Racing tips: The French will be victorious in both versions of the Guineas

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I thought Belhaven had a cracking chance yesterday so to see her get beat by one of the big outsiders was a tough one to take. A few points were lost on the day with the other two runners running like they were stuck in mud.

Longchamp 2:50 – American Flag 11/8 (2pt)

Normally in the big French races, I think the UK & Ireland horses are normally the ones to focus on, but not for this race. I think the Irish and English contingency is quite weak, and I have been impressed by American Flag.

Christophe Soumillon has been riding American Flag with ice in his veins this season, riding him cold from the back of the field and coming down the outside with a strong late run. This could be a problem in a Group 1 race as the horses sat prominently might be able to kick away after turning for home, and reeling in better opposition will obviously be tougher than his recent assignments, however, the way in which he has picked up in the past two races on soft ground has been very eye-catching. His recent run looked like he might've been in trouble as Soumillon had to get lower in the saddle probably sooner than he expected, but when he hit top gear and let him stride on he stayed on powerfully, eating up the ground.

Isaac Shelby was impressive on his seasonal reappearance at Newbury on soft ground, with it being the first time he has encountered a surface that soft, and it wasn't a surprise to see him handle it as well as he did being by Night Of Thunder. However, the form of that race looks very weak, and it's a shame that Chaldean didn't get to run in that race as it would've been nice to see where the others compare to him, as he's clearly the best miler we have in the UK. That was over 7f, and Isaac Shelby was entitled to have needed that run, but I can't be confident saying that he'd stay a mile on soft ground. He won with ease at Newbury but he looked tired in the final furlong, his stride shortened and I think he might struggle seeing out the extra furlong.

Longchamp 3:30 – Blue Rose Cen EVS (2pt Whill)

For the French 1000 Guineas, I've also opted for a French horse, and I think Blue Rose Cen is the one they all have to beat. She has been nothing but impressive since her debut, and she is a filly who wears her heart on her sleeve.

You know what you're going to get with Blue Rose Cen, and that is a front-running ride. She is a very good horse from the front end and combining that with her preferred soft ground, she is a proper top-class animal. The gods were looking down on her when she received Stall 1 for this race, which is perfect for her, she can break well and get to the front without using too much energy and then the race is for Aurelien Lemaitre to dictate how quickly or slow he wants to have it.

She is already a Group 1 winner from last year, winning the Marcel Boussac by 5L, once again from the front and that was without a doubt the best performance of her career. She made her reappearance at today's track over a mile and though she wasn't as impressive, it was just a Group 3 and there's no way she would've been 100% revved up for that race, as this would have always been the main target.

I fail to see a negative to her, her form is great, she was beaten by a short-neck to Victoria Road and he went on to win a Group 1 at the Breeder's Cup, that was her sole loss since making her debut and it was against the boys, so there's nothing been lost in that defeat.

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