Racing tips: Drop in class will make it hard for Light Infantry to lose

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Colin Keane is just different gravy isn't he? I know he doesn't have the best of strike rates when he comes over to the UK, but in Ireland he's the best around, other than when Ryan goes over. The ride he gave Crassus was one of the best rides I've seen in a long time. Crassus was in the last two in a big field, he didn't panic when Frankie kicked for home 4f out, he bided his time and weaved his mount through the pack and the horse won with a fair amount in hand.

On the other hand, Paul Mulrennan was very weak in the finish on Diamondonthehill. I can't believe he didn't get my selection placed. The horse travelled like a dream for most of the race, better than nearly ever horse and looked to have a chance of winning even with 1.5f left to run, but he was mugged for a place on the line.

Haydock 1:50 – Light Infantry 13/8 (2pt Bet365)

When seeing the ground for Haydock being on the fast side I originally thought Light Infantry would struggle, but analysing the race more, I think he wins.

This is a poor race, and it's a much easier race than what Light Infantry has been running against for quite a while, as he has been kept to Group 1 races for the majority of the season, other than a Group 2 on seasonal reappearance, so the fact he is short odds for this Group 3 contest isn't a surprise. He has the best form in this race by a country mile, and I think he is capable of winning this race even on ground which is far from ideal, but his class should be more than enough to get him the win against some exposed horses and not Group 1 level performers.

Zoology appears to be the horse that might attract support from punters who want to have a play in the race against the favourite. For me, he has a very slim chance of winning this. He finished 2nd at Royal Ascot in the Jersey Stakes, but the form of that race stinks, nothing to my eye has come out and franked the form, and when you consider a 22/1 from Aidan O'Brien won it, who has since been transferred to James Ferguson, and 22/1 Zoology was second, it's hardly a surprise that the form isn't holding up. There's no way that connections would've moved the horse out of Aidan's yard if he was a potential Group 1 horse. Also, Zoology is making his stable debut for Harry Eustace, which is hardly ideal. I think he will enjoy the step up in trip, but I think he is miles behind Light Infantry in terms of class.

Chindit and Regal Reality are both solid group-level performers, but if they were winning this over a horse like Light Infantry I would be very disappointed.

Haydock 4:45 – Macduff 13/8 (1pt Bet365)

I was on the receiving end of the Macduff gamble at Newmarket nearly a month ago when I backed the Godolphin horse, Broadway Act, on debut in a race that Charlie Appleby has won in the past.

I was counting my money on Broadway Act who began to get the upper hand in the race until Macduff picked up like he grew an extra leg and powered home to win in convincing style. Considering Charlie Appleby has a 40% SR at Newmarket's July course with 2yos, it was impressive for Macduff to do what he did on debut. However, the signs were there for all to see and it was hardly surprising given the amount of money which arrived for this horse many hours before the race.

He is a well-bred horse being by Sea The Stars out of a Bated Breath 90 rated mare, so you'd like to imagine there's a fair bit more to come and this step up to Listed level isn't going to halt his progress. It's hard to get a gauge of how good a horse is off one run, but sometimes you've got to go with the visual test and I believe my eyes saw a very good horse. He did a lot wrong on debut, but it didn't matter as when the penny dropped he was away.

Leopardstown 2:45 – Just Beautiful 8/1 (0.5pt EW Bet365)

It hurts not to be backing Zarinsk in this race, having been on her the last couple of times and becoming a big fan of hers in the process. I think she'll run well from the front, it'll hurt even more if she wins and I wasn't on, but I think Just Beautiful could run a big race.

The Moyglare Stud bought this filly for 625,000 Euros when she was trained in England by Ivan Furtado. She didn't have the best of starts when Paddy Twomey acquired her, not winning on her first two starts, and based on that I think a lot of people were expecting her to be retired to be a broodmare as she had a great career in the UK, accumulating a Listed and Group 3 win. However, they decided to bring her out for more this season and based on that you'd be thinking that connections believed she could win a Group 1 somewhere, and I think this is the race they might have been eyeing up.

She has always been best on ground which is quick, the ground should hopefully stay good even with the brief showers that Leopardstown is expecting to get. If it remains quick, she has a very good chance of winning this. She demolished a very decent Group 2 field last time out at the Curragh, where she made all. She won't be able to get an uncontested lead here with the likes of Zarinsk in this race, so I'd be hoping that Billy Lee sits behind Zarinsk and then pounce with the stronger stamina she has over Zarinsk and will hopefully be hard to catch.

This race has been a graveyard for short-priced favourites and favourites in general in the last ten years with the last one coming in 2015, being the only one to win in the last 10 renewals.

Leopardstown 3:55 – Victoria Road 11/4 (1pt WilliamHill)

If Victoria Road needed his seasonal reappearance 25 days ago, then he could batter these.

This doesn't appear to be a strong contest, especially in comparison to what Victoria Road was running against as a juvenile. It's a concern that he has missed the majority of the flat season, but that does make me confident that he needed that first run in France last time out, and that he would've come on plenty for it.

His form as a juvenile is second to none when comparing the form to the horses in this field. He is a Group 1 winner, something that only he can say in this field and that came at the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland. Before that, he had won twice in France, with arguably the strongest piece of form when beating Blue Rose Cen who has turned into a winning machine and one of the best 3yo fillies in the world. She has franked the form of Victoria Road many times, winning three Group 1s including the French 1000 Guineas and Oaks.

Victoria Road seems best on fast ground, like his father, so I'd really like it if not much rain came to the track and kept it on the fast side. If he is back in form, he will take a lot of beating.

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