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Saturday was a tough day with some selections running well (Fast Buck & Schalke) and others not so well. Schalke placed at advised odds of 25/1 so some place money was returned some of the losses from the other selections.
Leopardstown 1:40
Mighty Potter is the one they all have to beat, having already won a Grade 1 as a chaser this season, so is rightfully the correct market favourite. At EVS I think he is worth taking on and I've decided to go for JAMES DU BERLAIS.
Similar to yesterday's Arkle main fancies, James Du Berlais won a race he was expected to win on his chase debut, but the way he jumped (apart from 1 fence) looked like he was a natural over fences and would be able to land some good wins at some point in his career. He was a good horse before moving over to Willie Mullins yard and though he has clearly suffered with problems he showed a good level of form when finishing second to Klassical Dream in a Grade 1 over 3m when not fancied to do so, going off at 16/1. In my opinion, though Mighty Potter has improved with his switch to fences, I don't think he's a proper top-class Grade 1 horse and might be vulnerable to an improver like James Du Berlais.
Willie Mullins has a good record in this race in recent years, winning it with Galopin Des Champs, Monkfish and Faugheen so is a race he likes to target his better novices at. He also runs Gaillard Du Mesnil but he was put in his place when finishing as runner-up to Mighty Potter. He has since gone on to win a Grade 1 himself, but that was a fairly weak Grade 1 and I expect the Mullins main hope is my selection.
It looked like he would come on for the run 35 days ago, he was quite free and looked quite tired in the final furlong or so, but that's to be expected after 600+ days off the track. There is a concern about the ground, but he handled Yielding ground okay and just because he's only really ever run on soft ground, doesn't mean he won't be okay on this. If it is too dry I'm more than sure than Willie will not run him due to him having problems in the past couple of seasons, and they'll look after him.
Leopardstown 2:40
Having a low weight in this race has been needed in most of the recent renewals of this race, but looking through the horses towards the bottom of the weights they all have to bounce back to some kind of form, including last years winner Birchdale who has shown nothing since landing this prize last year.
Backing the favourite in a race of this nature isn't something I'd normally do but as we saw when I backed Carefully Selected in a similar race, they do win. INDIGO BREEZE is the favourite and is probably on the short side around 7/2 but the form of his last run back in November is hard to knock and I think the drop in trip could be well suited for this strong travelling type.
He finished a close second to The Real Whacker who has since won a Grade 2, producing an RPR of 160. It looked like Indigo Breeze might've got outstayed that day and looking at The Real Whacker's next run, it's not a surprise as he looks like a relentless front-running galloper. Based on that run, I think a handicap mark of 133 is well within reach and he might have a fair few pounds to spare, the problem is many trainers would've eyed this race up for their horse and probably got their handicap mark down ready for a crack at it. However, this lightly raced chaser is still young and is still definitely on the climb, so could take some stopping if getting a prominent position, jumping well and avoiding trouble.
14:03 Hereford – family pot 7/1
14:33 Hereford – sindarella 13/2
15:33 Hereford – ardmayle 5/1
14:55 Musselburgh – bardenstown lad 11/1
15:55 Musselburgh – first account 9/2 (nap) should be able to get a nice jar of pickled onions with the winnings on this One !
Garners pickled onions are a culinary delight and leave my taste buds dancing a jig of delight 🌰
M and s ones are particularly delicious !
E/w bet of the day
13:10 re tard town – de lady in red 28/1 e/w
High definition 3-40 leopardstown 🇮🇪
6-1 each way
2-1 without facile Vega NAP 🏇.
This is without doubt a better flat horse than facile Vega so you can draw a line through their flat form and concentrate on hurdles form.
Facile Vega like energumene and chacun por soir looks a typical Mullins hype horse who has racked up a string of ones in its form figures without being tested and then found wanting when asked a question.
He hasn’t beat much in 2 hurdle runs at odds of 1-9 and 2-9 while high definition didn’t beat much either but although its jumping was sketchy, I thought he negotiated a 27 runner field quite well for a debutant in this sphere.
Don’t get me wrong, high definition will need to be spot on jumping wise, hence I’m going each way instead of straight win, but if he keeps tabs on facile Vega jumping the last I’m confident he can win.
Other scenario is he jumps novicey again and facile wins by 30 lengths which as odds of 4-7 suggest is more likely to happen, but that’s the gamble.
Be another cracking days racing in leopardstown today whatever transpires
I’m on the straight win I trust your better judgement haha
Eddy de balme 3-07 pau 🇳🇱 7-2…….
Pied Piper 3-10 leopardstown.
