Racing tips: Fences look tailor made for Paul Nicholls’ novice chaser Mr Glass

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Apologies from me for Sunday's selections, they weren't great and I went into Sunday with plenty of hope and expectation and was disappointed as both ran very badly. Playful Saint, who I also had plenty of hope for at 28/1 was a non-runner in the Greatwood hurdle, which is a shame but based on how yesterday went it was probably 1pt saved.

Exeter 3:00

A four-runner race but a very good novice chase for a Monday, which includes a winner, and some potentially nice horses to follow over fences for this season. For me, MR GLASS should be difficult to beat if he can transition to fences without any issues.

Masters Legacy won a nice race last time at this track, beating some good hardy handicappers, but coming back into a novice race that means he'll have to carry a penalty, and doing that against some totally unexposed horses over fences could be a difficult job. Young Butler was very strong in the market for her chase debut but she looked awful over fences. It was like she had never seen a fence before in her life and lacked a lot of confidence, as well as her technique being sketchy. Hidden Heroics will win races over fences this season, that isn't a question, but I'm hoping it's not today, but any market confidence in her favour would be a major concern as they don't often get it wrong at the Skelton stable.

Mr Glass is my selection as I eluded to at the beginning. He is the only horse in the lineup to arrive at this race without a run under his belt for this season, though that isn't ideal, I don't think it's a major problem as his track record of running when fresh is amazing. He has won on the last three occasions from a layoff and was 3rd on racecourse debut so the fact he is fresh has to be seen as a positive. Another major positive is the form of the yard and the jockey. Some of these numbers are utterly ridiculous… Paul Nicholls in the last fourteen days has had 17/40 wins to runs (43%SR) and Harry Cobden has 19/33 wins to runs which is a 58% SR, that is insane, so they are both riding on a wave at the moment and everything they touch turns to gold.

Mr Glass has always been a project for fences, he's built like a chaser and it would be a real shame if he couldn't improve from last season now he tackles the larger obstacles. He was a decent novice hurdler but didn't exactly set the world alight, but this is surely his game and I think he could be backed into odds-on.

Plumpton 2:40

I've missed the boat with the early prices on STORM HILL but that doesn't mean the current odds available aren't worthy of him being a bet, as they totally are.

Paul Henderson's 7yo caused a big surprise in February of last season when winning a maiden hurdle by 4L at odds of 40/1. When something like that happens, it's instantly thought that it could've been a fluke, so to see him fall just under two weeks ago when being strongly fancied was a bit of a shock. I don't think his win was a fluke as the form of the win has started to work out extremely well.

The runner-up has since won twice as well finishing in the top three five times. The third-placed horse has finished as runner-up twice, currently rated 107. Considering Storm Hill makes his handicap debut off a mark of 101, you'd have to say he's well-handicapped as he has beaten a 107-rated horse by 4L when they met and he did it with ease. It's not ideal for him to come to this race on the back of a fall, but at least he's gained a little fitness during that run and it's clearly not affected him mentally or physically as Paul Henderson sends him out just 13 days later.

If he makes a clear round of jumping he should be extremely tough to beat. I also rate the booking of Jamie Moore who I'm a big fan of.

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