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THISTLECRACK'S back after a lengthy absence and I'm on one of my favourite horses to give me a good start to December.
Christmas is just 24 days away so I'm looking for a lift after a disappointing November.
Newbury 1.50
Adrien Du Pont may be the third favourite of five runners and up against two hotpots but I am not convinced by them. Adrien Du Pont has only had the one chase run but won easily. He was restrained at the back of the field but jumped beautifully. A couple of times he stood off the fences and those jumps looked extremely impressive, he was just shaken up after the last to win on the bridle with any amount to spare.
The favourite Yanworth I wasn’t too impressed with last time when falling and wasn’t a fan when hurdling. Looking at his last run he has the same quirks as when hurdling as he doesn’t give much respect to the obstacles. That fall was a worry as he didn’t hit the fence, his footwork was just not quick enough for landing which is a big concern if he wants to stay chasing. If he can jump well he is the obvious winner but I am not convinced. Second favourite Willoughby Court has a habit of jumping left handed and had a few scares last time so for me the value is with Adrien Du Pont.
Newbury 3.0
Thistlecrack may have been off the track for 307 days but his trainer says he is ready to win. It’s not hard for me to select Thistlecrack as the best bet of the day as he totally dominated the staying hurdle division two seasons ago when winning the Long Distance Hurdle, Long Walk Hurdle, Cleeve Hurdle, World Hurdle and Liverpool Hurdle.
He was then switched to steeplechasing last season where he made an immediate impact, taking the Worcester Novices Chase before beating more experienced horses in the King George VI Chase, On January 28 Thistlecrack started 4-9 favourite for the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham but sustained his first defeat in a steeplechase as he was beaten a short-head by the ill-fated Many Clouds who collapsed and died after the race.
Despite his defeat he maintained his position as favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup but after sustaining a tendon injury in February it was announced the would miss the rest of the season. Although this is just a prep race to get him ready for the Chasing season and although this is a hurdles race he should be up to winning here pretty comfortably.
As I said he dominated the staying hurdling scene and is fit and well, ready to go and ready to win. Thistlecrack's success has been helped by Ruby Walsh. He gets quite a bit of stick for falling at the last in hurdles races but he probably made Thistlecrack the horse he is today. Ruby rode him at Ascot in a novice hurdle and said after the race Thistlecrack just wasn’t getting away from his hurdles so decided to let him jump two or three on his own.
Thistlecrack being the smart horse he is learned from that and the rest is history, it’s worth watching that race from February 2015 to just watch the last jump and how he really got away from it.
Chelmsford City 8.15
Samharry has a long absence to overcome, 498 days to be precise, but his only run to date was a win that has worked out extremely well. He won by 1 1/2 lengths that day beating Total Star now rated 93 and Samharry is off 83 today. This Exceed and Excel gelding out of a Peintre Celebre mare is well bred and if ready to go could take a bit of stopping.
November ended 36.64pts down – well done to any winners on Thursday.
Johnb’s Thursday Tips
- Newbury 1.50
- Adrien Du Pont 15-2 paddy power (0.5pt each way 1/4 odds 1-2)
- Newbury 3.0
- Thistlecrack 11-10 NAP/NB Stan James (double stake)
- Chelmsford City 8.15
- Samharry 5-2 paddy powerAlso 3 x 0.5pt doubles & 1 x 0.5pt treble 15-2, 11-10 & 5-2 Paddy Power
Johnb’s Antepost Tips Update
- 1000 Guineas
- CLEMMIE advised at 25-1
- Now 3-1 best price and as low as 5-2 betway
- The Oaks
- MAGICAL advised at 33-1
- Now 14-1 best price and as low as 8-1 boylesports
Related Topics:
**** RESULTS – NOVEMBER****
Two main banks is Main (NAP/NB) and Overall tips ( Overall > Main is my suggestion if you aiming for pure profit):
Bank 1 – Main tips: + 24.06 pt
Bank 2 – Overall tips: + 93.85 pt
Two other banks is Patent ( from now will be Trixie) and TBT ( tips by tracks, only from tracks with good profits overall). This banks is only for low stake, becous still testing ROI on it, so if anyone bet on it, just go it low. Stat fot this banks is:
Bank 3 – Patent: – 0.62 pt
Bank 4 – TBT: – 20.38 pt
Every 01. in month will post statistic with results of that month, but in daily will continue with bank like i do!
November make nice profit in main banks and this numbers will continu to growe in future$$$
Main tips (repost):
NAP – 2:00 Doncaster – Monbeg River 11/4 2pt
NB – 3:00 Newbury – Thistlecrack 1/1 1pt
Bank (NAP/NB): + 24.06 pt
Trixie:
1:15 Limerick – Sympa Des Flos 5/4
1:20 Newbury – Chef Des Obeaux 2/1
1:40 Southwell – Pearl Nation 4/7
4 x 1pt (4 pt)
Bank (patent): – 0.62 pt
* form tomorrow I will go for trixie ( 4 bets – 3 x dubles and one triples) to reduce stake and easy for statistic!!! Still testing ROI so only low stake!!!
