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BEEN a busy last few days and all set to continue Christmas Day. Some people take my breath away with their courage, determination and ability to smile when quite simply they don’t have much to smile about.
To everyone on here and those sleeping rough, Merry Christmas to you all.
On Boxing Day last year something happened some people will never forget. My main selections lost but from seven shortlisted horses six won.
I know a few people backed them and I know at least four people on this site backed them in multiples, one person in particular won more than £60,000.
The sixfold that day paid more than 400,000-1. I didn’t back it but as I said some did. It’s unlikely lightning can strike twice especially with my lack of luck just now but you never know.
December is 77.39pts down and I'm looking for a strong finish to the year.
Johnb’s Big Race Preview
The King George VI Chase is a Grade 1 National Hunt Chase. It is run at Kempton over a distance of about 3 miles with 19 fences to be jumped and has a long list of top-class chasers who have won the race.
BRISTOL DE MAI
This was one of my selections in last season's Cheltenham Gold Cup even though I said he was a horse for the future that would be top class people were quick to dismiss him. What people need to realise is when I tip my antepost selections I am tipping value and potential, the potential part may come later – as I say a horse for the future.
But if the value is good enough I will back a horse now. Bristol De Mai is a classic example of that, backing a horse probably a year too early because the value is worth the risk.
Bristol De Mai when beating Blacklion looked the real deal and confirming to myself I was in fact correct about his chances. In the Betfair Chase at Haydock he absolutely demolished his rivals, Cue Card was beaten into second by 57 lengths and Outlander 66 lengths.
Bristol De Mai was rated 160, Cue Card 168 and Outlander 166 but off level weights they were no match. It was even said to me Bristol De Mai wouldn’t win above three miles but that last run was over a distance of 3m 1f 125 yards on heavy ground. This is a different test but he comes here in the form of his life with two wins from two runs this season and any rain is a positive. He may not get the race run to suit but he has a big chance.
MIGHT BITE
This is a horse that has done very little wrong except when idling in front in the RSA Novices Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last season and was nearly caught by Whisper. He made an impressive seasonal reappearance at Sandown last time, the distance and course here looks ideal for him and this will have been the target for the Nicky Henderson-trained horse. Has a favourite's chance but the odds put me off as there is no value whatsoever.
THISTLECRACK
This was my horse for the last couple of years. He won the World Hurdle for us two seasons ago at advised odds of 20-1 and followed up for us in this race last season when again winning at advised odds of 20-1. We were going for a hat-trick of 20-1 wins in the Cheltenham Gold Cup but injury put paid to that.
He was a disappointing fifth in his comeback race over hurdles but there was a lot to like about him. He travelled and jumped well but looking at the finish it was just a lack of race fitness that did him. There is no other horse in training that can jump like him, the way he stands off some of his fences is simply jaw dropping, he has no fear as he knows he can clear them and travels so strongly and with pace.
His rivals in this race couldn’t keep up the relentless gallop with him. I suppose there is a doubt about how much the race against Many Clouds affected him, that was his last run over fences and it was an almighty battle that cost Many Clouds his life. I feel Thistlecrack is still as good but there are doubts.
FOX NORTON
This horse steps up to three miles for the first time. He ran over two miles last time in the Tingle Creek when second to Politologue, last season though when he was stepped up to two and a half miles in the Melling Chase at Aintree he ran a cracker and probably his best race. He began last year winning a handicap at Cheltenham from a mark of 146 and is now rated 168 so it shows just how much this horse has improved and especially when you see he was only beaten a head in last seasons Queen Mother Champion Chase.
“I think he’ll make up into a King George horse,” were the words from Colin Tizzard after his win in the Melling Chase. The ground conditions, however, could be going against him.
WHISPER
He has had a couple of close runs against Might Bite in recent times, the Grade 1 Mildmay saw two lengths between them on good ground and at Cheltenham there was just a nose between them when Might Bite veered right on the run in. Was second last time out in the Ladbrokes which was pretty decent giving weight to all bar Coneygree. The ground here could suit Whisper more than Might Bite which again makes the short price on Might Bite look no value.