16-1 bet365 ew extra 3 places.
Small bet 66-1 ew 2 places @corals
Last run was excusable due to a medical condition, apart from that run, no way should this be a 66-1 shot.
Elliott/Russell wouldn’t bother if it was a no hoper.
Would nt supprise me if the Williams wedge combo do some damage at Hereford today
The Williams wedge combo.
Great musicians they were, used to tour the old people’s homes round here singing covers of peters and lee, the carpenters and rod Jane and Freddys greatest hits’feat zippy”
Hopefully today can go better than yesterday.
A Wave of the Sea gave it a good go but the other 2 bets were just woeful.
1.10 Mollys Glory 25/1 ew 6 places
Probably lots of well h’capped horses in this race and I think MG is one of them.
She was 13 1/2L behind current fav Liberty Dance off level weights and made 2 blunders in that race. She then followed that up by just being beaten 1/2L by Belle the Lioness. BTL was then beaten 5 1/2L by Liberty Dance.
Today Liberty Dance has to give MG 27lbs if you include jockeys claim. Jockey has had 3 winners in the past 14 days so good value for the allowance.
If Liberty Dance were to win this race must have strong claims for the Mares Novice at the festival.
1.40 No Bet
James De Berlais is the fly in the ointment and I’ve a small ew at 33s on him for the BANC but MP is battle hardened and id be surprised if he didnt win this race.
2.10 No Bet as it should be a penalty kick for Blue Lord and we probably won’t learn anything we didn’t already know.
Just watch the bookies cut him though for the CC regardless. Any excuse !!
2.40 Mars Harper 12/1 ew 5 places
Only beaten 3 1/4L by Mighty Potter off levels whose rated 160 so if reproducing that type of form should be thereabouts
3.10 Irish Champion Hurdle
Really want Honeysuckle to win but I just can’t see it happening.
3.40
Regardless of the betting, this is a real test for Facile Vega and If he does win this well then the Supreme should be a formality.
Irish Point was only beaten a head by Marine Nationale who is clear 2nd fav for the Supreme but I also think In The Pocket is a classy horse and could give FV most to worry about.
Then there’s High Definition who has class and won well on debut.
Will be interesting to see how it pans out
4.10 Hard to look beyond Gaelic Warrior who has had numerous entries for his next run including the Betfair Hurdle but they have decided to run him here.
4.40 Lily de Berlais 4/1
Won this race last year against arguably a stronger line up than today. Recent run behind Jetara will have put him right for today and that horse has done nothing wrong since
BOL
Plenty of money for both Vanillier and The Goffer in the 2.40.
With the Cromwell yard on fire probably not surprising that money has come for Vanillier but I have one eye on The Goffer for the Kim Muir so I’m hoping he doesn’t win today as he’s currently off 138 and the ceiling for the KM is 145 so win today then add in the UK tax would probably put him out of it.
Mars Harper 2-40 Leop 14-1 paying 7 places
The Bosses Oscar 2-55 Miss 16-1 paying 5 places
Skybet
The bosses Oscar came 3rd so a bit of money back
Leopardstown 1-10 Ballybawn Belter 16/1 ew bet365
Top shout 👏 👌
Brilliant tip. Saw it yesterday and stuck it in my lucky 15
Mighty Potter 5/4
Blue Lord
Honeysuckle 2/1
Facile Vega
Gaelic Warrior 5/4
Fun Fun Fun 6/4
rambrant jac 2.40 ew
HanSankey 1.55 ew
liberty dance 1.10 well done all winners yesterday
Ballybawn belter boooooom 16/1. Winner
Hope some of you were on
Wasn’t on but a boooom to you plugster 🏇💥
Hasankey 1-55 Musselburgh 16-1 ew 4 places SKYBET….
Court royale 3-33 Hereford 6-1 ew 3 places
************************************
That’s my 5 losers sorted now 😆
Off to watch spurs draw 2-2 with man city now,
Good luck chaps and well done again plug 🏇
DC
🙈 the gofer
Walk in the park for Mighty Potter
Impressive DC
Turners becoming a fascinating race now. Surely AI goes there now but will Sir Gerhard also go there ?
I still think on Spring ground (weather permitting) and the trip will be perfect for Banbridge but its one race to wait until the day cos there’s no value whatsoever at present
Ok so we now know Blue Lord won’t be winning the CC this year anyway.
That hasn’t gone to plan.
The Goffer will probably get 5lbs minimum for that, add in the UK tax and he’ll be above 145 cut off fot the Kim Muir.
Back to the drawing board !!
