Racing tips: Robcour could have another smart prospect on their hands with An Tobar

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I’m away and was on my way to a Christmas doo so I can’t comment on the runs of Saturdays runners. I saw Inch House won and Under Control was well out of contention, but I don’t know what happened in the race. I picked out the horses before I set off, so fingers crossed Sunday has some winners.

Fairyhouse 1:25 – An Tobar 2/1 (1pt)

This race has been won by some very smart horses in the past, but based on efforts so far I don't think it looks as strong as previous renewals of this race which has seen the likes of Marine Nationale and Envoi Allen win. I think a lightly raced horse could win this race and that's why I've opted for An Tobar.

This 6yo gelding of Gentlewave made a nice start to life over rules with an easy win at Fairyhouse in a maiden race over 2m on heavy ground. He jumped well on debut, which was to be expected having previously won his sole PTP by 20L, and he kept the odds-on favourite backers happy with a 4.25L win. The form of the race doesn't look particularly strong, but the runner-up has won next time out and chances are the third-placed horse trained by Gordon Elliott will have a nice future as well. He won with ease that day and it wasn't a great surprise to see him backed into the odds he went off at as his easy 20L success in the PTP race has seen many subsequent winners, with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th all winning races in that code since the defeat to An Tobar.

What I think is interesting is that Henry De Bromhead is willing to chuck this one straight into the fire of a Grade 1 on just his second run. I always get the impression Henry isn't one for rushing horses through the grades unless he fully believes they can do themselves justice and have a decent shot of winning. He has only had two runners in this race in the last ten years, which saw his horse falling when challenging in the 2016 renewal, he went off favourite as well. His only other runner was a 16/1 shot who had previously run in a Graded race, ultimately finishing 5th, but I think is does prove he's not like an Elliott or Mullins who have massive stables stacked with Grade 1 potential, so he has to pick and chose when it's suitable to run his horses at this level. I'm not saying Henry is a small yard, but in comparison to the Irish giants, he is still a way behind.

An Tobar is owned by Robcour and they sent Irish Point for this race last year on just his second run, which is similar to An Tobar. Irish Point won his sole hurdle start as an odds-on shot and then came straight here, which is very interesting that the owners have opted for the same route with this horse.

I think if the ground was good then Encanto Bruno would be of major interest, but they seem to avoid soft ground with him. Farren Glory probably needs a bit further as his pedigree and running style would suggest.

Southwell 2:20 – Whizz Kid 11/4 (1pt)

With the cold weather heavily affecting the jumps winter season with plenty of cards being called off, Southwell have put up a bumper card for the jumps horses. Though this is not ideal, I think you can still find value in those races. With bumper races normally run at a slow pace, I think you're going to need some speed so I thought Whizz Kid was a bet in this race.

You have some proven flat handicappers in this race, but they either want 2m on the flat, which would normally be run at a good gallop or they aren't very good on the flat. Whizz Kid was a proven classy horse in Germany before moving over to hurdles, he was consistently putting up performances in the 90s and even reached 103 when winning over 12f. He is the classiest flat horse in the lineup and should have too much pace if this was to turn into a sprint, which is so often the case in these races. He seems in great form with a win on the board already this season and there's no doubting his fitness.

Sarsons Risk is probably my idea of the main threat, especially with the 10lb claimer on board. He ran a decent race on the AW at Newcastle a couple of weeks ago.

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