probably given her time away from the track to physically and mentally mature, as the latter was definitely needed and they've reached for the first time hood today to try and keep a lid on her. If the hood works then I think she can be winning this race before bigger and better races, probably abroad at some point this year.
Newmarket 3:00 – Ylang Ylang 11/4 (1pt PaddyPower)
I think you've got to give Ylang Ylang another chance even though she flopped massively last time out in Ireland.
Before that flop when she went off as 6/5F for the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes she had been very impressive on the other two race starts, she was the ante-post favourite for next year's Epsom Oaks (not sure what price she is now) and the form was starting to work out quite nicely, so I refuse to believe for one minute that she showed her true ability last time out, it was far too bad to be true. To put the form of her two first starts into the picture, the runner-up from her Group 3 win went on to win a Group 2 and finish 2nd in a Group 1. This filly has a very nice pedigree being by Frankel and out of a 100-rated mare, the pedigree would suggest she will be better next year as there's plenty of stamina but that doesn't mean she's not going to be useful this year, and if she didn't run in the Group 1 race last time out, there's no doubt in my mind she would be much shorter in the market, and I think punters/bookies are giving up on her far too early.
Newmarket 3:35 – Chindit 7/2 (1pt Bet365)
If every horse in this race turned up in peak fitness then I don't think Chindit would win, I think that would go to Maljoom, but based on the fact the latter horse hasn't run since Royal Ascot last year I think you've got to take him on and Chindit is arguably in the form of his life and has to be the value.
I doubted Chindit last time out, as I've done for most of his career and he put in a cracking performance to beat Knight on ground which suited the runner-up and not so much Chindit. Not only did the ground not really suit Chindit, he was giving away a heap of weight that day to a progressive 3yo, and I can see why the Racing Post handicapper rated that performance an RPR of 119. Back on a faster surface today I think he can cause an upset in this race, he is off to breed in India at the end of the season and another Group 2 win would be a great way to send him off into the sunset.
As for the others in the race, I'm not fully sold on them. I tipped up Mighty Ulysses when he dead-heated with Embesto at Salisbury, it was a decent return to the track but Regal Reality wasn't a million miles away in 3rd, so that can't be rated as a great form line. Epictetus seems to want softer ground these days, so the good to firm ground isn't ideal for him and Mutasaabeq hasn't been in great form this year, but has to be respected as he is a C&D winner, including when landing this race 12 months ago.
get the number sequence correct and !!
not bad for 20p
P
6. Owens Lad
11/2 6/1
28th Sep SOUTHWELL 18:30 HANDICAP 1m 3f 23y – Each Way
18:30 28 September 2023
Best odds
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
P
8. Running Star
12/1 22/1
28th Sep SOUTHWELL 19:00 EVENT 1m 0f 13y – Each Way
19:00 28 September 2023
Best odds
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
P
4. Enola Grey
17/2 11/1
28th Sep SOUTHWELL 19:30 HANDICAP 1m 0f 13y – Each Way
19:30 28 September 2023
Best odds
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places
P
4. Masterpainter
12/1 18/1
28th Sep SOUTHWELL 20:00 HANDICAP 1m 0f 13y – Each Way
20:00 28 September 2023
Best odds
Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places
Stake
£0.20
Returns
£17.49
another nice one to finish off the day
Won
silks
6 – Dance Time @ 20/1
Win
20.30 Southwell – Paying 3 Places instead of 2
brill done the same bet on PP and skybet
little bets big prices great fun
GIDDY UP! 🏆🏇
YOU HAVE WON £11.22
W
6. Dance Time
22/1
33/1
28th Sep SOUTHWELL 20:30 HANDICAP 1m 4f 14y – Win
20:30 28 September 2023
Best odds
Stake
£0.33
Returns
£11.22
it isn’t my style to chance a trainer like yday and it didn’t go that well. one varian runner i didn’t mention was 20s backed into 12s and lost on the line, a 2yo in the same colours as a kev ryan horse who placed at 50s earlier in the day (also 2yo newcomer), same colours as the 50/1 winner of the opening race at royal ascot triple time, basically a 2yo owner to watch out for. sniper’s eye ‘bad form but short price for a reason’ theory was at least correct.
