Racing tips: Mint Condition will love the testing conditions in the Grand National Trial Handicap Chase

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A good day on the thread yesterday, with both selections winning. The NAP, Ain't No Sunshine had to battle all the way to the line, but he looks a good horse for the future, and the runner-up will be worth following. It's going to be a busy Saturday…IF meetings don't get abandoned due to the weather, so good luck if you're following and with all your bets for today.

Ascot 1:50

This is a hard race to weigh up, as there's no real stand out horse who you could say “he's the one to beat”, but a horse I am a fan of is CORACH RAMBLER. As some of you may have realised, this horse has been a tip on the thread two times in recent months, winning on the first occasion, before running a decent race in the Warwick Classic Chase off top weight to be placed. I am a bit surprised to see him turning up in the contest, as I though t connections would've wanted to go straight to the Cheltenham Festival, probably targeting the Ultima handicap, which I think he would've had a cracking chance in, but they've opted to come here.

I don't think this race is all that strong, and that's why it appears competitive on paper. Going through the opponents… I don't rate Does He Know. He is clearly a good horse, but I think he is flattered by his rating, and the form of his races aren't as strong as what it might appear. Annual Invictus is interesting as they've decided to go up in trip. Personally, I don't think it will suit, especially on testing ground, as his pedigree suggests it shouldn't suit. I think the bottom three in the market are the more interesting ones. J'Ai Froid was comfortably beaten by Corach Rambler, obviously he gets a swing in the weights, but it shouldn't be enough. Doyen Breed has the best form at the trip, finishing runner-up to Threeunderthrufive at Warwick, and is a thorough stayer at this trip. Fern Hill could get an easy leads of things, and if that is the case, he could be dangerous to underestimate.

I think a return to a stiffer track like Ascot, and on testing ground will suit. He can be a bit wayward at times, and he is quirky, so will be held up from off the pace. I think he is quicker than what a lot of punters think he is, as he seems to stay on strongly in his races. Whenever Lucinda sends one of her horses down south, they are always respected, as they don't like to waste their time.

Ascot 2:25

Another competitive race, this time a Class 1 Listed handicap with Fiddlerontheroof topping the weights. I am a big fan of Fiddler, but he would have to put in a pretty special performance to win this on testing ground off top weight. I thought he ran a monster race in the Ladbrokes Chase at Newbury, and he nearly landed the gamble. I am siding with LARRY in this contest, who is at the complete other side of the weights compared to Fiddlerontheroof, and I think that could be crucial.

On his day, this horse is more than capable of winning a race of this nature. That statement is backed up by the fact that he won a Grade 3 handicap chase at this track in October. That race is rather similar to today's race. It is over the same course and distance, the ground will be testing and Larry gets in at the bottom of the weights (10st 1lbs, as opposed to 10st on the day he won). All of which point to a big run, and when you consider he will be running off the same handicap mark, when you take Niall Houlihan's 3lb claim into consideration, his odds are simply far too big. You can make excuses for him the last two times. Both races were over trips too short or too far, with him seemingly looking like a three miler these days.

His jumping can be a bit hit or miss, so strap your seat-belt in as it could be a bumpy ride if you decide to follow Larry.

Ascot 3:38

Another horse which I have previously tipped up on the thread, who ran a monster race, but was beaten by a well handicapped horse is FANION D'ESTRUVAL. I am fully aware that this race is a big step-up for this horse, but the figures he put up at Ascot last time suggests he is a Grade 1 horse, and who'd put it past Charlie Deutsch and Venetia Williams in a big race on a Saturday meeting, after the run of form they are having.

Soft ground conditions seemed perfectly fine for this lad last time out, the only problem was the weight he had to give away to the eventual winner, which was 15lbs, which was simply too much. The winner was well-handicapped by a fair bit, and looks a nice horse for a future handicap down the line. Fanion D'Estruval jumped great for the most part that day, with his jumping becoming more accurate as the race went on, and the more he was pressured, which is a good sign, as he will need to be pinpoint accurate with his jumping in this race. His run last time out acheived an RPR of 169, which puts him at the best run achieved by any of these horses so far this season, even though it was in a handicap, that shows the level he is at. The winner of that handicap at Ascot in 2019 and 2021 won this race, so it goes to show that it's not a bad prep run.

He is still a 7yo, with plenty of potential and more to come. This race is tough like I mentioned, butyou know what you're getting with all of these horses, whereas the selection is still an unknown, and we don't quite know how good he is. He has a similar profile to Royal Pagaille and Funambule Sivola who have been quality for the Venetia Williams stable in the last year. At the prices I think he offers great EW value.

Ascot 4:10

Off a mark of 120, I think there could be a little bit of juice left in the mark of ART OF DIPLOMACY. This horse is simply a thorough stayer at 3m, and the last three runs suggest that. He was beaten the time before last, but he wasn't disgraced in defeat, as the horse who beat him looks decent, and the front two pulled well clear of the rest, which generally shows it is good form. He then went on to win in strong staying fashion at Catterick, winning by 7.5L, beating a previously well-regarded horse in Bill Baxter. As a result of that win, he has been put up 10lbs, but 5 of the 10 is negated by Cillin Leonard's claim. Cillin is a more than capable pilot and is well worth his 5lb.

Though soft ground is a bit of an uncertainty (has won on it on the flat, but has ran below par on it as well) I think he is worth a chance, as it will bring his stamina into play. Furthermore, I think the track will play to his strengths also, he might be off the bridle earlier than a few of these, but he will battle on all the to the line. Once again, he looks a decent EW bet for those who like to do so.

Haydock 2:40

I'm going to sound like a broken record now, but here we have yet another returning selection in MINT CONDITION. I think this lad is being massively overlooked. He looked like a horse who was a true stayer when he was tipped up at Haydock, when needing every yard of the 2m 6f trip on heavy ground, beating Ashtown Lad by 2.5L. He then went to Warwick, and ran no race whatsoever. Henry Brooke never looked happy on him at any stage of the race, an us backers that day knew our fate a long way from home. Jennie Candlish seems to think the quick turnaround was the reason for that poor performance, and I can believe that, as it was only 15 days from the Haydock slog. Personally, I don't think the track was in his favour either. Warwick is a sharp track, built for more ‘nippy' horses who have more speed about them, whereas this lad looks like a stayer, and that is why this trip and ground conditions looks right up his street.

We all know how bottomless Haydock is, but with the rain coming from the recent storms, this is going to be a proper stamina test, and it will separate the men from the boys. I don't know why, but I am quietly confident of a big run from this lad. I get the impression this is a race which will play into his hands, with him previously looking like a stamina horse, and the fact he gets on extremely well on bottomless ground, combined with the fact he is racing off 10st 4lbs, and gets the steering done by Brian Hughes. This track has been good to Mint Condition, yielding a win and a runner-up from 2 runs at the Merseyside track this season. The form of both races look decent, with the winner (Kiltealy Briggs) going on to win again, and in the race with Mint Condition won, the runner-up has ran well behind Ahoy Senor, who is a top novice for this season. Once again I think this lad is a good EW bet.

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