Racing tips: Donald McCain’s sole runner on Tuesday can be a winner

This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.

Mercian Knight who was yesterday's selection looks gone at the game. He didn't want to race one bit, and even though he has come down the ratings, and is still a young horse in terms of a jumps horse, he just doesn't look interested.

Fakenham 12:10

A four runner race contested by 4yo novice hurdlers, and it doesn't seem to be full of ability. I think one of the newcomers is worth taking a punt on, with POLLYPOCKET looking the better of the two. This filly has got racecourse experience from her two bumper runs earlier this year, where she showed a lot of promise. She was third on her first start, and then went on to show a likeable battling characteristic to win the time after. The two horses who have hurdles experience in this are flat bred horses, and I think they are vulnerable to a proper jumps horse.

This won't be a strong race by any means, but I do think the selection could be the one who will be the best in time. The ones who have hurdling experience don't really have any stand out pieces of form, and even though they are decent on the flat, they're not really bred for the jumps game. Miss Muligan is probably the better of the two based on her first start over obstacles, but her jumping was quite novicey, and even though she could improve for that, I don't think it's likely. She was keen throughout the race, and with Pollypocket expected to get an easy lead of things, there is a chance that she could be keen again and pull away her chances in the early stages. Auditoria will probably be favourite due to the form of the stable and she has the most experience over hurdles.

The selection has some okay form from the bumpers runs she raced in. The runner-up on debut went on to win on hurdles debut, which produced an RPR of 121, so looks above average. The runner-up from the bumper she won went on to win a bumper in their next race.

Fakenham 1:50

The odds on offer for THE SOME DANCE KID might be a little slimmer than I was hoping for, but I do think he has a very solid chance of winning this off his current handicap mark.

This horse was once a decent novice hurdler who was rated as high as 130 back in January 2019, but since then his form has took a nose dive and as as result his handicap mark has dropped to 99 over fences and 104 over hurdles. He is still lightly raced over fences, and there's no reason why he isn't good enough to win a race over the larger obstacles, as he was a previous PTP placed horse, and his most recent run over fences suggested he could be well-in on his current mark. His most recent run was a good effort and a return to form, after many underwhelming runs. Out of the horses who raced prominently, he was the only one to stick around to the finish and he did well to finish 4th as he was clearly tired when coming to the last fence, and he jumped it like a tired horse. Since then he has been given a wind-op, which should help him with his finishing efforts, which he appeared to be lacking last time out. He has been dropped 2lbs more for that run, and Theo Gillard takes off another 5lbs, so effectively he is running off a mark of 94, which is 36lbs lower than his last win over hurdles.

The Evan Williams horse will attract support from the way he travelled through his race last time, and it appeared that Adam Wedge didn't exactly go fully for the win at Ffos Las, which is something that this yard has been attached to in the last couple of weeks. However, he carries a heavy weight of 12st 1lbs, and looks like he prefers a soft surface, which he shouldn't be getting, so he can be swerved. The rest in this field have questions to be asked, even though they are well handicapped on old pieces of form, but they haven't exactly shown much recently.

Donald McCain sends his only runner of the day on a 8 hours round trip, and to a course which he doesn't send many runners to, but when he does he generally does well at. He has a 27% SR in the last five years at Fakenham, with a 50% SR when running in chases (3/6).

Fakenham 3:30

Betting in bumpers isn't something I'm a big fan of, but the pedigree of the Olly Murphy runner, RIO SILVA catches the eye. Olly is a very good trainer, especially in bumpers, and his form this year is nothing short of spectacular. He is operating at a 21% SR and a 26% SR in bumpers, and even though he sends two for this contest, the booking of Aidan Coleman suggests that Rio Silva is the one to be on.

Rio Silva is related to the classy jumps horse, Valseur Lido, who was a previous 3x Grade 1 winner over fences, and also a previous bumper winner.

Olly Murphy won this race last year with a smart looking horse in Washington, who won this on his bumper debut and has since started his hurdling career off quite well.

Ayr 1:05

BE THE DIFFERENCE was part of a pretty big gamble last time out Wetherby. After showing nothing from his previous runs, he was extremely well supported, and probably would've won with a fair bit in hand if it wasn't for the second horse who continuously impeded him on the run in and before the last couple of jumps, which resulted in a closer growing wings and catching the front two late on. As a result of that run, he has been raised 1lb, and if the money arrives again then you better believe he will be tough to beat.

Ayr 3:53

A second bumper selection of the day, and I can probably guarantee you that this will never happen again. However, I think there is good quality animal with the Crawford runner, CARNFUNNOCK who ran a blinder to finish 3rd in a big prized pot at Punchestown in their spring festival which generally produces some nice types. Since that run he has been acquired by the juggernaut owners Simon Munir & Isaac Souede who must think he is a good prospect for the future.

Stuart Crawford generally does better when he sends his runners to the British side of the Irish sea, than when he runs them in Ireland. His strike rate is much better when he sends his runners across and his bumper strike rate is impressive. In the last five years he has had 16 winners from 72 runners in bumpers, equaling a 22% SR. This year alone he has had 3 winners from 8 runs and his record for bumpers at the track is 5/15 in the last five years. Daryl Jacob takes the ride, as he is the jockey for the owners, but this is a long way to come, so he must really fancy the chances of this horse.

Horse Racing Tips

🔗 Share Your Horse Racing Tips on Social Media