i said appleby brings his best 2yos to HQ, and he walked away with a winner, DC mentioned his strike rate around 38% could be a good time to catch him. he has a hat full there today including 2 favs and an unraced 2yo. i said about haggas starting to warm up at this time of year so again he has plenty out. i am more of a hcapper at lower levels of racing so i’ll leave that there, it probably didn’t need pointing to out to anyone that follows the game but can’t hurt.
i hope to have a go at newcastle tonight, nothing to report besides that. 121251100 course specialist TURNTABLE is in the last at HQ, sadly top weight, only 1lb below his last win and that was a year ago, only 4 runs since and they’re been terrible so 5/1 isnt ideal, chance a throwaway small ew stake on it just in case, not looking at rivals, probs another day for him.
lets see how my luck holds out today!!
hopefully didn’t use IT all up yesterday
Tarawa @ 6/1SP
Win – 13.50 Newmarket – Rosemary Stakes – Money Back as Cash if 2nd or 3rd (T’s & C’s Apply)
one to watch today betting wise/price ??
28/1 atm
13:50 Newmarket – 1m Listed
Naomi Lapaglia
sure the first race involves a 3.6.9 combi
so a little ew on
Ameynah @ 14/1SP
Win – 13.50 Newmarket – Rosemary Stakes –
that’s it now over £1 spent on that first race
will see soon
shwari 3.00 nap
mutasaabeq 3.35 nb
coppice 1.50 ew sweet memories 2.25 well done all winners yesterday
quick change 1.50 ew value bet at a price
kels 2.00
As they say Back to the drawing board 🤷♂️🤷♂️
few pennies on
Elegancia @ 28/1SP
Win – 14.25 Newmarket – Dubai Stakes – Paying 4 Places instead of 3
1600 worcs IKE SPORT 15/2 EW 5 places
i was looking at the big race at Worcester, a 16 runner affair with a 6/1 fav, that is my type of race. sadly i didn’t make many in roads, but STD just won the opener and is on one for Neil Mulholland, at 8/1 a winner here last time, takes a big step up but he is the one I will chance. Mulholland is 2nd only to Fergal O’Brien (has couple in this also) in terms of wins over the last 4 years at this track, horse won over C&D lto, 2nd 1.5l behind 3rd absolutely no where so all things considered i am chancing. whilst ADAM WEST has a 20/1 shot in BAIKAL, i will have peanuts on it given his 13-4 here, loads of big names in this and the horse has only won over 2m so maybe one you can avoid.
NTD has now won 4 in a row and has a 10lbs claimer in the 4pm, the horse is 32212212 and only 2lbs above its last win. already on STD but he just won again and treble’s dont happen too often. BOL.
as for the winners already, mutasaabeq, won race last year, think is 4-5 over c&d and wasn’t one to take on. rizzle mentioned ylang ylangs form well, the winner carla’s way was not that far behind darnation who went out and won a group 2 by 3 lengths next time so, could’ve done with mentioning that for a yard who is 313122 before that race.. tricky races to decipher fair play for giving it a go.
BOOOOOOOOOOOM and that is what i am all about, i have a lot of haters but it is undeniable, a legend of the game, hope some got on!
Well done database, but less of the boooms please, lowers the tone and I’ve got a headache, too many parcels in my van today for my liking
just a note, i know this is not a science and hard to gauge, but after that first winner at HQ, for me, race card trends ALWAYS HAPPEN. i would’ve bet my bankroll either frankie/gosden got a double or the ownership group did, which they did. my bigger bet obv went the wrong way, but just like jockeys riding trebles and the mugs on tv claiming he is ‘riding out of his skin’ yeah sure he is mate, all planned long before this and nothing to do with how a jockey is riding, surely they are riding with 5% differential every single time, so it’s all horse/trainer/is it their day type of stuff… point is logic and form can often be overlooked and things like this can and should be read into. bol.
manimole 4.00 ew did win with something in hand and was going away very nicely so worth a ew bet today
Psalm 4-45 Newmarket
9-4 top 2 finish HILLS
7-1 win bet365
80-20 stake
Turntable 5-55 Newmarket
9-1 ew 4 places SKYBET
Figures for new yard are poor but has history at this track with a 4/7 record including winning the last 2 runnings of this race at odds of 18-1 and 11-1 so maybe bookies are hedging their bets with the 7-1 today.