Verdict
As I have said there is absolutely no value in Might Bite. Punters have completely the wrong mindset when they say a 5-4 winner is better than a 5-1 loser. If you continue to back with no value you will lose long term.
In my opinion the race is between two horses I have talked up for a long time. Thistlecrack is an impressive horse and is great each way value and Bristol De Mai is better value than Might Bite and has better form, For me it’s got to be BRISTOL DE MAI to win with Thistlecrack to chase him home in second.
If the predicted rain isn’t forthcoming Bristol De Mai’s chances will be severely dented but he is still the way to go in my opinion but I wouldn’t be upset if Thistlecrack won. I am also backing the reverse forecast.
- 1st – Bristol De Mai
- 2nd – Thistlecrack
- 3rd – Whisper
Johnb’s Boxing Day Tips
- 1.20 Kempton
- Reigning Supreme 5-1 Ladbrokes NAP
- 1.30 Wincanton
- Persian Delight 13-2 bet365
- 1.45 Down Royal
- Minellafordollars 2-1 Skybet
- 2.10 Wetherby
- Wakanda 5-1 Ladbrokes
- 3.05 Kempton
- Bristol De Mai 4-1 boylesports NB
Also 0.1pt Super Yankee 9-2, 13-2, 2-1, 4-1 & 7-2
Boxing Day Shortlisted Horses
Leopardstown
12.15 – Manamite 6-1
2.20 – Death Duty 7-4
Wincanton
3.15 – Theatre Territory 7-4
Market Rasen
1.10 – Argentix 6-1
3.25 – Soiesauvage 18-1
Kempton
3.40 – Doesyourdogbite 16-1
Wolverhampton
4.0 – Rock Warbler 13-2
Johnb’s Antepost Tips Update
- 1000 Guineas
- CLEMMIE advised at 25-1
- Now 3-1 best price and as low as 5-2 betway
- The Oaks
- MAGICAL advised at 33-1
- Now 14-1 best price and as low as 8-1 boylesports
Related Topic:
Cheltenham
The way thistlecrack jumps takes a lot out of him.
Wastes too much energy with prodigious jumping.
Many clouds, god rest his soul, may have broken thistlecrack that fateful day and his seasonal debut suggested that by downing tools half a mile out in a hurdle race.
Also he is no youngster and maybe we have seen the best of him like uknowwhatimeanharry who also seems shot at top level.
To be honest it looks a most unexciting king George compared to past races.
Even without a monsoon I see Bristol de mai galloping them into submission with might bite if he doesn’t go wandering again 2nd and whisper 3rd.
I’ve always liked tea for two but may be outclassed, but has won 3 from 4 here I think so nay place at fancy odds.
Anyway merry Xmas racing people and may the festive season bring you and your loved ones much joy and happiness.
Yes John B – I remember Boxing Day last year! I did not win £60k but it was profitable.
My heart tells me to back Thistlecrack each way but such a poor run last time. We know he loves it round Kempton though.
Merry Christmas to All ,and for those about to over indulge ,enjoy.?
Let’s hope we see a horse in the King George that can give Sizing John a run for his money in March GL.
Merry Christmas to use all,have a great day! ??
Ill look forward to a good days racing and football tomorrow with a few beers in front of the TV,hopefully a few winners too!
My heart says Thistlecrack Ew but head says BDM or Might Bite… just because theres no value you think in Might Bite can you really see it not in the first 3 John?
GL to one and all tomorrow
Read Alan’s review for a completely different take on the race.
Merry Christmas lads and lasses . Going to Market Rasen Boxing Day , any tips ??
Running wolf in 1-45 got real good form from last race, priced around 11-2
Thank you Philip66
A very Merry Xmas to all and bol for tomorrow
I have Whisper for third and the only reason is because Bristol De Mai and Thistlecrack are in the race, if it was a case of Might Bite against Whisper then Might Bite wins
I struggle to see why Might Bite is so short
Can anyone tell me what this horse has done?, who has he beat to warrant being so short?
