Racing tips: In form Lihou can take the step up in class in his stride

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The Irish Raider was another poor performance from those that I have backed in recent days from that part of the world, makes you think why send them over if they're that bad? 

Wintercrack wasn't great either, but her odds suggested that as she did drift out to 100/1 before the off. They got to the front and had a fair few of them off the bridle, but nothing was going to beat the winner. At first, I thought that you can't really rate the performance as she's probably beaten a load of rubbish in behind, but that turn of foot she had turning for home was the thing which impressed me, she is a live contender for the Oaks and is as short as 6/4. If I was to bet on her, it would be the Arc at 12/1, but she'll drift from those odds before the Oaks, as Ante Post betting isn't my style, but I rate that as better value than 6/4 for the Oaks.

Chester 1:30 – Lihou 3/1 (2pt PPower)

I was keen on backing Navello for this year but he is a NR so that's left me backing Lihou who could profit from this being a race which won't suit many.

King's Lynn is the class horse in the race, but if he was to win this race off a mark of 107 then it would be a very good performance. It's his first start in a handicap for a few years where he finished 3rd off a mark of 100. He is a horse who needs a very quick pace to aim at, which he should get, but giving the weight away to a horse who is in the form of his life like Lihou could be too much of a tough task.

Lihou has been running extremely well this spring/winter on the AW and on the turf, recording four wins since the start of 2023 and he can continue that rich vein of form at Chester. He has a good draw in stall 2, which should see him get a handy position behind some of the free-going pace setters, and then he should hopefully be able to kick on when they begin to fade. The form of his wins and near misses stacks up well in this, even though it's a step up in class, but I think he's more than up to the task.

Chester 2:05 – Surely Not 4/1 (1pt)

The horse who might not be as good as some of these in the future but is ready to win today is Surely Not.

This horse has always had the ability to be a good handicapping horse but his ability had always been halted by how keen he has been. He was keen in his last race on seasonal reappearance at Newmarket, but he powered clear when Hollie Doyle allowed him to stretch his legs and he won by a good margin. That was his first run since his gelding-op, and though it didn't work as well as connections would've liked as he didn't settle fully, it was an improvement and they always say the op can take a run or so before you see the full effects.

He was given a 7lb rise in the weights, which makes this much tougher, but if he does settle there is definitely more to come from Dominic Ffrench Davis' horse, especially with the yard being in as good form as it is currently. Buick also takes over from Hollie, I rate Hollie massively but Buick is top drawer and it's a noticeable booking for a decent prize pot, and he is 2/4 when riding for this stable.

Chester 3:15 – Lone Eagle 20/1 (0.5pt EW B365)

This is a very good renewal of the Ormonde Stakes, and you've got some classy horses turning up with last year's winner Hamish being the one they all have to beat.

This is a bit of a risky one as he does tend to blow hot and cold, but I'm willing to give a chance to Lone Eagle in this race, as I think this track could play to his strengths. He is a horse who is seen to be effective by front running, and we all know how much of a bias Chester has towards those who race prominently. He has never raced at this track, but based on his running style it should suit him, as should the soft ground. The trip is an unknown, but it is a tight track, so it won't be as stamina-sapping if it was at Newmarket or Ascot where it's a stiff finish, also if they decide to stick to the positive tactics Rossa Ryan could slow the race down and make it a muddling race, which would suit.

On his day, this horse has plenty of ability and the form he has shown over the years proves that. He finished 2nd in the Irish Derby in 2021 when given a beautiful front running ride by Frankie, to be denied by a neck to Hurricane Lane, and we all know what a quality horse he has gone on and become. They pulled 7L clear that day and he produced an RPR of 120. That was his last real top-level performance, and he has been relatively poor since, but he hasn't been in a rhythm, having several long breaks between his races, and considering he has never won when fresh, but has won 2nd time out on two occasions would suggest he needs to build his fitness up to get to his peak. His run last time out wasn't great, he was quite keen and lit up from the headgear, but it wasn't terrible. That was his first start for Ralph Beckett and there were some decent portions of late money for him, so they must've thought he had a decent chance that day.

At the odds, I think he is a good EW candidate in this.

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