This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
Though the pair of selections on Thursday were short-priced, they both won with ease and it's better than a kick in the nuts to land them both, so I can't really complain.
I want to comment on that performance by Galopin Des Champs, as that was simply breathtaking. I've been in the Gerri Colombe camp for the Gold Cup since last year when he just didn't have enough track to beat The Real Whacker in the Brown Advisory, but based on that, they're all going to be playing catch up with the defending champ. Great performance from the Mullins horse.
Leopardstown 1:10 – Telmesomethinggirl 13/2 (0.5pt EW, SkyBet 4pl)
This is an interesting race and it doesn't appear that Willie Mullins is a guaranteed winner of this race, which has normally been the case since 2016 where he has won every renewal apart from the 2021 race which was won by Royal Kahala. I fancied two in this race, but ended up going for Telmesomethinggirl who has to prove her fitness in this race with this being her first run in 228 days.
Not only does she have to prove her fitness, she has to prove she still possesses the ability to win races like this. She was once a very capable mare over hurdles, but since they moved her to fences she has never looked settled and her two runs in the spring were very poor, so it's not a surprise they are reverting back to hurdles, but it does leave a question mark hanging over her head, but I'm willing to take a chance on her. I don't think this race is full of top-quality mares, so if Telmesomethinggirl could bounce back to performance from her 2021 Cheltenham win and 2021 running of this race which saw her finish 3rd, she'd be bang there. She was carrying top weight in this race in 2021 and was only beaten into 3rd by 1.25L by a horse who went on to win a Grade 2 over 3m and had Heaven Help Us just ahead, who was a very capable front-running mare a couple of seasons ago, so it was a good run. For this race, she is carrying 10st 11lbs which means she is in receipt of weight from every other horse in the race and when you consider she has the best form from when she was over hurdles, she has to be worth a chance.
The ground is going to be testing, but the way she ran on soft to heavy at this venue over slightly shorter proved she handles the ground and that she would probably stay further, which is going to be a must.
Of the others I did like the look of Space Tourist as she won over 2m 6f last time out, and I like that angle where you know she'll stay, she has questions over the form, but she is a decent price and I wouldn't put anyone off from backing her. As for the rest of the field, I'm not sold on the form or whether they'll stay the trip, and I'd try and avoid any form line that Saylavee is involved in as I think it looks very weak, which sounds daft as that is the pick of Paul Townend.
Leopardstown 1:45 – Favori De Champdou 7/2 (1pt)
This is another very intriguing race as you have many who have a great chance of winning this, but the one I landed on was the sole Gordon Elliott runner in the contest, Favori De Champdou.
I can understand why Corbetts Cross is the favourite, he is a very smart horse, but I'm still a bit unsure with him over fences. His form is very debatable as he could've won the Albert Bartlett in the spring if he hadn't run out of the hurdle when jumping the last, but still, that form is questionable to me. Stay Away Fay is a strong stayer, but is he really a Grade 1 horse? I'm not sure, and I don't think he stands a chance in the Grade 1 at Cheltenham in the spring. Affordable Fury beat my selection over fences, but that was my selections first run over fences and chances are that he wasn't 100% fit and he needed further than the 2m 6f that day, and has since reversed that form massively. Letsbeclearaboutit was a close 4th at Cheltenham, my selection was well on top of that horse when they previously met and Sandor Clegane was 3rd but has since been smoked by Favori De Champdou over fences. Don't get me wrong he could win this today, but at the prices, I think he is a bit too short to be backing him.
The form of my horse over fences is dubious as Flooring Porter went walkabouts at Punchestown last time out, which isn't a surprise as he doesn't like going right-handed, but I think my horse would've been victorious either way as Flooring Porter wasn't going violently to the left until late on, which might've been because his engine was flagging. Flooring Porter will have backers now he's going left-handed again, but I don't like the fact that Weveallbeencaught was as close as he was to him when he won in convincing style at Cheltenham. The runner-up has franked the form by plenty, but the 3rd was a bit too close for me to think he's going to make big inroads as a chaser at the top level. Grangeclare West made a winning chase debut, but I don't think Corbetts Cross jumped the best, nor was it all about that day for the McManus horse, so I'd heavily back him reversing the form of that race.
Gordon Elliott has won this race five times in the last ten years and has won it with some nice horses like Fury Road, Battleoverdoyen, Delta Work and a couple of others and he's like a specific route for this race, either running his horses in the Drinmore over 2m 4f or the race at Punchestown which Favori De Champdou won. Battleoverdoyen won the exact race that Favori won and Shattered Love was 2nd in that race for the 2017 renewal before winning today's race, which saw Jury Duty win the Punchestown race and then finish 2nd to Shattered Love here.
