Racing tips: Luca Morgan could land a chase double at Warwick without touching a Twig

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Cash Again didn't quite do what I was hoping, and put cash in my back pocket as well as those who followed, but he did run better than his run at Hexham and did effectively give us a small amount of profit with him placing.

I think his run was actually a good effort and the horses ahead of him were just well-handicapped. The winner came over from Ireland with a 7lb claimer onboard and did what Irish horses do when they come over, look better than their handicap mark. The runner-up always had that chance of being ahead of the handicapper but had to prove his fitness after time off the track, so overall, I'd be happy to back Cash Again, again.

Warwick 1:40

NORTHERN BOUND is probably a bit too short but considering he made light work of the field last time where he beat Fat Sam, I can see him winning again off a 7lb higher mark as he competes against horses who are more exposed and vulnerable to an improver.

He is a horse who has relished the switch to fences, which is evident when you see his record of 6/11 over fences compared to 2/13 over hurdles. He won easily at Bangor beating Fat Sam into second place by 9L without really asking for maximum effort. There is a 9lb swing in the weights today between those two but I can't see a different outcome even though Fat Sam gets the weight swing as he was convincingly beaten.

Ben Pauling has started the jumps season on a really good note, currently showing a 29% SR from 96 runners which is an impressive rate for a yard that has been relatively quiet over the last couple of years.

Marracudja would be of interest but he is 11 years of age now and might want the ground to be a little more testing than the good ground we get today. However, he is clearly well-handicapped on old pieces of form and I rate him as the one I worry about the most due to running off a low handicap mark compared to his old ratings.

Warwick 2:50

I'm going ahead and backing another Ben Pauling horse with Luca Morgan doing the steering again in this three-runner race as I think TWIG will be very difficult to beat.

In a race of this nature where there are little amount of runners, it can often be tactical but I don't see how that will go against Twig as I think he is the best horse in the race and the horse who is capable of going on to win more and better races in the future. I think connections would've been mixed with his run last time out at Worcester as he arrived at Ben's yard with a string of 1s next to his form so must've been expecting a big run, but to not win would've been annoying. I got the impression Luca Morgan thought he had a lot more horse underneath him when tracking the eventual winner. The winner was off the bridle before Twig and Luca didn't seem distressed when he had to find 3-5 lengths, but when he asked him to pick up it wasn't instant and I think that was due to a lack of match fitness so in my opinion, he will have stripped fitter for that run and due to that he should be very tough to beat if jumping a good round.

He is a short price, but anything over EVS is value in my opinion and worth taking whether it's a horse for an accumulator or a single.

Worcester 2:41

I get the feeling backing TOM O'ROUGHLEY seems a bit too obvious, by that I mean it just seems too good to be true for him to be at odds of around 5/2 as surely he should be the one they all have to beat.

He won last time out in fairly comfortable fashion and effectively runs off the same handicap mark today as his 5lb rise in the weights is negated by Harry Kimber's 5lb claim. Harry rode him last time out but wasn't able to use his claim, so based on that he runs off the same handicap mark as last time, so a repeat performance will more than likely be enough to register back-to-back wins.

His win last time out was his first win since winning over PTPs in 2019, winning at the 17th time of asking so he doesn't seem the most reliable horse, but things seemed to click last time around and for that reason, I think you have to stick with him as something clearly worked. I'm glad Harry has kept the ride as he clearly got on well with him over today's course and distance.

Running off bottom weight of 9st 12lbs makes him of real interest and if he jumps well he should be tough to beat.

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