Today very bad with NAP/NB and i hope for nice profit on start of next month. We will see!!!
Good luck tomorrow!!!
$$$
Overall tips – 4/1+ odds – 1pt ( 8/1+ 1pt EW (0.5 x 2)) – day 22 (23 bets – 23 pt):
12:10 Southwell – Katie Gale 4/1
12:30 Doncaster – Welcome Ben 4/1
12:45 Limerick – Glebe Girl (Each Way) 25/1
12:50 Newbury – Exitas (Each Way) 10/1
1:00 Doncaster – Barton Knoll 6/1
1:30 Doncaster – Nightline 13/2
2:10 Southwell – Ubla (Each Way) 8/1
2:15 Limerick Pats – Oscar 7/1
2:25 Newbury – O O Seven 7/1
2:35 Doncaster – Lough Salt 4/1
2:45 Southwell – African Blessing 9/2
3:20 Southwell – Topmeup (Each Way) 10/1
3:35 Newbury – Whataknight (Each Way) 8/1
5:30 Dundalk – Snow Patch 7/1
5:45 Chelmsford – Summer Icon 13/2
6:00 Dundalk – Oneoveryou 6/1
6:15 Chelmsford – Harbour Vision 13/2
7:30 Dundalk – Aunty Audrey 5/1
7:45 Chelmsford – Inuk 5/1
8:00 Dundalk – Poitin (Each Way) 16/1
8:45 Chelmsford – Ode To Glory (Each Way) 14/1
9:00 Dundalk – Weightfordave 9/2
9:15 Chelmsford – Choral Clan 7/1
Bank ( after day 21): + 93.85 pt
Today we have only 2 winner, so we lose 3.5pt from our bank!!! Maybe start of month give us some nice profit, so we just continue…
I will post every time around 6-7 pm when is out and when I sort and set them! Today been busy but i see odds and we dont lose anything, we now get bettar then been on start, so this is tips. All is in early setting bet for long run. If somone is NR I wil try to replace if notice on time.
* If someone dont like this tips just ignore it. They are transparent and statistic will update every day and months!!! Overall tips with pro rating and expirience is making most profit then anything else!$$$
* Raplace NR:
2:35 Doncaster – Askamore Darsi 15/2
TBT ( Tips by tracks)- (repost) – 1bet =1pt ( 8/1+ 0.5pt EW ( 2x 0.5pt)) – start bank 100pt – day 8 ( 15 bets – 15 pt):
Chelmsford ( 1. track for profit):
5:45 – Summer Icon 13/2
6:15 – Harbour Vision 13/2
6:45 – Daybreak 5/2
7:15 – Alba Del Sole 9/4
7:45 – Inuk 5/1
8:15 – Samharry 11/4
8:45 – Ode To Glory (Each Way) 14/1
9:15 – Choral Clan 7/1
Limerick ( 27. track for profit, but have realy nice stats):
12:45 Limerick – Glebe Girl (Each Way) 25/1
1:15 Limerick – Sympa Des Flos 6/4
1:45 Limerick – Fairymount Boy 2/1
2:15 Limerick – Pats Oscar 7/1
2:50 Limerick – Ali Bin Nayef 9/4
3:25 Limerick – Lets Twist Again 13/8
3:55 Limerick – Motown Girl 1/1
Bank (TBT – after day 7): – 20.38 pt
Tomorrow we bet on two tracks with good profit. Today we have 3 winner and lose some bank ( -0.5pt). Still not luck with tracks, but it is only matter of time when it turn to profit.
IMPORTANT – Dont go this bank with high stake per bet, becous i testing it. It will give nice profit for sure, but another 6 month we will go low to see what happen. Start is very bad and probably this is not have consistent profit like Overall tips i post for big play!!! Testing to see if profit tracks will continue to produce more profit then regular Overalls.
Well done all winner today and good luck tommorow!!!
* Replace 2 NR:
7:45 – Swissal 11/4
9:15 – Dangerous Ends 7/2
Police release hard-hitting film after horse and rider deaths – Horse & Hound
http://po.st/q0AjqL
Nap/Nb Jassas 7/2 1.00 Doncaster 5pts
Nov + 1.88pts
Southwell
2.10- Ravenhoe- 9/1
Newbury
12.50- Dusky legend- 11/2
Limerick
2.15 – Pats Oscar- 7/1
1 point singles and 0.25 point trixie
Have you had a look at Dundalk tonight DC? I remember one Friday where you picked four or five winners – happy days!
We roll the JB dice once more…..
Nap/nb- thunder speed 8.00 5/1
Big drift on your JASSAS Allan?are you concerned pal?
Busstop it’s quiet?are you posting my friend?
I reckon he’s been chased by the trolls.