Might Bite beats good horses but those are good horses that we know aren’t as good as Might Bite, his rating of 162 is about right and so are the ratings for Thistlecrack 170 and Bristol De Mai 173
If I try and explain what I see when I spot a future good horse it’s hard, I see movement that is effortless, I see the body language of a horse that tells me how confident they are, the racing greats have one thing in common, they know exactly how good they are, they strut about like they own the place, they let other horses know that they are the boss, the most famous one was Secretariat but Camelot was just as confident and liked to let the other horses know he was,
When Might Bite runs he doesn’t do anything for me, his races look satisfactory but nothing special but Bristol De Mai and Thistlecrack make me move closer, the hair stands up on the back of my neck, my heartbeat rises, when that happens I enjoy watching the rest of their career to see if I was right, again Might Bite just doesn’t do that for me
Thistlecrack is a horse that you could just sit on and let him jump his fences how he likes, when the jockey decides for him when to jump you can see he doesn’t like it, you can see the horse looking at the fence and his body language saying “come on let me jump it”, when you see Thistlecrack getting in close to a fence, that is because the jockey is trying to tell him when to jump, when you watch Thistlecrack jump you see just how intelligent he is, he corrects himself so well when in too close and doesn’t lose momentum, he loves to test himself by taking off way before the fence but he knows he can clear it, when you let the horse jump when he wants to, he takes lengths out of his rivals, it’s heart in mouth when he jumps but it’s a joy to watch, with some of his jumps he stands off so far back that other horses wouldn’t even make it to the fence but clears it with ease, I think he will go very close tomorrow, he could even win with ease
Some say Many Clouds may have broken Thistlecrack but my view is he didn’t, the conditions and the way the race was run favoured Many Clouds, sadly that win cost Many Clouds his life
but did Thistlecrack even in defeat break Many Clouds?
There is a worry about the rain not coming but Bristol De Mai still has good form on good ground
Bristol De Mai , Land of Hope and Glory and Get on your Yager . 100/1 Treble
Wow that’s 2 mins of my life I willna ever get back reading that.
Might bite would have destroyed the RSA field if it hadn’t ideled after the last some great novices well beat behind it should also be 6 out of 6 from it’s last runs and is as exciting jumper as youl see but that doesn’t excite you ???
Your just going against the obvious to try and make a point about 2 horses youv banged on about and it will come back to bite you again like the rest of the year.
These are some of the horses Bristol De Mai has beaten in his last two runs and their ratings are next to the name
Cue Card 168 twice
Outlander 166
Coneygree 164
Tea For Two 164
Definitely Red 159
Village Vic 158
Shantou Flyer 156
Blacklion 155 (Grand National 4th)
The highest rated horse Might Bite has beaten is Whisper at 155 but just mentioning Whisper says it all
You say he was going to win easy in the RSA until idling, that finish was anything but idling, some may say he hung right but even that is putting it mildly,
He infact veered severely right which is a major problem that is hard to correct for future races and in his last run his finish wasn’t that strong, the jockey Nico had some very worrying looks behind as he was desperate not to have to ask the horse too much
You seem to have changed your opinion on shortpriced horses, Might Bite may indeed win and if he does then well done to everyone who backs him but he is far from value with all the question marks hanging over him and no he hasn’t impressed me and I think I have a very impressive record for finding future stars, if I do say so myself
Get in JohnB, personally I’m sick of reading Billy Boys back biting and critiscm. Give it him back and shut him up for good with 5 winners tomorrow
Merry Christmas to all who positively contribute to all the threads, racing,football and sports!!
Spot on. He’s a right Scrooge. Thing is it’s healthy to have different opinions about the race and I see Garry Owen is also on Bristol De Mai.
I am also in the BDM camp and was going to give my view on the race but johnb’s last comment has more or less summed it up.
Have you had a look at Irish Racing at all today DC?
merry crimbo everyone hope your all having a good one
k
As I said before stick to Alan’s thread. Your comments aren’t welcome on Johnb’s.
