Racing tips: Lavelle eyes up Sussex National success with Pemberley

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Yesterday wasn't the way I wanted to start off the new year, with just one winner in the shape of Weveallbeencaught. I was impressed with his performance at Cheltenham and looks like a lovely staying chaser in a year or two.

Many selections ran below what was expected. Coconut Splash being the main one, he was well-supported AGAIN and he jumped terribly. I won't be putting him up again, he's a frustrating horse.

Plumpton 1:00

On paper, this race should be between Hansard and MASTER CHEWY. For me, I think the latter has the better form and might appreciate the slower ground better than his main rival.

Master Chewy has made an encouraging start to his novice hurdling career with two placed efforts from his first three runs, which would've included a nice success at Ascot if he didn't fall on landing at the final hurdle. He jumped the last beautifully but overstretched and fell, the race was his and it was a shame, but he is a nice horse who will definitely win races in time, hopefully, this being the first of many.

I thought his recent run at Cheltenham was a nice run, he travelled strongly throughout but didn't quite see the race out as well as the Nicky Henderson horse who looks like a really nice type for the future. If you compare the level in form to his main opposition in this, surely he has the stronger form and based on that I think he will be too much for him.

He seemed to handle the soft ground in his bumper runs and he arrives to this without carrying a penalty, unlike Hansard. I do think Hansard is a nice horse, but he will have to be fairly smart to win this when carrying a penalty. I feel like his win lto came as a bit of a shock as Gary Moore knows what time of day it is and loves a bit of a gamble so to see him win at 10/1 on stable debut seems like they weren't expecting it. He won nicely that day, but today's softer conditions ask different questions, especially when he has been kept to better ground.

Plumpton 2:00

For this type of race, I think it best to go for the unexposed type who could surpass their current rating, rather than going for the exposed horse who is out of form and is relying on coming back into form.

DOIREANN is my idea of the likeliest winner of this contest, she made an encouraging return to the track in November at Fakenham when finishing 2nd off the back of a 244-day break. The front two that day pulled well clear of the rest, and that's normally a good indicator that they are ahead of the handicapper. The form took a bit of a boost when the winner went on to finish 3rd in her next race. Finishing third might not sound impressive, but when you consider the front three pulled 25L clear of the fourth horse and the front three were repeated by 0.75L, I think that can be classed as a good boost.

She was entitled to have needed that run at Fakenham and that was her first start since having a wind-op, so she would've still been getting used to her new wind, and with that experience under her belt she could have plenty more to come. The drop back in trip isn't as much of a concern as it might look as it will be testing conditions out there and knowing this mare stays further than today's trip is surely a positive to take coming into this.

Plumpton 3:00 (Each Way 4 places)

Those that have been tuning into the thread of a daily basis will know I love my staying chase races, especially the National races. Obviously, there's not a betting angle in every one, but when I feel like I have found a betting angle I will be sharing my thoughts.

Even though there are 11 runners in this Sussex National, I don't think it's that competitive. I really do like the chances of PEMBERLEY in this. He finished 2nd in this race last year off a 1lb higher mark, so clearly stays the trip and enjoys the track, and I was happy with his recent run at Lingfield. I thought he was very unlucky not to go closer at Lingfield in November as he hit the front and was then taken extremely wide just before jumping the fence by two loose horses. He lost a lot of ground and plenty of momentum and that virtually gave him no chance of winning. Though that happened he still managed to get back level with the winner, but it became too tough and when his chance was done Tom Bellamy looked after him and didn't go crazy, as he had to settle for a 7L defeat into second place.

With that recent run under his belt, I think he arrives at this race in very good form and I think the form of that race is decent. Tallow For Coal didn't run his race at Newbury the other day, he was off the bridle within the first furlong, then managed to latch onto the pack again but weakened. His jumping was terrible that day and nothing went right for him, but I believe he is still a capable horse on his day over staying trips.

Overall, I think over this trip on this type of ground I think he is the best option in the race. He's clearly on a capable handicap mark and at the odds with the extra place on offer, he is definitely a strong EW player in this.

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