Racing tips: Shampion will boost the good form of Atzeni and Varian

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Blue For You was a good 6/1 winner for me yesterday. I thought Danny Tudhope was going to mess it up again, but thankfully the horse has enough in the locker and off his current mark to get the job done. Lilac Road was simply outclassed in the Group 1 for Fillies', I thought she ran to form but isn't as good as those ahead of her. Eidikos was just shocking, nothing more needs to be said. I think she might not like the track, but I'd like to hear from the trainer.

York 1:50

It's not something I do too often, as it seems wrong in my eyes but I do think my two selections in this have a very good chance and I'd be fuming with myself if I tipped one up and the other one won, so I'm going for both, and thankfully they are both good EW prices, so if they place it's still a good bet as well.

The first one I like is ONESMOOTHOPERATOR trained by Brian Ellison. This horse has form tied in with Charging Thunder, so if you like the latter horse you must like the chances of my selection. He ran a cracking race at Ascot in their Shergar Cup meeting a couple of weeks ago where he finished 3rd off 10st, finishing a head behind Charging Thunder who finished second. I can see a reverse in that form as Onesmoothoperator was held up in last place and had to go wide to make his challenge and was staying on strongly at the line, whereas Charging Thunder had the best seat in the house and still didn't manage to win. That form alone is probably not good enough to win this, but I think his previous form warrants a lot of respect.

He finished last in a Class 1 Listed race at York behind Without A Fight who has since won a Group 3. That race was a step too far for Brian Ellison's 4yo, but he didn't disgrace himself in defeat. He travelled smartly through the race and didn't get the clearest of runs, he managed to go past a couple of them, but then his stamina at that level weakened and he got repassed by Mandoob and John Leeper. I think that run showed that he is capable of a big run in a big handicap over slightly shorter against a lower calibre of horses, as he put up a good fight in Class 1 company. That run produced an RPR of 103, so it goes to show he wasn't exactly too outclassed when you consider the likes of Euchen Glen and Kemari were only a couple of lengths ahead.

My only issue with this horse is that he can be held up, and if that's the case again today, he'll need a lot of luck in running, but he's good odds and definitely a big player in this if getting the breaks.

My second fancy is PARACHUTE. I was impressed with his penultimate run at Newbury where he stayed on strongly at this trip, and looked like a horse who is capable of winning off a 4lb higher mark and on a similar track to Newbury. I wouldn't say Newbury and York are exactly the same, but they are both galloping tracks which are left-handed and have a good-sized straight which is enough for horses like Parachute to get into top gear. I think this track will suit as we saw at Newbury, it did take a while for him to get into top gear, but when he did he won in good style. The form of that race has been franked by the runner-up who has won since and recently finished runner-up. As for his most recent run at Chester, you have to forgive him for that as he simply didn't enjoy the track, and I think a return to a more conventional track, he'll be a danger in this and is also good EW odds.

I think he is definitely capable of running well off his current mark of 89. He finished 3rd in a Royal Ascot handicap last year off a mark of 88, as well as winning a Class 3 off 84 the time before. William Buick is booked for the ride, so that's an obvious plus.

Something which I thought was interesting was when looking at Mahrajaan. I thought he had a decent chance in this. Personally, I don't think he goes through with the job as he travels well, but I think he is a thinker. William Haggas has opted for the cheekpieces, which could bring out improvement, but I think this track might not suit him. He has won well here once before over further, but his recent run here when going off at short odds for a competitive handicap was disappointing. I had a look at his sire's stats for this track in the last five years. Kitten's Joy is 3/27 at York, and two of them were from Roaring Lion, who was a monster when he was racing, so it goes to show that his progeny don't seem to handle this track. Maybe that's something to think about if you're planning on having a few quid on Mahrajaan.

York 3:00

I could be going bonkers with this selection, but I think Ismail Mohammed is a very good trainer and when he put Ryan Moore on NEVER JUST A DREAM on debut, they knew this was a nice horse. Unfortunately, it didn't quite go to plan or how they expected it to go as he was shocking on debut, finishing 8th/10 and went off 11/4F when he was available at more than double those odds the night before. However, he showed his true colours last time around at Wolverhampton when winning with ease on the front end, producing an RPR of 91. Now, this is a big jump to go from a Class 5 Novice from Wolverhampton to the Gimcrack Group 2 at York, but I get the feeling there is a lot of ability with this lad.

Ismail Mohammed hasn't got the biggest stable, but he knows what time of day it is when he gets a good horse in his hands. He landed the Lowther at this meeting last year with Zain Claudette, so he knows what it's like to send one to this meeting, and the kind of level of horse which is required. He has been quoted saying “He's a quality horse. I Like him a lot”, obviously he's going to say good things about his horse, but I get the feeling this horse could fly under the radar and outrun his odds. I'd advise smaller stakes on him as this race looks red-hot. Keep an eye out on the market.

York 3:35

I know it's a huge ask for a 2yo to win a race of this nature, but when I saw how impressive THE PLATINUM QUEEN was at Goodwood, I instantly thought of the Nunthorpe. This filly is all speed and York could play to her strengths. The time she set was rapid (broke the 2yo track record), shown by the fact it was quicker than the Molecomb earlier in the card which was a Group 3, and the winner carried 2lb less than The Platinum Queen. To compare it to the older horses, Khaadem won the King George Qatar Stakes at a time of 56.46s, which was 0.04s quicker than The Platinum Queen who carried 2lbs less. Based on the times you have to say it's close between the races, but if you look at today's conditions, Richard Fahey's runner carries 8st 2lbs, which is 27lbs lighter than Khaadem! For me, the older horses are going to have a very tough time on their hands to defend against that weight allowance, as we're not dealing with an average 2yo sprinter, this could be a horse ahead of her time. Richard Fahey said she is a “big strong filly – not pony sized by any means”. Even though she is getting the allowances, this is still a huge ask as it's daunting for the younger horses when they range up next to the older horses, but I think if a horse can do it, then this is the perfect chance.

York 4:10

3yo's have won the only two renewals of this race, so even though that's only a small sample size, I think it is best to stick to the younger fillies in the lineup. The one I like to at the bottom of the weights, SHAMPION.

I was a big fan of hers when she finished second to Shaara at Haydock on her penultimate start. She supported interference that day, but when she was brought wide, she stayed on very well and looked like a horse who could be well above average. The form of that race looks strong as the winner, who was carrying a penalty that day, has since won again in a Class 3 handicap, producing an RPR of 103, where she did win with relative ease.

Shampion then went to Windsor where she won by 4L to a previous winner back in second. Though the form of that race might not amount to much, it was nice to see her get off the mark and do it in good fashion. I think her opening handicap mark of 84 is well within reach, and if she settles better than last time, she has to be going very close in this race today, even though it's a much tougher race.

I'm not Atzeni's biggest fan, but he's been riding really well of late, and his 26% SR in the last fourteen days would suggest that. Roger Varian is also in good form, operating at a 21% SR in the last fortnight.

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