Racing tips: No Cruise Yet to make a mockery of his rating of 109

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After a good run of things it seems like the last couple of days is proving why this game is so tough as it seems difficult for me to get a winner. Saturdays are normally the toughest day of the week, but I can assure you nothing has changed with my studying and love for finding a winner and securing a profit.

Solo ran a cracking race at Ascot. He had no excuses for his loss other than not being good enough and when that happens I can come away and think what if this or what if that? I simply picked the wrong horse and that's horse racing, we move on. Cat Tiger on the other hand jumped nothing like I was expecting and I am used to. He made some bad mistakes and that cost him in the end. He travelled like a horse who could potentially cause a few problems to the others but just before turning for home, his battery became flat and that was probably the bad jumps catching up with him. Hopefully, he'll come down a few lbs for that and I might revisit him, depending on the race/odds.

Haydock 12:10

This looks like a tricky race, but one thing I'm sure of is that Tahmuras is too short in the betting. I feel like you might be a little crazy if you're taking odds of 6/4 or shorter for the Nicholls horse. Don't get me wrong, he looks like a good horse, but 6/4 seems too short based on what he has achieved so far and at those odds, he has to be taken on.

With him being so short it has meant my selection is a nice price, not as nice as I might've been hoping for, but it's still decent. SNAKE ROLL made a very good impression on hurdles/rules debut for Lucinda Russell up at Kelso. He won by 15L and he did that with ease. He might've been somewhat flattered because he had the run of the race, but I don't think that would've made a slight difference as he did it comfortably. Granted, he didn't beat a strong field, but neither did Tahmuras, yet he is much shorter in the betting and produced a much worse RPR.

The form of Snake Roll's PTP runner-up run is an interesting piece of form. PTP form doesn't always work out or be worth the paper it's written on, but it seems quite strong. The winner was purchased and is now trained by Lucinda as well, he has won a hurdle race on his only start for the yard after being backed into 4/9F in a three-runner contest. The Fifth-placed horse in the PTP has since won 2/2 over hurdles for David Pipe and recently produced an RPR of 135 on his latest start, as well as winning a PTP race on his next start after finishing fifth. Though the fourth-placed horse hasn't run since he has picked acquired by Gigginstown Stud and is trained by Gordon Elliott, which suggests he will be a nice horse as well.

He seems to handle soft ground, stays 3m relatively well and has already shown an aptitude for hurdles. He made all at Kelso, there is a strong chance that he won't get his own way in front today, but I can't see that being an issue. The Lucinda Russell yard is in great form at the moment, racking up 6 wins from 22 runners in the last fortnight (27% SR), so I'll happily take my chances against the field with this one.

Sizing Pottsie is the one they all have to beat based on the form over fences. He is rated 153 as a chaser and 143 over hurdles. He made a good stable debut when winning by 18L in what was probably an egg-and-spoon race, however, if he translates anywhere near the chase rating he should be tough to beat, but I don't think he will be as good over hurdles. But I can see why people will latch onto him.

Haydock 12:40

Around a month ago I tipped up NO CRUISE YET in a three-runner race at Carlisle. He jumped brilliantly throughout and cruised through the race like the winner up until the eventual winner Dee Star plugged on and battled hard to win. I was in disbelief at the time thinking how has No Cruise Yet no won that race, but it was probably due to needing the run whereas the winner had runs under his belt already. On the back of that, I said I would be following him where he next goes, and that comes today at Haydock in this tougher race.

Though this race is much tougher, I still think he is more than capable of winning it. He seemed like a chaser going the right way towards the back end of last season, so the little stumbling block at Carlisle is hardly a road stop, it was more of a bump along the way and with that run under his belt I think he could cause a small shock in this race.

Due to the race being harder and more competitive it has meant No Cruise Yet gets in at the bottom of the weights, running off 10st 2lbs. That kind of weight is ideal for today's conditions where stamina is going to be a big part of who will win, so carrying a smaller weight is a clear advantage. I still get the impression there's plenty of improvement to come out of this horse, and mark of 109 is hardly high, and if I was to have an estimate of what his ceiling might be, I'd probably say low to mid 120s, so if I think he could be as good as that in the near future then you're going to need a well-handicapped horse to beat him, which is possible in a race like this, but at the odds I think he rates as a great EW bet at the very minimum.

Haydock 1:15

Another tricky handicap which is always the case for Saturday racing, but that doesn't mean you can't find a betting angle.

Findthetime is a horse who is on the up and progressing through the handicap at a rate of knots until he was humbled at Wetherby when getting beat by a Dan Skelton horse. He has gone up a few lbs for that run, but that shouldn't halt his progress and he'll make a bold bid. However, I think the best handicapped horse in the race is BENSON.

There has always been a very good horse in Benson, it's whether he wants to show it. I get the impression he is a tricky customer and doesn't always do what is expected, having a mind of his own. He was good for Dr Richard Newland, shown when he probably would've won a Listed race at Sandown if he didn't jink and unseat his rider two from home. He was a good bumper horse too, recording one win and a good fourth in Listed company at Ascot, recording an RPR of 119 which is a fairly useful standard as bumper figures go. He eventually managed to get his head down and won three hurdle races on the bounce, including a Listed race at Sandown, but after that, he started to slowly decline.

He left Dr Richard's yard and is now part of the Sandy Thomson team and he made a good impression on his stable debut at Carlisle when finishing a close runner-up to a progressive horse, Well Educated. The fact he finished second was some effort as he was a good 8L or so behind the leader when jumping two from home and even when jumping the last he looked to have very little chance but he plugged on in eyecatching style and looked like a real stayer over 2m 1f on testing ground. I can see why connections have gone for this race as it's over 2m 3f and it will be on attritional ground. I think Haydock could suit due to the very long run in. We've seen on many occasions over the years where horses look home and hosed and then one comes from out of the clouds and nabs them in the final furlong, and I think Benson will enjoy that. Stamina has always looked a strong point over a trip like this, with Sandown often showing his best form on soft ground, which is a tough track and will test your stamina.

Bruce Lynn is an eye-catching jockey booking and with his claim, he will be running off a mark of 120, which is 17lb lower than his peak rating and means he runs off 10st 7lbs.

Ascot 3:50

Bumper races can often throw up some rogue winners at times, but generally, the market does tend to get it spot on. This race will more than likely be a strong piece of form to follow for the next few months as it often is a good standard of race to win. You have your usual big yards having runners in this including ones from the Henderson and Nicholls stables, but this race has gone the way of slightly smaller trainers in the past, including Jonjo O'Neill (wouldn't class him as a small trainer, but he doesn't have the level of horses the two before I mentioned). In the last 10 years, he has sent two runners into this race, one went off as 7/4F finishing out of the places and the other was Soaring Glory who produced the best RPR this race has seen in the last 10 years, of 130. He doesn't send many here unless they have a chance and he knows what kind of horse is required to win it, so I'll be having a small play on his runner BEACHCOMBER.

At the moment he is priced at around 12/1 and though we have nothing in terms of form, I'll be taking a chance that him turning up here suggests they rate him. That might sound daft, so if you don't fancy it then that's fair enough, but Jonjo knows what time of day it is when it comes to bumper races and he has already had some fairly useful bumper runners this season, so it's interesting they've opted for this lad to run here knowing it's normally a race which is strong. I could be barking up the wrong tree, but considering he's only ever had 5 runners in the bumpers at Ascot in the last five years suggests it's a rarity.

I'll be having an EW bet. Any money which arrives will be of major notice.

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