You will all be scoffing when fox Norton jumps the last with a 5 lengths lead and wins going away. (Personal reasons for fox to win )
Fox Norton was one I gave a write up for and a pretty positive write up, he isn’t without chance and the ground conditions are going in his favour now, the three miles is an unknown
If he stays Fox has a chance. Until he proves he stays he will stay in the pending folder.
This time last year we would have scoffed at Fox, might bite, Bristol, whisper being talked of as king George winners.
Either they have improved a lot or its a poorish king George.
The 1st 2 in the betting for the Irish equivalent sizing John and yorkhill look better than this field , I guess we won’t know until cheltenham in March, unless there is a Norton’s coin lurking, for those who remember sirrell Griffiths 100-1 shot who beat odds on dessie into 3rd in 1990
Nap Holy One 3/1 3.30 Leopardstown 3pts
Nb Bluegrass Princess 6/1 2.45 Limerick 1pt
Double 1pt
Whisper is the pick in the big one 6/1
ingleby angel 1.10 battle of marathon 1.45 intsaab 2.50 outer space 4.00 l15 singles
The prices for the big un are about right . Thistlecrack can’t jump all of em outside the wings, its surely over stretching at times. Bristol is a true soft ground horse… Fact. It basically hasn’t done anything with ground with any good in it. Might bite lf standing up last yr would have been odds on. I prefer to watch races like this and not bet. One bet I will be having is Mount Tahan 1-45 wolves 3-1. Real good run after a horrific start last time, the form from that race has a real solid look to it too. Whatever happens tomorrow hopefully all the horses come back safe and the punters stuff the horrible bookie chappies!
Limerick
3.55- Cornakill Rose -5/1 (NAP)- 2 points
Market Rasen
1.10- Boagrius – 9/2 (NB)- 1 point
kempton
1.55- Ballytopic- 4/1- 1 point
0.25 point trixie
Good luck all
Boxing day?greetings to all on thread?, doing johnb’s in a yankee, also like tipsultan’s?, whatever happens in the king george its gonna be a fascinating watch. Enjoy the racing. GL??
Morning all
Hope everyone had a great day yesterday.
Lots of racing today but have stuck to Kempton and the Irish meetings for my selections
Kempton
12.45 SIMPLY THE BETTS 5/1 ew
1.20 PRIVATE MALONE 7/1 ew
3.05 DBM 4/1
Leopardstown
12.45 QUICK GRABIM 11/8 NB
1.50 GOLDEN JEWEL 5/1 NAP
2.55 L.O.H.A.G. 4/1
Limerick
12.35 STAR MAKER evs
1.05 SANDSEND 10/11
(Double)
BOL
Morning all . Hope everyone had a great Christmas.
HUNTINGDON
15.00. .BASHFORD BEN. . 15/2
KEMPTON
13.55. . . MIAS STORM. . 3/1
FONTWELL
15.45. . MOLLY CAREW. .3/1
WETHERBY
13.40. . GREY GOLD. . 7/2
WINCANTON
13.30. . BASTIEN. .6/1 E/W
14.05. . KRACKATOA KING. . 4/1
gl all
Main tips:
NAP – 3:20 Wetherby – Bahrikate (Each Way) 7/1 2pt
NB – 3:05 Kempton – Might Bite 11/8 1pt
Bank (NAP/NB): + 59.8 pt
Too much busy so no time to post Overall tips and trixie. Only main today and will post for tomorrow other bank and tips. Only hope that ratting not generated some crazy profit today and we miss it all. Good luck.
A day of drinking and watching sport for me. Gonna focus on the itv races only.
1.20 Kempton – Private Malone 15/2
1.55 Kempton – Mias Storm 3/1
2.10 Wetherby – Wakanda 9/2
2.30 Kempton – No bet
3.05 Kempton – Mite Bite 6/4 & Whisper ew 15/2
Good Luck everyone
Testing
Johnb’s Wednesday Tips
3:05 Kempton
Brandon Hill 10/3 NAP William Hill
3:40 Kempton
Chatez 7/2 NB Skybet
Double 17.75/1 William Hill
Were is todays thread