Racing tips: Homme Public seems overpriced based on his run before last time out

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Today is a decent day of racing, with a couple of decent handicaps. Hopefully I can bounce back to form, and potentially land a nice priced winner or two.

Hereford 3:40

I tipped up COQUELICOT when she won last time out in November when she was upped in trip to 3m for the first time. She won nicely that day, after getting a good front running ride by Rex Dingle. She has been put up 7lbs for that win, and whilst the form isn't good, I think she has more to come over this trip off her current mark.

The ground is soft, and she seems to be fine on this kind of surface. The low weight she carries in comparison to the others in the race is obviously an advantage, especially on stamina sapping ground. This race could become tactical due to the fact there is only four runners, and if that's the case, it wouldn't surprise me to see Rex employ the same tactics which were successful at Chepstow when he last rode her. If she gets an easy lead, she could be very tough to peg back.

Emmpressive Lady is obviously a big danger in this, but she comes into this after competing in a race 3 days ago, so that might've come too quick. She handles the ground very well, like we know after she won for us, but off a 7lb higher mark and on potentially tired legs, she can be opposed at the odds.

Wetherby 2:05

For a Wednesday handicap, this is a decent little race, which is fairly competitive on paper. However, at the odds I really do like the chances of HOMME PUBLIC. I think you can look past his most recent run, which clearly wasn't a true showing of his ability, and was an off day for him. His trainer, Oliver Greenall said that his horses weren't firing at that time over the Christmas period, but he's in a better shape now.

Oliver seems to think that this horse doesn't want too much rain, but he seemed to handle the heavy going at Haydock the time before last, so I wouldn't be all that concerned. There is a chance that he doesn't go for this race, as he is declared for a race at Sandown on Thursday, so we'll have to see.

The form of his Haydock race where he finished 3rd has worked out extremely well, and that's why I think he is massive odds. The winner, 2nd, 5th, 8th and 11th have all won since, with many of the others running creditably as well. This has been a good form line to follow.

The soft ground shouldn't be an issue like I mentioned previously, and the fact he gets in this off 10st 4lbs is a big plus. You are taking a chance that he'll return to form, but for the odds on offer, I think he is worth that chance.

Wetherby 3:15

A horse who I have backed the last couple of times, and have been let down by is CHEF D'OEUVRE. Unfortunately for me, this horse hasn't run to form the last couple of times I have backed him, but I still believe he will be winning a race soon, and finger's crossed today is the day, as he is simply well handicapped to do so.

The ground should be spot on for him, as he handles testing conditions, and the big field should ensure a good gallop is set, which will play to his strengths as he is a strong stayer. He is well handicapped off old pieces of form, and his last winning mark came off 124, which is 9lbs higher than now.

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