Racing tips: The front running Mostawaa is well-handicapped for a big run at Brighton

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It didn't quite work out for Vespasian for one reason or another, I'm not quite sure why he ran so flat, maybe he wasn't totally in love with the ground, but for me there were no excuses.

Brighton 4:53 – Mostawaa 11/4 (1pt Win)

Similar to Monday, Tuesday's racing looks very poor, and on days like this, it's best not to get involved or not too heavily involved. However, if Mostawaa repeats the form of last time from his Hamilton run, he should be tough to beat.

Heather Main's 7yo gelding of Poet's Voice has dropped down to a very winnable handicap mark, running off 75 which is effectively 72 with Gina Mangan taking off 3lbs. He doesn't win many races, which is always a concern, but he has previously off 78 and 84, and has run well off higher ratings in better class races than the one he races in today. I think the form of the Hamilton race is strong form, the winner of that race went close at Redcar the time before in a big field handicap, and the runner-up went and won yesterday, albeit as an odds-on shot.

Brighton can favour those who have the lead, and Mostawaa is one who likes to race from the front, so if getting an uncontested lead, he could be tough to catch from the front.

Wolverhampton 5:15 – Dawn Mission 14/1 (0.5pt EW B365)

You're taking a gamble that Dawn Mission will improve for the step up in trip, as based on her runs to date she hasn't done much to say that she can win a race, even at this level.

This race looks weak on paper, and the majority of the horses in this are trying this trip for the first time, but the one with the better pedigree is Dawn Mission who is related to some very good horses on the Dam's side, who have reached 100+ rated running over trips like today. George Boughey is very good at racking up quick sequences with horses towards the lower end of the handicaps, and when he puts a horse markedly up in trip I think they have to be respected, especially when their pedigree would suggest they will appreciate it and they should be better than their current mark.

Connor Planas takes off a handy 5lbs and I think he is being slightly overlooked at big odds.

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