Racing tips: Mister Fogpatches offers good EW value in the Irish Grand National

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Auriferous ran a belter of a race at Newbury, but wasn't good enough to stop the Nicky Henderson hotpot. Hopefully his handicap mark won't be altered, as I think he is a winning in waiting. I'll be backing him again when he runs in the future, as he looks like a nice horse on a workable mark.

Fairyhouse 5:00

With 30 runners in the field, you're going to need a lot of luck in running, but I think that MISTER FOGPATCHES has what it needs to win the Irish Grand National. This horse has ran in many similar races like this, and has ran with credit in a lot of them. He stays this trip, and further, so stamina isn't a concern for us backers, and his jumping is normally on point, which is always a positive in a race of this nature.

Danny Mullins take the ride, which is a good as Danny gets on well with this horse, and he is a very talented rider who has only really been getting the credit he deserves. The drying ground should be in his favour, and his form reads well, especially the run at Gowran Park behind Longhouse Poet. The winner went on to run a big race in the Aintree Grand National. That was over 3m 1f, and Master Fogpatches was staying on strongly, over a trip which is seemingly too short for him these days. I thought he ran below par at Cheltenham, but his chances weren't helped by the fact he was hampered early on, and seemed to upset his rhythm. He's been off the track for a month, which is a positive when you consider a fair few of these have raced in the Grand National a couple of weeks ago, so he should be 100% fit for this, when others will surely be feeling the effects.

7 places on offer and odds of around 14/1 make him a good EW bet in this in my opinion. 8 of the last 10 winners of this race have carried 10st 8lbs or less, Mister Fogpatches carries 10st 6lbs, which is a stat in his favour.

Kempton 3:30

John Butler has started his flat season off very well, especially on the AW, so it's no surprise to see that his runner FARHAN is well found in the market. Running fresh and not having a run this season is always a concern, but the fact that his 3 runs (including his debut) when fresh have resulted in 3x 2nd's, losing by a short head, nose and neck means that he handles his time away from the track very well, and it shouldn't be an issue, especially with the yard being in form.

The jockey booking of William Buick says what chances he has in my opinion. William is the best flat jockey in the country, and arguably the world at the minute. There isn't a jockey who is in better form currently. John doesn't use William all that often, with him winning twice for John and being placed a further six times from 12 runs. This horse has some very smart form, including a big run at Newmarket where he finished 2nd to the talented Godolphin horse, Siskany. That horse was rated 103 when they met, but produced an RPR of 121 to win the race, which is quite remarkable. He has since ran some okay races, including a win at Meydan in a Listed race, and is now rated 111. After that run at Newmarket, Farhan won at Doncaster, landing a 36k prize. He beat a Royal Ascot 2nd and Glorious Goodwood winner in Calling The Wind, with other promising horses in behind. The form hasn't fully been tested, but the horses who have ran since have franked it quite well, with Global Storm winning a handicap at Meydan (back in 18th) and East Asia (11th) finishing runner-up to Manobo in a Group 3 in Meydan. Skycutter who was back in fourth has become a smart hurdler over the winter, winning twice, and made a winning return to the flat when landing a Class 3 at Ayr winning by 2.25L, so the form looks rock solid.

The only concern about this horse is the track and surface. He hasn't raced on Polytrack before, so it's an unknown, but John knows what he's doing and I can trust his decision to run him here.

Kempton 4:05

The two ahead of ROMAN MIST in the market are more than likely going be better horses than her, but they are making their seasonal returns in this race, whereas Roman Mist has already had a run at this track and ran to a very good level to finish runner-up in a Class 2, so I think she is worth siding with against the two market fancies.

I was very happy to see Roman Mist not win last time out, as I was close to tipping her up, and it would've been a disaster to see her win at 14/1. She was very weak in the market last time out, which suggests connections were using it as a prep run, so to her he lose by a head is some effort. The horse who beat her was a Class 1 performer in Italy. Italian racing isn't a great read into it, but he proved that he is a good horse as he won off top weight and produced an RPR of 109 to beat Roman Mist, so is clearly a very good horse. Roman Mist has been tried at this level twice before, once on soft going in France, where she finished 4th and ran with credit, and the other at Lingfield where she finished 2nd to Maamora. I think both of those were not ideal, as she stays on well over a mile, so Lingfield wasn't going to suit as it suits fast nippy types, and I think she is better on a sounder going so the soft ground wasn't ideal in France. As we've seen already on many occasions this flat season (even though we're a few weeks into it) that fitness is a massive advantage, and she has that edge over her rivals, so she shouldn't be underestimated.

My Astra is going to be well fancied due to the combination of Jockey/Trainer/Owner, but she is very lightly raced and her form doesn't look out of the ordinary. She's won a couple of Maiden/Novice races in good fashion, but that hasn't produced a good level of form and then she finished 2nd in a Listed race in France, which hasn't produced anything either, so the fact she is a short price I think she has to be taken on. This could be a stepping stone for other races in the future, and 6/5 doesn't appeal to me at all. As for Potapova, she has some good form, but the form of Sir Michael Stoute's yard stinks. He is 0/8 so far this season and his horses don't seem to be running to form, so the time away from the track is a negative for me, especially how she bombed out last time at Doncaster at the back end of last year.

Kempton 4:40

Due to the fact I think Roman Mist can win in the race prior to this, I think the form is strong with PENSIERO D'AMORE, who is the Italian horse who beat her last time out. This horse is around 9/1 in the market, and I can't seem to understand why, other than the horses who are stronger in the market come from bigger yards and have that sexy appeal. This horse could've won by a fair bit more last time out, he travelled smoothly in behind horses, and only got a gap quite late on, where he took advantage of that and won by a head. I do rate that form, and I think this horse could improve again and be a horse who takes a liking to the artificial surfaces and win some nice races throughout the season. He has gone up 3lbs for that win, and races against some decent and unexposed types, none other than Raajil who will receive 17lbs from my selection, but at the prices he is a EW bet at the very least.

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