Racing tips: The low-weighted Captain Tommy shouldn’t be overlooked at Ludlow

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A couple of frustrating efforts for Sunday's selections. Frere D'Armes cruised into contention looking like the winner but was outstayed by the winner. 

Wa Wa was another non-stayer in the Ulster National. He was on the bridle up until 2-3f from home when his gas tank emptied. I think he will be winning races off his current mark back over 3m.

Ludlow 3:00 – Captain Tommy 25/1 (0.5pt ew 3pl)

I could be going a bit crazy by backing the clear outsider of the seven-runner race, but I do think Captain Tommy has a better chance than what his odds would suggest.

I tipped up the winner in his last race, and when I was watching the race I thought he was going to be a big danger as he was travelling so powerfully and jumping well. However, it looked like he didn't quite stay the 3m 3f at Bangor that day, as he went from travelling well to going out like a light, but he definitely did show up better than what the 16L defeat looks like on paper. The handicapper dropped him 5lbs for that run, and Ian Williams has jocked up Daire McConville who will claim a further 7lbs, meaning he is 12lbs lighter than his previous run.

Today's race is obviously a much tougher race, but with that comes its positives and the main one is that he will be running off 9st 9lbs, with the nearest horse weighted at 10st 13lbs! He carried 12st 2lbs last time out, which was probably another factor to him getting tired, so this is completely different for him and he should be able to put in a nice effort at the foot of the weights and at big odds.

I thought Dibble Decker was probably the one to beat. He is 2/2 since being fitted with cheekpieces and looks like a progressive horse. He is going up in trip, but it should suit him. 3/1 is fair for that horse, and I couldn't put anyone off from backing him, but I think my selection is massively overpriced.

Lingfield 5:15 – Okaidi 20/1 (0.5pt ew)

Now you must think I'm mental, as I've picked out another big-priced EW selection in the shape of Okaidi.

The favourite, Sir Rodneyredblood, is the correct favourite on his recent form and the manner in which he won at Kempton last time out, but he's short enough in the market and I think at the prices he should be taken on. It's all well and good thinking a horse is too short in the market, but if you don't have anything to back in the race you might as well leave it, which was my thought process until seeing Okaidi.

This horse is still a maiden at the age of 6 and is 0/17, which never sounds like a good way to sell a horse's chance, but I think he is far too big in the market and could definitely finish in the places at the very least. He has a pedigree which would suggest he should be going up in trip rather than down, but the Dam is related to a fair few good sprinters like Arecibo, and when you watch how much he pulled last time out, and the way he faded in the final furlong I think it's a no brainer to drop him back in trip. He was very keen, was drawn in Stall 12 (widest of all) and managed to get to the front where he refused to settle. To see him finish 3rd that day was a great effort and the form of the race doesn't look terrible for the grade with the winner running a close race at Southwell last week and the fifth horse won easily the other day.

Today, he is drawn in stall 2, so if he breaks on terms he should be able to get a handy position, which seemed to suit last time and he won't need to use up as much petrol to do so. He gets Mollie Phillips on board this time, taking away 3lbs and that put him on a weight of 8st 2lbs.

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