Racing tips: HOLLOWAY will be the men amongst BOYs

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Hands up from me after the two selections on Wednesday didn't run how I hoped. The Gordon Elliott runner was poor, and definitely in the grips of the British handicapper, as he does have a higher rating than if he was to race in Ireland, he didn't exactly stay on as well as I thought he would. The NAP of the day, Miss Candy, ran an okay race but bumped into another progressive 3yo, so she probably isn't one to give up on just yet.

Newmarket 3:00

This four-runner race, which is effectively a three-runner race is extremely interesting as we'll find out how good HOLLOWAY BOY is or if the Sir Michael Stoute horse is the real deal, which I think he might not be. I've not mentioned the Godolphin horse, which might be stupid as you should never underestimate Charlie Appleby, but I feel he has to improve to beat Holloway Boy.

Holloway Boy won at Royal Ascot at odds of 40/1 on debut in the Chesham Stakes. The form hasn't exactly worked out well, and for that reason, I decided to take him on when he next raced at Goodwood where he eventually finished 2nd. I was pleasantly surprised that he ran that well as I thought he was massively underpriced that day (11/8F) and I felt he was going to bomb out, but he didn't and he recorded an RPR of 105 in the process. The form of that race is questionable but the third, Mysterious Night has gone on to win a Group 3 in France and a Group 1 at Woodbine (Canada) on the weekend just gone, so there is some substance to the Goodwood race.

I don't think this horse is a Group 1 horse by any means, but I think the odds available compared to the other two main rivals makes him a bet in this. I'm not totally sold on Victory Dance, he's clearly a nice horse and finished 2nd in a Group 2 behind Isaac Shelby, but I think Holloway Boy is better than that horse so will have to improve to win this, and I think his odds are shorter than what they should be. As for Nostrum, he did well to win on debut, and when that happens for a Sir Michael Stoute horse they have to be respected as I do think they tend to come on plenty for their run. However, I think he got the run of the race and could've been flattered by the winning margin. He followed the leader around in second spot and then managed to kick on, showing a decent turn of foot, but the horses towards the back never got involved, and for that reason, I think he has questions to answer and being a short-priced favourite based on that run seems a little crazy. He could be the best horse in this race, but I've seen it on many occasions where horses with this profile get stuffed on their try at Class 1 races, so I'll be going against him with the Karl Burke runner.

Newmarket 3:35

Not great odds available on THUNDEROUS, but I still think the 10/11 on offer is arguably very good value as he is the class horse in the race and if he turns up in anywhere near the same level of form in recent runs, he should be tough to beat.

He is a typical Mark Johnston horse who has plenty of runs and seems to thrive off it. He's chucked in a couple of stinkers this year, which isn't ideal, but for the most part he has been a very good horse who had produced RPRs in the low 110s 3x, including a runner-up finish to Stradivarius, who isn't the force of old, but is still a very capable stayer. Thunderous' most latest run was a good effort off a weight of 9st 12lbs in a Class 2 heritage handicap worth 52k, which produced an RPR of 112. The winner was clearly well-handicapped, winning by 3L off a mark of 96 before going on to finish 2nd in the Ebor three days later.

People might have a concern about the pace in the race, as like many Johnston runners, he has tended to make the running in a lot of his races. However, Nate The Great, Island Brave and Skycutter have been known to race handily, so I can see Ryan Moore letting them crack on if they decide to race against each other for the lead, as Thunderous does seem uncomplicated. But, if there is an opportunity to grab an easy lead, then I think it's obvious that Ryan will take advantage of it.

Even though he has the best form in this race I wouldn't say it's a walk in the park as you do have some good horses like Nate The Great who has it in him to run a big race in this, but he seems a little too inconsistent for my liking. Ranch Hand was a decent horse before taking a break of 467 days, so has to prove he is ready to rock and roll for this after such a big absence. Island Brave was a recent winning tip for me, and even though he is a favourite of mine, he is seen to be more of a handicapper than a Pattern horse, so shouldn't be good enough at this point in his career.

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