Racing tips: Dubai Emperor to take the step up in trip in his stride

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If you backed my selections to finish 2nd over the last couple of days you'd be quids in. That's 5 of the last 6 I've put up that have finished runner-up. It's incredibly frustrating when it happens, but the fact they are running well and going close does suggest I'm doing the right thing, other than getting a bit of luck here and there. It will turn at some point, hopefully starting off with today.

Lingfield 1:50

To see GLASVEGAS priced up at an EW price is nice to see, as I was expecting him to be a little shorter. There is a few recent winners in this race, who will attract a fair amount of market support, but I think David Evans' 5yo could be a good enough mark to pounce now he's back at Lingfield and over a trip which suits.

His first start this season was arguably a fitness run, as it was over a trip he's never tried before and based on his pedigree and his runs to date, it wasn't going to suit. Sure enough he got tired late on, but it set him up nicely for his run in February where he ran on well to finish 4th, after being held up off the pace like a normal Jamie Spencer ride. With more positive tactics I think he could have won that race, so the fact he has been dropped 1lb for that run is a benefit. Back at Lingfield, where it often proves deadly to be close to the pace, drawn in Stall 2 is a plus, and Jamie Spencer off him is also a positive. George Downing takes the ride, and he does remarkably well when riding for David Evans. He has racked up 8 wins and a further 7 placed efforts (7 more in 4th) from 51 runs, which is a 16% SR which has yielded a +22.25 profit to level stakes. Hopefully Glasvegas breaks well enough for George to get a handy position where he can avoid the trouble of going wide around the final bend.

When this horse dropped to a similar mark in the past he went on and won a few in quick succession, with the two first wins coming at this track. Those wins came off marks of 69 and 71, so his current mark of 68 makes him dangerous to ignore. and at the prices I think he is a very good each way bet.

Chelmsford 4:40

In a race where it doesn't look amazing in terms of competition, I think a chance can be taken on DUBAI EMPEROR who tries the trip for the first time.

Her pedigree does give confidence that this trip can suit, as the Dam was a winner over this trip and slightly further. This horse has looked like it's worth a try over a longer trip as he has stayed on well in his races over 10f. Obviously this is a big step up in trip, but for a horse who has won at this course, and has the steering of Jamie Spencer, I think he is worth backing and taking on the favourite who does stay this trip, but doesn't have the progressive profile like Dubai Emperor.

Jamie Spencer isn't really my cup of tea as a jockey, but I think his style will suit this horse. The fact he hasn't raced over this trip before, he will be ridden patiently and Jamie will give him the best chance of getting this trip. He is very good at switching horses off, and keeping as much energy in tact as possible, which is what he'll need for trying a new trip. A mark of 63 looks manageable, and this still somewhat lightly raced horse, who clearly appreciated the AW, could have more to come.

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