Racing tips: Itchy Feet gets his chance to shine over a new trip

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It was nice to land a 16/1 winner yesterday, under a positive ride which I was hoping for from Jamie Moore. Hopefully some of you backed Vive Le Roi and pocketed some nice pieces of profit.

Newbury 1:15

Not my strongest selection I've ever done, but I think there is value in the price of PRIME VENTURE. I think you're able to get a decent price on this horse as his run over hurdles wasn't the most inspiring at Chepstow last weekend, but there's reasons to believe to ignore that run.

In a race of this nature, you always want to be positive that your selection is going to stay the distance. I have no doubts in my mind that he stays 3m 2f, as he has been running in staying contests for the most of his career, and has put up some good efforts in similar races. He won the big Veteran's chase at Sandown the time before last, where his stamina came to the forefront as he powered up the Sandown hill, and pulled clear of the rest of the field. Though conditions won't be extremely soft (I don't think), as there's no further forecast rain, the ground should remain testing. The temperature looks to be cold, and with the morning dew set to keep the ground moist, it's hard to envisage the ground drying out.

As for the field that race in this, I'm not totally convinced a lot of the horses stay this trip on this ground, other than maybe Aso and Christmas In April, who both can be swerved in my opinion. Aso is a good horse, but carries top weight, and like we saw at Exeter, he was convincingly beaten when carrying top weight in a similar contest on similar ground. Christmas In April is dropping to a decent mark, but you'd want to have seen a little more from him in recent starts before putting your money on him. And for the rest, I don't think they will stay, with Kauto Riko potentially being the one you have to look out for. He stayed on well behind Two For Gold at Doncaster, but he ran a strange old race, and hung left, so I'm not totally convinced.

As for the recent start of Prime Venture, if you watch it back, it looks like a public schooling, and one of the last pieces of work before being aimed at a specific race, and I think that race is this. Watching the race back, Isabel Williams never at any stage gave Prime Venture a hard time, which included no hits with the whip, and it was all hands and heels. He didn't look tired when jumping the hurdles in the final parts of the race, and if anything he stayed on well, and that would have put him right for this race. I'm always quite wary with this trainer/jockey combination, as they are known for not trying, but when they do target a race, they normally go close.

Newbury 1:50

This is a cracking race, and is full of horses who predominately want a quicker surface, which I don't think it will become despite the dry forecast, so my money is going on GLEN FORSA.

It's crazy to see how much this horse fell off in recent years after looking like an absolute machine when he first was sent over fences. He went off 9/2 second fav for the Arkle in 2019, and since his unseat in that race his form has been relatively poor. However, Charlie Longsdon managed to find the key to him and he found a nice opportunity for him at Musselburgh last time, and he manner in which he won suggested there's life in the old dog yet. For some reason he had been campaigned over longer trips, and even though he could probably win a race over 3m (albeit when his mark drops), he is better suited over shorter, and today's ground will play to his strengths, in my opinion. He does stay slightly further, but the ground will make it more of a stamina test, and that will fall into his lap. He handles all types of ground, is in good form, and is still ridiculously well handicapped off a mark of 134. He runs in this off the second bottom weight, and simply shouldn't be underestimated.

Both of the Nicholls horses apparently would prefer a quicker surface. Amoola Gold will have a tough task giving away the weight. Kildisart will need the run, and his trainer is confident that it normally takes him one run to get into peak fitness. Paint The Dream is on a tough mark, but a winnable one, but there's better treated horses, and might want slightly quicker ground. Senior Citizen is using this as a prep run for Aintree, so wouldn't want to win, which would put his mark up. Farinet would want it bottomless, and seems to perform best at Sandown, but shouldn't be overlooked & Dublin Four could be the blot in the race, but the trainer would want it quicker as well, but he races off bottom weight and is still unexposed. So at the odds, I think the selection is the EW value in the race.

Newbury 3:37

To see the current odds of KATESON floating around at 7/1 I think that is cracking, and makes him a definite EW bet. He is a 9yo now, but has shown glimpses that his ability remains, which has resulted in his handicap mark plummeting, making him very well handicapped.

Similar to Vive Le Roi, this horse will more than likely run from the front, and also like VLR he is a gutsy horse and will try his all. Today's conditions look perfect for him, with him being a performer on soft ground and this trip looks optimal. The recent runs so far this season haven't been without credit, he has been consistent, but has clearly been bumping into better handicapped horses, but now he is rated 128, which is effectively 118 as Jay Tidball takes off 10lbs. If he was racing off 118 in this with his recent form, and had a full time jockey on board, he'd be favourite, so I think he is being underestimated, and looks the bet in the race.

Hopefully the young lad gets the instructions to go from the front, and hopefully the others don't pester him for the lead, as that would be very beneficial to us.

Doncaster 2:20

Not my strongest selection, but I can't let odds of 33/1 go amiss with this Irish raider. Roger Joseph McGrath sends his first runner to Britain with SWEET STREET taking a chance in the Class 1 Listed Mares Novice race at Doncaster. If truth be told, this race isn't that great, and for a Class 1 race, I'd say it's pretty weak, so the fact that this Irish Raider is being totally disregarded is total rubbish.

This mare has better form than what some might think. Among the cluttered form of this horse comes some good form with a 3rd in a novice hurdle race, where she finished 3L behind the winner (Chemical Charge), who has been given a rating of 132 and was 2nd in a Grade 3. Lunar Display was runner-up that day, and she is a previous listed winner, and was an unlucky loser in the recent listed mares race at Navan a few weeks ago. On that day, Sweet Street was leading, headed, but stayed on extremely well to finish a not so distant 3rd. I think personally think this 3m is what she wants, as on other occasions she has stayed on strongly, such as her run at Limerick on soft ground where she finished 4th. She finished with a proper rattle that day, and wasn't disgraced behind some decent horses in Off Your Rocco and The Little Yank.

With the ground being testing, and knowing full well this horse handles those conditions, I really think a 3m test on soft ground and a long straight which will allow her to hit top gear with plenty of time should suit her to the ground. Whether she is good enough to win a Class 1 Listed race, that's the main question, but at odds of 33/1 I'm definitely putting my money on to find out. When the Irish send horses over, they don't play games, they come to take over.

Kelso 2:40

I've been waiting for the day that ITCHY FEET was given the chance over 3m, and that day is today, and I'm putting my money where my mouth is.

I can't believe it's taken connections so long to give him the chance over a trip which he seemingly has been crying out for, in my opinion. Every time he runs over 2m 4f or similar he runs on strongly, and suggests every time that he needs further. The same happened again last time at Lingfield in a very tough race, but he was full of running and was given too much of a gap to bridge and stayed on strongly to be beaten by 2.75L. I think Gavin Sheehan gave him a pretty poor ride that day, as he had him on the backfoot and he didn't have the speed to go with the them, so the fact he was detached made life much harder for him. The form of that race has worked out well, with the winner being runner-up in a Grade 1 at Ascot, finishing behind Fakir D'Oudaries, which is clearly good form, and Bristol De Mai ran a huge race off top weight in a marathon race on heavy ground at Haydock, where he finished 2nd, but ran his heart out and produced an effort of 167.

This track, trip and ground looks to suit this horse, and he is the horse who will put it up against the favourite.

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