Claimer takes off 5 but not sure I’ve heard of kayia Fraser so it’s open to conjecture If it’s 5 pounds well spent 🤣.
She won twice on this for previous trainer Chris wall here last autumn so she might be ok.
5s when i mentioned it so perhaps the bad form may continue if its now 9s. nothing wrong with the claimer, as you say rides the horse regular, eustace is his main trainer too, neither are that bad. i remember being at the track the day turntable won, it got money late, i mean the drift now makes that a bit irrelevant, stiff track, most only done the mile, hughes’ fav done 1m2 but on aw, is evens for top 2. with 4 places on sky, IN THESE SHOES 17/2 is what i chance, i dont advice any followers based on horse has only won at 7f failing badly enough last 2 times over similar distances.
*insert boom here*
🇺🇸
Apologies Copy and paste job!
Yankee (x11)
7. Bourbon Boss *****
15/4??
29th Sep CHURCHILL DOWNS 22:26 EVENT 0m 6f 0y – Win
22:26 Today
5. Just Is
6/4 ***
29th Sep SANTA ANITA 23:36 EVENT 0m 6f 0y – Win
23:36 Today
5. Eda ****+
11/10
30th Sep SANTA ANITA 00:36 EVENT 0m 6f 110y – Win
00:36 Tomorrow
10. Autoline ***
15/4
30th Sep SANTA ANITA 01:06 EVENT 1m 0f 0y – Win
01:06 Tomorrow
15:40
Greek Order is very short and that must reflect his chances. I could care less if it wins, with 8 places on offer I’ll take each way stabs for interest. With so many horses, angles can be made for most I’m sure, for instance it’d be pretty easy to select last years winner Majestic. I might even chance a Charlton 1-2.
None of my selections have shortened overnight, most sliding.
The one I am most interested in was ZOZIMUS 22/1. A 5yo who last won as a 2yo for Donnacha O’Brien, as a 3yo he was tried in this race when a decent enough 4th off 94. Snapped up by the Horse Watchers and sent to the infamous O’Meara yard, he has recently come back to form and will be running off 79, which at 18/1 leaves him on a mark too low to ignore. The apprentice doesn’t ride for the trainer but is one of the few that can make this weight so I’m not put off and wont mind watching him come last given the approach to the race.
Last night, OVIEDO 12/1 was a huge drifter and is now back down to 12s, is it to attract dead money? I am not sure but I chanced him at Royal Ascot when travelling well for a long way when prominent, the way he faded is enough to never back him again but was better lto and gets a small stake. TERWADA 22/1 gets a couple of quid just in case, he’s unexposed with a couple of wins, yard have one much smaller in the betting which could be ominous but they did have a 66/1 place last year. HAUNTED DREAM 18/1 is from connections who took the AW by storm a couple of seasons ago, the claimer puts him capable of placing, as no doubt half the field are, around 14s. SAGA 11/1 is a horse I have history with, he is getting one final chance. He ran well in Listed company at Ascot, and was a head 2nd over this C&D back in May, I don’t expect too much but definitely chancing, no Frankie could even be a good thing. EPIC POET 80/1 represents a yard who’ve won this if looking for something really crazy. Whilst Varian’s 2nd string Tyrrhenian Sea 50/1 has last years winning jockey on, the horse 3l behind a previous winner of this race in Lord North who won nto in Meydan. Other than that Jimmy Sullivan is an old fav of mine on a 25/1 shot Carolus Magnus.