🙈
Might just be Honeysuckle’s last run.
Facile vega 🙈
Barry Connell said this morning on Nick Luck Marine Nationale would WIN the Supreme that 5s will be well gone now.
Yeah seen that Deb. He might be right. Unfortunately for me I backed MN for the wrong race.
Will wait for the day itself now probably get a better price
Absolutely ridiculous from Townend. What was he thinking going off that fast.
Tank was empty by 3f out on a horse with a finishing kick.
Not his best weekend of riding and if he keeps it up he’ll be no2 behind Danny.
That cant be the excuse DC it went out like a light pretty sure something will be wrong possibly broke a blood vessel.
No, WM on Irish TV just said nothing wrong with the horse and he just went too fast.
Wasn’t very happy about it and criticised PT for doing so.
Ok mate i never seen that but the horse was beat even before turning for home surely that cant be his run.
Gaelic Warrior being hammered 7/4 last night into 4/5
All over Gaelic Warrior and double with Fun Fun Fun so hopefully moneys correct
Deb
Absolutely not his form when you consider he already beat the winner 6L.. Needs to be settled in behind.
PT just admitted to going off too fast but also said there might be something else wrong with him
Maybe a mix of going to fast and even the ground being a bit to lively for him.
If he does turn up in supreme he will certainly get plenty pace to come off.
Irish CH winning time…..3.52
Novice Hurdle……….3.49
🇺🇸
Aquaduct -R3…Girl Trouble 7/4
R7…Winnit 15/8
R8…Funny Joke 3/1 Nb/**** (Bob Atres stable going well and hoping fitness v favourite and bit of improvement does it)
Santa Anita -R6…Masteroffoxhounds 7/2 Nap/**** Side bet $3 trifecta 2-4-7
Decent last night with some good single’s but usual wring ones in multiples with 2/4.
Rocket Dan was sespecially sweet with Bet365 offering 7/1 all day till about 20 minutes before the race while everyone else was around 11/4!
11/10 to place and 3 places from 8 runners so smashed into that!
GL all and well done to the winners today! 👍
Nap from my notes/tracker and surprised at the price although decent types in the graded race I suppose. Noted “doing the dressage out the stalls only to be flying home Rispoli on board”
Well Umberto Rispoli is off for ‘Hal of Famer’ Mike Smith. I backed this horse due to excellent 2nd to Hong Kong Harry,11 wins from 12 and now a G2 winner. Beat a few of these before a few races back.
GL yoll
Becoming a right f&#king pain in my f@nny pack Chad Brown in USA! 😆
Yes his horses are open to improvement like others but cmon he’s just reversed a 9L spanking there with Girl Trouble who’s actually ran faster than last run too??
Bender town haha
Eh …Schites Creek Dazzman?
🇺🇸 Frickin Favs out Aquaduct race 7…so good news for Funny Joke but Bet365 will have deductions so I’ll get about 15/8 best IF wins?
🇮🇪
Money was right for Gaelic Warrior,got 5/4 and he done it nicely.
Money was wrong with Fun Fun Fun at 6/4 he goes off 9/4 and cruised it. Good old best odds!
“Funny auld game,hardest game in the world…30 years man a boy!”
DC do you think Honeysuckle will run at all now?
Confirmed
Honeysuckle WILL NOT run in the CH. Mares or nothing
Personally I think that’s crazy she doesn’t deserve to come out the race after the Champ hurdle unless they are that desperate to retire her on a win.
Imagine if Honeysuckle & Epatante turn up with all the other usual mares.
Shaping up to be the race of the meeting if they all turn up.
Don’t agree with it though
molly’s mango 4.40 ew well done all winners yesterday
Fun fun fun easy as ,backed it again at 11/4 could not believe he went out to that price
Got 9/4 best odds but didn’t know it touched 11/4! Easy as ,as you say! 👌
Scrolled up seen your post there thinking you be pleased with 11/4 after De Vega but 16/1 shout ThePlug? 👏
Didn’t see it? 🤷♂️ 🙄
Recoba
I doubt she’ll run but there’s still plenty of time for the Yard to ponder over making a final decision on her.
As Deb says they might want her to go out on a high by winning the Mares but that’s no penalty kick with that field.
Just comparing the CH and the Novice Hurdle
By the 4th Hurdle the Novices were 18L ahead and 20L ahead at the last on the far side yet only finished 4/5L ahead at the line
Crazy considering it was the same jockey making the running in both races DC
Fair point
Yeah 1 more race likely DC wether wins or not I’d think.
Aqueduct – 18:50 perceived 7/1