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After what has felt like an eternity it was nice to have a winner (two) on Thursday. I feel like we should've had three winners on the day but Charlie Deutsch chucked it on Dentley De Mee, so two will have to do.
Bangor-on-Dee 2:20 – No Cruise Yet 11/2 (1pt ew 4 places)
Some of you might remember NO CRUISE YET who has been tipped up twice his season, on both of his runs for this campaign. After he finished as runner-up on seasonal reappearance due to a lack of fitness, I mentioned we'll get our money back on him the next time he runs. Sure enough, we did when he went to Haydock and won in game fashion to fend off a decent horse from the Twiston-Davies yard.
The handicapper hasn't gone mad on his last run and has only put him up by 3 lbs in the handicap, so in my eyes, he is still weighted to go in again. Today's race is different as it's a drop in class, meaning he will be carrying a fair chunk of weight, but he is a horse who has all the attributes you'd like to win a National race like this. He jumps, he stays and he travels, there's not much that he can't do off his current handicap mark. The ground is drying up a bit and that might go against him slightly, so that's why I've opted for an EW bet instead of going for the win on the nose.
This is obviously a competitive race, but I believe in this horse and he if jumps well he has to be bang there at the finish.
Kempton 2:00 – Reilly 13/2 (0.5pt ew)
From one horse carrying a decent chunk of weight to another. REILLY will have a tough ask on his hands to win this race off 12st but I think his price in the market is far too big based on his last run.
I thought his run the race before last time out at Warwick was probably the best piece of form in the race. He pushed an in-form horse all the way to the line and that was on his chase debut, so you can't fault him for that effort. The form of the race looks to be working out nicely. The winner didn't follow that win up, but that came in the Classic Chase at Warwick (class 1) where he wasn't disgraced back in 4th/13, and to be honest, I think he can win off his current mark of 126. The Warwick race where Reilly did finish second has produced winners from the 3rd and 4th, and even Fairlawn Flyer who was pulled up in that race has gone on to win since.
I understand why punters are latching onto the horses who arrive with recent wins under their belt, but I think Harry Skelton's horse will love this track and will make a much better chaser than a hurdler in time.
Kempton 3:00 – Killer Kane 4/1 (1pt win)
This is a strange race as you have some unexposed horses who have looked okay over fences so far, you have a returning horse in the shape of Dog Of War who will be of interest if the money arrives and you have horses who have dropped down in the handicap like KILLER KANE.
For me, Killer Kane has to be the one they have to beat. He is a previous C&D winner who has dropped down to his last winning handicap mark of 126. He managed to win a Class 1 Listed handicap chase off this current handicap mark last season, so that goes to show what he can do when the handicapper gives him a chance, and this race looks much easier than when he won that race.
From his win at Kempton previously he did beat Valsheda, there is a small swing in the weights in the favour of the latter-named horse but Valsheda seems a bit of a boat who probably needs further, and I can't see a switch in the form line. In that Listed race Killer Kane won, he beat Dorking Lad by 12L, whilst only receiving 1lb, today then will run off level weights and though Dorking Lad won recently, he'll find this much tougher and at the prices I feel like Killer Kane is being disrespected.
14:20 Bangor on dee- eclair de guye 13/2
14:50 Bangor on dee – chestnut pete 12/1 e/w
16:00 Bangor on de – rouge de l quest 15/2 e/w
16:35 Bangor on de – kenahope 10/1 e/w
14:40 Southwell – Bristol hill 10/1
Hopefully a couple of these lazy swines will win !
Short price pussy weasel coward bet !
Dundalk 16:25 – San Andreas 6/5 ! Go nuts !
Good luck everyone ! Fingers crossed for a early retirement accumulator haha someone some day gotta land it surely !
Good morning and happy Friday to everyone. We are almost at the end of the week.
1:20 Bangor on Dee – Secret Investor & 1:30 Kempton – Iorens Double
1:20 Bangor on Dee – Secret Investor & 3:55 Dundalk – Okita Soushi Double
5:15 Chelmsford – Hellavapace @ 7/1
7:45 Chelmsford – Bond Boy @ 7/2
🐝🍀
As we are nearly at four weeks before the Festival, what ante-post bets, if any, do you have?
