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Beating The Odds ran a strange race at Punchestown. He was off the bridle sooner than I was hoping for, then battled back to take a share of the lead, before being outstayed by the Byrnes horse and a JP McManus winner. It was a good effort and should be able to land a similar race in the not-so-distant future.
Naas 1:05
The horse to beat in terms of form is the Gordon Elliott runner, Three Card Brag who has already been placed in a Class 1 race. However, considering he didn't manage to win that, I think it might be worth going against him, so I've decided to go with the McManus runner, INTHEPOCKET who is 1/1 over hurdles and won his only PTP race too.
I don't think his PTP form is anything extraordinary but it shows he stays 3m, which gives the impression today's new trip of 2m 4f will be beneficial to his progression needed to win a Class 1. As a result of his PTP win, he was bought for 290k, and JP saw 6k of that repaid when winning in an emphatic fashion at Wexford on his hurdles debut. He was supported in the market, going off as 7/4 market favourite and he made mincemeat of that maiden field, beating some decent horses in the process. The runner-up looks like a horse who will be better when entering handicaps and the 3rd was a respectable bumper horse who has since recorded an RPR of 140 after his pummelling to Inthepocket. Sometimes you get a gut feeling that a horse could be very good and I got that from that run at Wexford.
Absolute Notions will be fancied in the market for Jack Kennedy and Gordon Elliott who is also 2/2 as a racehorse. I didn't get the same vibe from this horse when he won on his hurdles debut, it was more workmanlike. He was a good bumper horse though, winning on his debut in a 50k race in the Punchestown spring festival this year, so he's clearly not a slouch, but I think he might not be as good as my selection.
Ludlow 1:15
With the expected rain at Ludlow, I think another chance can be taken on FRENCHY DU LARGE.
Venetia Williams has hit good form before the many cancellations of race meetings and this horse made his seasonal reappearance at Lingfield off a 248-day break and was backed into 5/2F. I think the market vibes with this one are quite relevant as he arrived at that race on the back of a fall and a runner-up finish, so wasn't exactly in great form connections must have been told he was working very well at home. Unfortunately, it didn't work out how they would've liked with him falling early on into his race, however, with that run under his belt he might be worth trying again.
His best form has come on soft ground, so the rain which is landing at Ludlow is a big help, as it should turn the ground to soft. He clearly appreciates the track, as he is 1/1 when winning over hurdles. He still has to prove he stays 3m but I fully trust Venetia when upping him in trip. We've seen it many times where she has put her horses up in distance and they've found plenty of improvement, which is probably why the market was very positive on his chances at Lingfield.
Ludlow 2:20
Some of you might remember of when I put up a treble a few weeks ago, which absolutely flopped. One of the horses was beaten by FLANN and I was very impressed with the Fergal O'Brien horse who travelled very strong through the race and won nicely off a big weight of 12st.
I was well aware that Flann might've been well-handicapped that day, but I believe the odds-on favourite was also well-treated by the handicapper, so for Flann to do win by 7L was eye-catching to say the least. I'm going to stick to my guns and believe that the runner-up is very capable of winning a couple of races off his current rating, so based on that Flann is surely going to run another big race off a 4lb higher mark.
He will have to race under different conditions to what he faced last time but he has won on soft ground when winning a bumper race a couple of years ago, so I'm fairly certain he will handle the conditions and he is a versatile horse.
2:50 Ludlow – Hatcher *each way punt*
3:55 Southwell – Lord Paramount ****BANKER****
4:15 Newcastle – Brewing ***NAP***
5:00 Southwell – Solar Prophet **NB**
“Sassin’ frassin’ Dick Dastardly.”
Ferrobin 12-15 Ludlow 22-1 ew extra 6 places.
well done elvis
Great shout elvis
capilano bridge 12.05 ew
Not a day to be throwing your hard earned cash around with all the big fields, but I’ll take a chance on Lady Berlais 1.50 Ludlow, probably more of an ew extra @ 35s for top 7 or 150s for top 3 if your feeling adventurous
GL
Sneaked into 7th but I’ll take that
FIRST CHARGE 7/1 ew 1343
it seems a bit too obvious to back the loughnane’s atm, but if youve profited from them recently then i on paper theirs must have place claims.
the horse has won over 2m plenty of times so hopefully over slightly shorter the race plays to his strengths. a 1.5l 4th lto after a 5month break was OK enough but now billy is on claiming 7. he hasnt won for a year but it was from 10lbs higher. we get a 10lb pull with the cherchi/murphy runner whilst TYPEWRITTEN’s trainer caught my eye and is of interest up in trip. bet appropriately as it isnt overly studious.
poor selection but was 10lbs better off for a length defeat lto with todays 2nd .. thats horse…running.
Beggarmans road 345
Brewing 415
Megan Moon 515 nap
Morning all
Start my day with
9
Brides Hill
Brides Hill
J: K M Donoghue
T: G P Cromwell
16
well done spurs 55
Thanks Azz
I do try 🤞
Morgan has 12-50 pau 🇫🇷
4-1 win bet365
Evens top 4 finish BETFAIR
Won on this card last year !!!
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The emenent goose 1-50 Ludlow
12-1 ew extra 7 places
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Gumball 2-50 Ludlow 5-2
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El Martel 3-10 pau 🇫🇷
16-1 ew 5 places bet365
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added bonus 12.35 ew
imperial jade 12.45 ew boughtbeforelunch 1.15 ew albaquirky 1.35 ew be fierce 2.05 ew shan dancer 2.00 ew always giving 2.35 ew well done all winners yesterday
typewritten 1.43 was given this horse as a tip so I’ll give it
Thanks rizz
Lovely start ,on the other 2 as well in a patent
🙏
👎
Lots of luck
14.20 Ludlow
Or not!!
Afternoon all
Can can girl 2.40n 9-1
Mister falsetto 3.13n 16-1
Revoquable 3.55s 16-1
Starter for ten 4.30s 8-1
Barney’s bay 4.45n 9-1
Tathmeen 5.00s 14-1
Ew singles & ew lucky63☘️☘️gl all
no fussing 3.40 ew well done all winners today
Lancashire life 5.00 ew
🇺🇸
One from my notes ,the Nap and 2 from a source for a Trixie…
Zia Park -R4…Marking Time 11/10
Delta Down-R8…Langs Day 2/1
Penn National-R6…Dweller. 4/1 Nap/***
GL as always and well done to the winners today