Racing tips: Aplomb should be tough to beat on soft ground at Windsor

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Rizzel landed a double in Ireland yesterday. Today, he has a mixture of flat and jumps racing to get stuck into:

Ffos Las 1:45

Apache Creek is the short priced favourite, but deserves to be that price based on his recent form, racking up three consecutive wins. However, I am going to try and get him beat with a slightly larger outsider in, ANIMAL. Though he's still a maiden over hurdles, his runs haven't been without promise. He's been behind a few nice looking horses in his novice races, including:

• Flash Collonges – rated 145
• Witness Protection – rated 132
• Malinello – rated 132
• Prince Escalus – rated 130
• Fantasikas – rated 128
• Only The Bold – rated 126

He was poor on his handicap debut, but the 2m 7f trip wouldn't be ideal at this point in his career, as he refuses to settle, so he'd always struggle to get that trip. The drop back to 2m 4f should be better for him, and hopefully a strong gallop will be set, so he has something to aim at. The soft ground will be better for him; he's already a winner on soft ground, when he won on bumper debut, in impressive style. Aidan Coleman rode him that day, and he gets back on him today, which is a good sign.

Advised: Each Way

Ffos Las 2:55

HARRY HAZE got his day in the sun last time at Warwick, and I think he's got a good chance of making it two wins in as many runs.

When horses finally get their head in front, after being long time maidens, it is often worth sticking with them as something has clicked. Whether they've changed something in his training, different race tactics, or ground/trip combination. Lto he won quite convincingly, with a good front running ride by Conor Ring. He takes on Shantou Sunset again, but this time is 4lb worse off at the weights, but I don't think that will be enough to reverse that form.

Ffos Las 4:40

Trainer Phillip Dando looks to have another good chance in the final race at Ffos Las, and potentially getting a ‘Haze Double', as BEAU HAZE has an obvious chance.

The 8yo was 2 lengths behind a progressive Oliver Sherwood runner, who looked better than his mark of 97. Beau Haze pulled 9 lengths clear of the third who in turn was 9 lengths ahead of the fourth, so that suggests to me that the front two have run nice races. He's arguably got the best form in the race, and a repeat of that run should see him go very close.

He races off 10st 8lbs, when you take the jockeys claim into consideration, which should help if the ground gets testing.

Carlisle 2:45

Mick Channon sends a runner to Carlisle from his base in Berkshire, which is his only runner on the card.

I think it's interesting that they've secured the ride of Joe Fanning for HUNDRED ISLES, who looks to be a progressive type, and a mark of 79 looks workable. He's won his last two, and the form seems to be working out quite well. Being by Fastnet Rock, he should handle the ground. The Jardine runner (now fav) is part of a gamble involving four of his horses, so take that how you will, I'm not sure if I believe it. We've seen many of these ‘gambles' fall at the first hurdle, it wouldn't surprise me if this is another one, although Mr Jardine is shrewd.

Advised: Each Way (can get 4 places, once again you decide if you want to play EW or on the nose)

Carlisle 5:00

Another race where the head of the market is a well gambled Jardine runner, but it doesn't put me off from backing SEVENTEEN O FOUR, who looks well-handicapped off a mark of 60, under a 5lb penalty.

Grant Tuer's charge hosed up by 7 lengths lto, where he seemed to love the soft ground. A repeat of that run should see him having a cracking chance. He'll have to improve as this is a step-up in grade, but based on what I saw last time, it's not out of the equation.

Windsor 7:20

APLOMB is shorter than ideal, but his chances are clear to see for everyone. His first run for Jane Chapple-Hyam was a cracker, after a 188 day break.

The rain has come at Windsor, and everyone knows that this horse wants soft ground. I think it will be hard to beat this lad in these conditions, if he can reproduce the level he ran at last time.

Ryan Moore takes the ride, and he's riding out of his skin currently, and rides this track extremely well. A short price, but perhaps one to put in your doubles/multiples.

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