Racing tips: The strong travelling Rosscarbery will relish the drop back to 12f

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Day 1 would've been a bloodbath for me if it wasn't for Zoulu Chief as the other two were appalling and I'm not quite sure why. Zoulu Chief did what I was hoping and get the lead, but I didn't imagine they'd give him an easy lead, and he absolutely scorched away from them until the runner-up closed the gap inside the final half furlong. Some performance, and that woman again, Heather Main proving what a trainer she is!

York 1:50 – Queen's Guard 40/1 (0.5pt EW)

I do think Relief Rally is the one to beat and I think she has a great chance of winning, but 2/1 seems a little too short for me to get involved. Instead, I'll be having a small EW play on Queen's Guard which is a massive price.

I know some people will say well if you think a horse has a good chance of winning, why not back it? It all comes down to value, and I don't think 2/1 is deemed value. But, I do think Queen's Guard is worth a punt at 40/1, especially in these 2yo races which often throw up some mad results.

Clipper Logistics who own my selection loves runners at York and clearly loves a winner at the big meetings at the track, so to see this race being targetted for Queen's Guard is noticeable. They are a bigger outfit in racing these days, and they would've had a plethora of horses they could've sent for this race, so the fact they've sent one here from the Michael Bell yard is of notice. On figures she has a lot to do to get involved with the big guns, but I thought she was impressive at Yarmouth last time out. She was fancied on her debut the time before when she didn't run to expectations on soft ground, but she put that to bed when winning in good style at odds of 12/1 the time after. What also was noticeable was that Danny Tudhope went to Yarmouth to take the ride on her, almost as if he was told that she has a lot of potential and it's worth the trip down. He has only ever ridden 28 horses at Yarmouth is his career, and he could've easily passed up on the opportunity even though he is the retained rider, but the likes of Kieran Shoemark or another backup could've ridden her. She didn't disappoint and won by 1.25L.

It's a tough ask, I understand that, but I do think she is being massively overlooked like she was last time and normally when a Clipper's horse is backed in on a debut that is a good sign, even if they don't win, as they tend to win the time after.

York 3:35 – Rosscarbery 16/1 (1pt EW Bet365)

The second Group 1 of the week is the Yorkshire Oaks and this renewal is a great race, with a mix of all ages and there will be plenty of different opinions on who will come out on top.

3yo's have a fantastic record in this race, with them winning 7 out of the last 10, so the youngsters will definitely be popular with trend punters. However, I'm not so sure that the 3yo crop is bulletproof against their elders this year and I think Rosscarbery has a great chance in this. Paddy Twomey is probably my favourite trainer in Ireland, I love how shrewd he is with his purchases and with his placing of his horses and Rosscarbery has been a great addition to his yard over the last couple of seasons where he has improved her no end. She is a 3x stakes winner and has run some belters at the top level including 2nd in a Group 1 in France over 10f last year. This year she has landed Group 3 and was 2nd in a Group 2 last time out behind Emily Dickinson. She would've traded short in running at the Curragh last time as she travelled the strongest through that race but she was simply outstayed by the winner who is a player in the Cup races for the next few years. With that pace she possesses I think York is the perfect track to see her run well in another Group 1. She'll travel brilliantly, she'll be fine on the ground and she has some strong pieces of form to go toe-to-toe with the 3yo's.

16/1 is insulting to her chances of winning this in my opinion.

York 4:10 – One Evening 5/1 (1pt)

Similar to the previous race, this race has been dominated by 3y0's, they've won 9/10 in recent years so it doesn't sound great for my selection One Evening.

Trends are great, but they are there to be broken and I don't think the 3yo crop in this race is special and not enough to be put off from backing my fancy. My selection had a nightmare race at Pontefract, which can so often be the case. She came out of the stalls slow, stumbled and was hampered which meant she had to settle for last position which is never the place to be at Pontefract. She didn't let that affect her and she stuck to her task when turning for home, running strongly up the rail but didn't have enough track or time to reel back the winner. At the time, I thought the form of that race would be shoddy and on paper, the ratings that the Racing Post gave the fillies for that race would back that up, but it's turned out to be a fairly solid race. The 3rd was 2nd to Arrest on the weekend just gone. The 5th was 4th in a Listed race at Clairefontaine, which has seen the 3rd in that race finish 2nd in a Group 2. Based on that, that's up there with the strongest form on offer and when you combine it with she had a nightmare run I think she holds a great chance of winning today's race.

This filly has a superb pedigree and has all the ammunition to get better being by Galileo and out of a 3x Listed winning Mare who has produced a Group 1 winner in Random Harvest, there is surely more to come. Ryan Moore is on board, which is never a negative as I think he is the GOAT. 5/1 seems fair, and as long as Ryan gives her every chance with a clear passage, that'll do me.

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