I thought at the odds he was the pick and a no-brainer at that, he stays very well and jumps very well from what we've seen from him on his two chase starts. There's a lot of waffle there for this race, so I'm sorry if you're bored reading, but that's my thought process.
Doncaster 2:45 – Dreaming Blue 9/2 (1pt)
For my sole selection on British soil, I've opted for the Anthony Honeyball runner, Dreaming Blue who is running at Doncaster.
Anthony Honeyball did me a favour at Doncaster a couple of weeks ago when sending Forward Plan up North to land a nice pot and I think this rare runner at the track has to be respected, especially when you notice he's running off bottom weight. Anthony has sent 30 runners to the track since he started training, but in the last five years that has been dropped to just five runners, which has returned two winners and a placed effort, so he doesn't like to waste his darts when coming to Doncaster and I think this lad has a nice chance of winning this race with the ground not being too testing.
He is already a course winner which came earlier this year in March, but it came over 2m 4f, but the form looks decent as the runner-up was strongly fancied and then went on to win on his next two starts, the front two pulled 7L clear of the third and a further 15L extra to the fourth, so it's interesting they are coming back to Doncaster on this horse's second start over 3m. They tried the extended 3m 1f at Ludlow last time out on soft ground, and his effort faded in the final furlong, so the drop back to 3m and on better ground looks the right move, and coming to a track he clearly likes to another positive.
This is Rex Dingles only ride of the day and Anthony's sole runner of the day, so I think they fancy their chances of going back to South with a win.
I thought the outsider of the field was an interesting horse at a big price for those who like big priced horses, he finished 5th in this race last year off a 10lb higher mark, has won over C&d, but his recent form is very poor.
No joy yesterday for myself but what a performance from GDC. He really showed whose King of the staying chase division.
Nephin Beg 9/1 ew 5 places 12.00 leop
Makes chase h’cap debut today. Won on Hurdle h’cap debut at odds of 33/1 so bookies are being wise here hence the price.
His best form so far was when beaten 45L by Silent Approach who followed that up by winning a grade 2 nto.
1.10 Tellmesomethinggirl 13/2 ew
Chase career was a disaster so reverts back to hurdles today. HDB said in his stable tour that this race was the plan for her so its not a knee jerk reaction and has been planned. On best form she wins this and getting weight from the field certainly helps.
1.45 Corbetts Cross 7/4
I’ve no doubt that Corbetts Cross is the best horse in the field but they don’t always come out on tip.
Flooring Porter will be much happier going left handed and loves this track but I don’t think he’ll get it all his own way up front as Grangeclare West also likes to dictate and the 2 could take each other on setting it up for the rest.
1.45
I’m amazed the State Man is taking on IEP and won’t actually believe its happening until I see them at the start. Could end up being a hard race for both on this ground which is not something either horse would want.
If they do line up I’ll be on IEP on this ground and the price difference to too big imo.
2.55 Waterford Whispers 5/2
Won the last 2 and I still think he’s ahead of the handicapper.
Ex Patriot 11/2 12.20 Limerick
This is an awful race but if EP retains any ability surely is good enough to take this off 123.
BOL
young buster 1.55 well done all winners yesterday
fergal o Brian only run at the course today where he as a good strike rate at the course over the past 5 years
Only runner means only loser you should know that by now 😂 like the 600 mile round trips they do that end up losing 😂
yup I think them horse must have walked there sometimes dazzman 1979 I’m going to have to look at a extra horse now
ill throw reslyn pleasure into the mix 12.20
didn’t have time to jinx that one dazzman 1979 mate
Haha yeah I was out running trying to get rid of my hog fat ! Yeah I’m trying to jinx it in a good way so by saying that you can mock me and gloat after 😂 what your saying can be the case a lot of times but sometimes it can be a bit of a red herring if it was always the case then we would only ever bet on those circumstances when they arise . There ain’t really any kind of pattern to follow if there was the bookies would soon spot it and find a way of eliminating it 😂 best of luck anyways 👍💰🤞
Well done azz you can gloat now 😂😂👍
cheers dazzman 1979
Zambella 1-40 Doncaster 2-1 NAP
4:00 Southwell- al suil eile 13/2
well done dazzman 1979
Cheers mate , pays towards the lipo 😂
Al suil eile 14/1 with the drift 😂😂💰💰