Racing tips: McFabulous can topple the short-priced favourite Thyme Hill

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Datsalrightgino didn't jump with fluency like he did last time around, and that probably came as a result of him not being able to lead. Gavin Sheehan didn't settle for a prominent position, instead holding him up. His jumping gave him no chance but he stayed on strongly and looks like a horse who needs further and one to keep an eye on.

As for Beakstown, no words really. He's probably put in one of the worst rounds of jumping from an experienced horse I've seen this season. A horrible effort from the Skelton horse, I'd be wary to back him again on the back of that. Apologies.

Newbury 12:45

Though this is a four-runner race it is still a fascinating contest with three horses who will be aiming for some big races throughout the season, so to get them racing against each other is nice to see. I say three, as the outside of the bunch is surely outclassed in this (Mortlach), and it would be a big shock if the Fergal O'Brien runner made an impression in this.

Thyme Hill is the short-priced favourite, which you can understand based on hurdles form, being a Grade 1 winner and the highest rated amongst the runners, but I'm not totally sold on him. It might sound daft but he reminds me of a horse from a couple of years ago, Lil Rockerfeller, who was best known when trained by Neil King. By that comparison, I mean that he was a good hurdles horse and was kept to hurdles for a long time but they eventually tried fences, where he won a couple of races, but as he contested tougher races his jumping fell apart and it proved that he wasn't made for fences and was best kept to hurdles. Thyme Hill is a better horse than Lil Rockerfeller, but based on his chase debut run at Exeter I wasn't impressed and he didn't look a natural over fences.

Harry Cobden has opted to ride Gelino Bello out of the Nicholls pair, but I'll be on another, MCFABULOUS. This horse has always had a good reputation, he's gone off as a favourite for a Grade 1 hurdle race a couple of seasons ago, which was won by Thyme Hill, and it's always seemed like a horse who hasn't reached his potential, but that be over hurdles and chasing could be his game. I was impressed with his jumping at Exeter last time out, he jumped very well for the most part, apart from the last fence but overall it was a good run. He beat a good horse into second from the Skelton yard, but I'm not too fussed about the form as he looked natural over his fences and got into a nice rhythm in front, which is what I'm hoping for today.

Gelino Bello nearly got beat on chase debut at Wetherby, which was a match race. He jumped nicely and was more of a public schooling so we didn't learn too much from that run, but what I did notice is that he does tend to jump out to the right slightly at his fences. That might not be a concern to some, but at a high level, it's not what you want to see, especially on a left-handed track. He was a good novice hurdler last year, winning a Grade 1 at Aintree at the back of the season, but I don't think that form is particularly strong. It's of major interest that Harry has decided to ride him over McFabulous, but he's got it wrong in the past and will get it wrong many times in the future and I believe he has today, but we'll have to see.

Newbury 1:20

CAP DU NORD has been a tip on this thread a couple of times and he's making another appearance today.

I felt like he ran a very good race to finish third at Wincanton three weeks ago when finishing behind Frodon. Cap Du Nord was hampered by a faller that day and that didn't help him, and without that, I think he could've made a good chance of winning the race or finishing second at the very least. The handicapper has kindly dropped him 2lbs for that race, which is a tad unusual but it's a plus for us.

This horse managed to win this race back in 2020 off a handicap mark of 123, which was effectively 120 as Jack Tudor took off 3lbs that day. Today, Ellis Collier takes off a very handy 7lbs and that means he will be running off 123. Considering he won quite cosily back in 2020 by 4.25L off a similar mark, surely that makes him a major player today at a track that he clearly enjoys and on ground that he handles, with a decent 7lb claimer on board, meaning he runs off bottom weight of 10st 7lbs.

I'm not stupid and I know this race is competitive, as the odds throughout the field would suggest, but I get the impression this lad is creeping back into form and with each run under his belt he will be getting fitter and fitter. With this being his 3rd run of the season, he should be at peak fitness and it seems he is taking a similar route through this year's season as he has done over the last couple, with the Kempton race on the day after Boxing Day probably being the next target. He is a super horse who normally goes close or lands a decent pot, and I imagine he'll go close today.

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