Racing tips: Mark Winn’s 7lb claim puts Morty on an attractive mark back on the AW

This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.

Catterick was abandoned yesterday after a couple of races due to horses slipping on the bends. As a result, only one selection ran and that resulted in a poor performance. Liosa was still quite keen but didn't improve from his debut run. I was expecting him to go extremely close today, so to see him finish in the middle of the pack was very disappointing. The other selection which didn't run took a drift from 11/2 to around 14/1, so it might've been a blessing that he didn't run.

Chelmsford 4:25

I've been stung with backing horses who aren't in form, and I do think it is a better tactic to go with horses who are in form. The problem with that is when a horse has been in relatively bad form, their handicap marks drop down and they look extremely appealing. The same has happened for MORTY in this final race of the day at Chelmsford.

Though his recent runs haven't been great and offered much encouragement, I think you can forgive him for a lot of them. He raced on soft ground last time around, and based on his best form figures, he prefers a quicker surface when racing on turf. The three runs before that he was running over 6f, and though he has won over 6f before, I think his best distance is over 5f, also I believe he is a better horse on the AW compared to the turf. His record of 2 wins from 9 attempts on the AW suggests he is more comfortable on this surface, compared the 2 from 21 on the grass.

You can probably say he was in the grips of the handicapper during his recent runs, but he has now dropped back to a good handicap mark of 55, which is below his last winning mark of 59. He ran over 5f at Lingfield in June in a race which was seemed good for the grade. He travelled strongly through that race before weakening in the final furlong due to taking a keen pull in the early stages. He looked like a major player when turning for home but his efforts petered out. That was off a mark of 64, which is 9lbs heavier than today, which is in fact 16lbs heavier than today as Mark Winn takes off an extremely handy 7lbs, meaning he is effectively running off a mark of 48! You're always taking a risk when backing an apprentice who has not much experience, but from what I've seen so far from Mark he seems a capable rider and has a 14% SR from 86 rides.

He's won at Lingfield before, so seems to handle Polytrack nice enough, and has run well at this course before, so from stall 1 I think he is a decent EW bet with four places on offer and odds of around 5/1.

Horse Racing Tips

🔗 Share Your Horse Racing Tips on Social Media