Racing tips: The Tizzard yard will be Striking A Pose in the winners enclosure at Taunton

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A couple of disappointing runs on Sunday. My most likely chance of a winner blew his chance before the race started (In Excelsis Deo) by being too keen before the race, and that hindered his chances massively.

Sam's Adventure did what Sam's Adventure does and that was put in a terrible run when I tip him up. He blundered the first fence and unseated the rider, maybe the jockey could've stayed on better, but that might be harsh. Anglers Crag grabbed a place, somehow, after looking very one-paced. He stayed on much better than I thought he would, and might need further.

Taunton 3:15 – Striking A Pose 4/1 (1pt)

I think this race is all about whether the top weight, Doctor Ken, will stay the trip or not. If he does, then he's the one to beat as he's probably got the best form on offer. However, my gut instinct tells me that he won't stay this 3m on ground which should be soft come the time of racing. He looks like he will stay by running on strongly over shorter trips, but that doesn't automatically mean he will. His pedigree doesn't offer much enthusiasm for this trip and carrying 12st will make it even tougher.

I managed to whittle it down to Strike A Pose who has the best chance of winning this and is at decent odds of around 4/1. He has been disappointing this season but his most recent run was somewhat of a return to form and something the Joe Tizzard yard would be happy with. I think you can probably ignore the first three starts of this season as the Tizzard yard hasn't been firing on all cylinders, they had a decent summer but over the winter their form did take a nose dive, so that might've played a part in those runs. He looked like a decent novice chaser last season and I thought his run at Chepstow where he finished second over 3m off a mark of 131 was a career-best. He stays the trip, travels strongly through his races (on a good day) and is normally a sweet jumper. His current handicap mark of 122 makes him well-handicapped, and as I mentioned, his latest run was a good effort and how he ran suggests he is ready for this step-up in trip again.

The form of that runner-up finish at Chepstow now reads well with the fourth (Eva's Oskar) now being rated 7lbs higher after finishing 2nd in a Grade 3 and winning a Grade 3. As well as Slipway (PU on the day) improved from a mark of 125 to 139.

I think Golden Whisky stays on well over 2m 4f, but didn't seem 3m out on his only try. Young Buck is on a too-high handicap mark. I think he was flattered by his rating when winning over hurdles as the horses he beat weren't great. Two Chase runs have been poor. New Age Dawning is a contender in this but he might be on a handicap mark which makes it tough for him to win, he hasn't got much leeway off 122.

Southwell 2:35 – The Grey Falco 6/1 (1pt)

If Coastguard Station handles soft ground, he'll be tough to beat, but I don't think today's ground will be ideal for him. He has done his best runs on quick ground and has done well on it but he's been withdrawn on soft ground before. He has won a PTP on soft ground, but the calibre of horses he beat that day was terrible, so it doesn't mean much, but the fact he has been kept to good ground makes me think he is worth taking on, especially when he carries 12 stone on his back.

I think a chance can be taken on The Grey Falco who was well-fancied on stable debut for Ben Pauling. He was backed into 9/4F last time out at Fontwell but didn't quite run to how the stable was probably expecting. I think he can be forgiven for that run, as it was the first run in 110 days and he had to carry a monster weight of 12st 2lbs. Ben Pauling is a trainer who has been getting a lot of recognition this year, and he deserves all the plaudits he gets as he's been in great form, but he generally doesn't miss when his horses are backed in the market, so they'll be out for redemption today.

He's still a lightly raced horse over fences, with just two runs to date, but he was a decent hurdler, winning 2 and being placed 3 more times from 10 runs. He handles soft ground shown when he won at Haydock last January. He beat Feivel into third that day and that horse looks like a decent handicap chaser for Dr Richard Newland, he has won once and finished 2nd from two runs, now rated 122.

I won't be doing each way, but he's an EW price at the moment.

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