Personally don’t have any at the moment, and I think the value has probably already gone so will leave it for this year.
Loads done, some still alive but quite a lot have gone in the bin.
However I rarely use my own money as I use all my free bets for Cheltenham. It reduces the amount of money I would spend on the 4 days as by that time I’d like to think I’d have covered most angles through multiples or backing 2 or 3 in a race without it costing anything.
You’re right about value though, very little to be had but I started back in Oct last year when Constitution Hill was a 7/4 shot and Jonbon was 5/1.
Once I’m back home later I’ll put up what I have that’s still got a realistic chance.
My biggest bet is on Delta Work in the Cross Country Chase – Skybet are going 11/10 NRNB. That looks a tremendous price for what I consider one of the festival bankers.
I’ve also got a 5/1 NRNB double on Maries Rock (mares hurdle) and Constitution Hill (Ch Hurdle), also with Skybet.
Ive also backed Maries Rock in the Mares Hurdle at 6.6 on Betfair
I’m hoping Honeysuckle doesn’t run obv, but just in case the owners of Maries Rock decide to switch races then I’ve also backed her in the Stayers at 9/1 (on Betfair) for small stakes.
And I backed Edwardstone a while back after his impressive win in the Tingle Creek, got 4/1 on Betfair. I’ve since laid my stake back at lower odds, to give me a free bet on Alan King’s majestic beast.
Mares novice hurdle LUCCIA(granddaughter’s name) at 7/2
Triumph hurdle LOSSIEMOUTH (clue in my username 😉) at 11/4
A win double, my only antepost bet for Cheltenham.
Accum 1
Constitution Hill 7/4
Jonbon 5/1
Delta Work 15/8
Brandi Love 7/1
Accum 2
Constitution Hill 11/8
Energumene 9/4
Delta Work 15/8
Allaho 11/8
Ew patent
Lord Accord 33/1 ultima
Andy Dufresne 16/1 Grand Annual
Fastorslow 16/1 Plate
L15
Hiddenvalley Lake 11/2 AB
Impare Et Passe 6/1 Ballymore
Gerri Colombe 7/1 BANC
Flooring Porter 5/1 Stayers (only 50/50 to run)
Singles
James De Berlais 20/1 ew BANC
Conflated 33/1 ew GC
Blazing Khal 7/1 stayers (runs sunday)
Salvador Ziggy 25/1 ew Pertemps
Metamorpheus 25/1 ew Boodles (posted yesterday and already cut before he even runs) !!!
As I said earlier some are free bets so not too expensive on the pocket
love actually 2.00 well done all winners yesterday
Eureka creek 1-50 bangor
5-1 win
6-4 top 2 finish
Bet365
Oscar Elite Ultima 20-1
Music of Tara coral cup 28-1
Wilde about Oscar pertemps 25-1
Lunar Power county hurdle 25-1
These are my Cheltenham picks
hot race at 1.40, THE TRON 8/1 placed 8/10 times over C&D, perhaps a bit beyond him, shouldn’t win but an EW player.
3.35 Doctor Dog Eggs (e/w)
bretney pulled up this week never gone beyond 3m2f, wins easy as you like, PU put me off, typical!
Ramo 4-00 Bangor 9-2
Esme Shelby 4-35 Bangor 4-35 Bangor 14-1 ew 4 places SKYBET
whenthepenny drops 4.35 ew well done all winners today
🇦🇪
Meydan
4.50…Shirls Bee 6/4.
Few nice horses near top of Market but beat a couple that have went in to win Stakes race on there next run and is one of two horses from the barn considered if all goes well because my worth a shot at ‘US Triple Crown’?
Wee C/Tricast or straight for a £1 or 2 with 6-9-8
Afternoon all
Pepsi cat 5.25☘️☘️gl all
Cheltenham picks that were placed in November
Tahmoras supreme Tuesday 1-20 20-1
Mighty Potter Arkle Chase Tuesday 2-10 9-1
Home by the Lee stayers hurdle Thursday 3-30 16-1
Each way patent