Racing tips: Peking Rose can topple the odds-on favourite at Newbury

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It was nice to return with a winner, with Java Point winning at shortened odds of 6/4. It was a strange old race, with him looking majorly outpaced, but the step up in trip definitely suited as he stayed on strongly to land the spoils. As for the other selection, she was unlucky that she got clattered by a faller, which brought her to a standstill. The fact she finished fourth, and nearly placed is a mighty effort, and I think she could've gone close without the interference, she is one to keep an eye on in the future.

Newbury 3:30

On paper, and in reality this race is between two horses, and probably for the majority of punters it's a one horse race. However, out of the two I am siding with the larger odds horse in PEKING ROSE. In my opinion, the odds on offer are good value and he is well worth a punt against the favourite who is odds-on.

Personally, I can see why the favourite is the odds he is, but I would not touch him with a bargepole, as I'm not fully convinced he's as good as what people thought he might be. When he finished 2nd to the Charles Byrnes at Cheltenham in the November meeting, people thought he could reverse the form when they step up in trip, but he didn't and then he ran an average race in the Lanzarote hurdle at Kempton where he finished 4th. You might say finishing 4th in a valuable handicap is good and the fact I say it was average is harsh. I think it was average for a horse who is a novice, plenty of improvement to come and had a decent reputation of being a contender for some decent races at this time of the year, surely he should've been winning or going very close off a mark of 138 in that race. I think he is definitely worth taking on today, when you consider his best form has come on good ground, and his jumping isn't all that great.

Fergal O'Briens horse is no mug at all. He was a very classy bumper horse, shown by the fact he finished 2nd in a Grade 2 bumper race at the Grand National meeting. That run produced an RPR of 133, which is very high for a bumper race, and the form of that race now looks quite good, as he was 1.75L ahead of Grade 1 winner, Stage Star. Since then, he has been okay over hurdles, getting one win and being placed on the other two occasions. The form isn't outstanding by any means, but he has been behind some nice types in Shallwehaveonemore, who is a good horse for Gary Moore, and would've won on the weekend just gone (in a Grade 2) if he jumped any of the last two hurdles with fluency.

Connections have decided to put him up in trip, and I think it is worth trying. Based on his pedigree, this step up in trip could bring out improvement being a half-brother to a Grade 2 runner-up over this trip, and ran other respectable races over this distance, reaching a rating of 140. He ran on strongly in his bumper races, but didn't quite have the pace to challenge, so he has always seemed like a horse who would relish this trip. The ground won't be an issue, with him having form on soft and is a previous winner on this surface.

Newbury 4:05

I'm not going to go overboard with this selection, as there is a much higher chance of him being pulled up or finishing at the back of the screen. However, this horse is extremely well handicapped, due to his poor form, but if he rolls back the years and it all clicks today, he could be a tough horse to catch from the front, if they let him have an easy lead. VIVE LE ROI is the biggest outsider in this contest, but he's my pick with a small EW bet.

I could be going crazy, and like I just mentioned, he has more chance of being pulled up, but his odds combined with his old form, runstyle, and bottom weight don't quite add up to me and I think he is worth the risk of a small play. The booking of Jamie Moore does catch the eye, with this only being his fourth ride for Tony Carroll, and you know what you're going to get from Jamie, and that is brute force, power and none stop trying. This horse has been campaigned over shorter than ideal trips, but they've decided to put him back over 3m on a C&D he has won over before, which is funnily enough the scene of his last win from back in 2018 when he was given an easy lead and they couldn't real him back. That was off an 18lb higher mark, so if he retains a fraction of his ability of old, he could reproduce this. His best runs have come from making the running, so I beg for one thing, and that is that this horse runs from the front, if he doesn't then I'll know my fate before it's even started.

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