Racing tips: Returning to the AW makes Notre Belle Bet a cracking EW bet

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Feel like I've said this a lot recently, but thanks to Cairnzy for stepping in for me yesterday as I couldn't post any selections due to falling ill. Hopefully, you all managed to get some winners yesterday, and fingers crossed I can help you get some more today.

Also, hopefully, some of you got on Marhaba The Champ on Monday who won at 8/1. It goes to show you shouldn't always be concerned if your horse drifts, they don't know what odds they are! 

Nottingham 3:55

It's the Series Final day at Nottingham so they have some good competitive handicaps, so you should be able to get some good odds on some horses at there today.

For my first selection, I have gone for MELAKAZ who has done nothing but improve this season for trainer Robert Stephens, and there's no reason why he can't continue his progression of a mark of 70.

To see him run such a big race on seasonal return on turf would've been a big sigh of relief for connections as he has shown improvement on the AW at the start of this year, where he had previously shown not too much on the turf last season. He racked up 3 wins on the bounce at Lingfield, so to see him finish 2nd at Haydock was a very nice run, especially off a 202-day break. He only finished a length behind a well-bred daughter of Postponed whilst giving away 1lb in weight even though the winner was 8lbs better in ratings. The trip didn't seem a concern where he stayed on strongly off what seemed to be a bit of a slow gallop, so the faster they go in today's race the better it should suit.

Though I am confident of a big run, the wide draw of 17 is a concern to me, so for that reason, I'll be playing him as an EW bet (5 places with Bet365, not sure about others). I was tempted for going with two in this race with Saint Riquier catching my eye, but I decided not to, but it wouldn't surprise me if Ian William's horse runs well.

Kempton 6:00

This is a cracking race for the middle of the week and I can see arguments for why you could back any of them. The one I think is slightly overpriced is NOTRE BELLE BETE.

This horse went 3/3 on the AW in the early parts of the year when being transferred to Andrew Balding's yard from D J Bunyan in Ireland. It seems clear that he appreciates that surface more than turf, as he is 0/12 on the grass, so a return to Kempton is definitely seen as a positive. He won a 13k Class 2 handicap off a mark of 92 which produced an RPR of 106, where he probably won better than the winning margin of a short-head would suggest. The runner-up had the run of the race and Notre Belle Bete had to quicken up from behind, which he did in good style.

The time before at Wolverhampton he beat Baldomero who runs in this today, and though the weight is in the favour of the previous runner-up I think you can say that it probably doesn't mean he'll reverse the form. Baldomero also had the run of the race when they met and was at least 2-3 lengths clear when they turned for home, but Notre Belle Bete managed to bridge that gap and win in the final strides, so the fact he beat that horse when the other had everything in his favour suggests he could contain him again. Baldomero is the favourite for this and Notre Belle Bete is double his price so I know which one I'd rather back.

I get the feeling this race has been the plan for a while. He had a mid-season break of 79 days, before making his return at Ascot 3 weeks ago. He raced in last and wasn't exactly asked for maximum effort, so that would've blown away the cobwebs for this race and I think he could run a nice race and is a definite EW player.

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