Morning all well done winners yesterday
The lock master 12.10s 28/1
Captain revelation 12.40s 10/1
Oldgrangewood 2.25n 6/1
Vroom 2.45s 12/1
Mimics memory 3.20s 7/1
The organist 3.35n 8/1
Welliesinthewater 5.45c 14/1
Ew singles & ew super Heinz
Gl all
Not going according to plan this week. Hopefully things turn around today
NAP TROPIC THUNDER 9.00 Dundalk
NB AFTER ASPEN 3.25 limerick
NNB CHRIS’S DREAM 12.45 limerick
And a couple of small bets at Newbury
ADIEN DU PONT 1.50
I SHOT THE SHERRIF 3.35
BOL
Master burbridge 2-00 Doncaster NAP 5-2
Used to be my favourite horse until Clydebank’s star man Mark Burbidge (and that’s how you spell the horse) left us for Clyde in the summer.
well done dc cheers good start
Well done DC for NAP. I been on it alredy, becous market mover tell us to go for it and of one more stake on your NAP.
Sangha River D3:10
Master Burbridge D2:00
J Codd over from Ireland on both rides.
are reet theer chaps well done all winners yesterday. birkkensfirth 1.20 only horse from me today cheers
Thanks for Chris’s Dream DC.
To be fair that was a good run from Adrien Du Pont, not a lot in it.
Cheers guys. Hopefully can add to it.
A few for Dundalk later
6.30 Catamaran
7.00 Downdraft
7.30 La Cumparista
8.00 Thunder Speed
Well….
wtf happened there, 2nd last/last?….
Just a question, are the paid tips having success
Thistlecrack now 6-1 for king George.
If he folds after 2.5 miles of hurdling getting weight off harry, what chance he stays the king George potentially in softer conditions.
Clearly that wasn’t the real thistlecrack, but it will take some turnaround to win the king George in just over 3 weeks
10s for King George now that does seem big but youl now have the bounce factor to think about.
Very poor from thistlecrack horses never seam to be the same after an injury that’s another reason to never listen to the trainer said he was spot on for today ! Will be the same tomorrow with conygree there never the same very rare they come back
Hopefully Faugheen bucks that trend and comes back to win champion hurdle.
Sprinter Sacre maybe an exception also, but in the main when a horse breaks that dominant momentum through injury it’s hard to replicate as they have a relatively short career at the top.
Wish I had followed Alan Thomson today on the other thread, 5 tips
Swift cedar 12-10 southwell non runner
Lostintranslation 12-20 Newbury won 9-4
Willoughby court 13-50 Newbury won 15-8
Oldgrangewood 14-25 Newbury won 6-1
Forza milan 15-35 Newbury 2nd 6-1 (done in the last few yards by the organist)
WELL done that man, and those who were lucky enough to follow.
Indeed Mr Parsley.
Credit where credit is due.
always done Alan Thomson’s Tips:
won a few quid since he came on here.
who knows what would of happened if Swift Cedar had ran ?
must not get greedy !!!!
well done all winners today and good luck tonight
Dire absolutely dire.
The pain continues….waiting on yet another horse that even with a win it’s points down….hardly getting excited for that one.
‘Just as I try to get out’ ….you know the rest.
6:00 Dundalk – Aggression @ 9/4
6:30 Dundalk – Catamaran @ 11/8
6:15 Chelmsford – Dance Emperor @ 8/1
7:15 Chelmsford – Midnight Guest @ 6/1
LUCKY 15 ACC EW AND SINGLES
7:30 Dundalk – Koybig @ 2/1
8:00 Dundalk – My Direction @ 4/1
8:45 Chelmsford – Mister Chow @ 7/2
9:15 Chelmsford – Dangerous Ends @ 5/2
LUCKY 15 ACC EW AND SINGLES
that lot looks good dannydan will have dabble BOL
Well done Dannydan! I cash out before last race and get x3 of stake on lucky 15!!! Nice one. And avoind one up, so good profit from you for me tonight.
Overall tips – 4/1+ odds – 1pt ( 8/1+ 1pt EW (0.5 x 2)) – day 23 (23 bets – 23 pt):
12:50 Fairyhouse – Retour En France 6/1
1:20 Newbury – Bouvreuil 6/1
1:25 Fairyhouse – Elusive Ivy (Each Way) 12/1
1:35 Bangor – Global Dream 13/2
1:50 Newbury – Old Guard 7/1
1:55 Fairyhouse – Roseriver Has 15/2
2:20 Doncaster – Just Milly 6/1
2:25 Newbury – Mount Mews 9/2
2:30 Fairyhouse – Icario (Each Way) 8/1
2:45 Newcastle – Silver Bullion (Each Way) 9/1
2:55 Doncaster – Lakefield Rebel 6/1
3:00 Newbury – Whisper (Each Way) 8/1
3:05 Fairyhouse – The Green Lady (Each Way) 20/1
3:15 Bangor – Flobury 11/2
3:20 Newcastle – Boric (Each Way) 12/1
3:35 Newbury – Theinval 6/1
3:45 Bangor – Stylish Moment 9/2
6:45 Wolverhampton – Imperial Red 9/2
7:15 Wolverhampton – Satchville Flyer (Each Way) 12/1
7:45 Wolverhampton – Perfect Cracker (Each Way) 10/1
8:15 Wolverhampton – Favorite Girl 7/1
8:45 Wolverhampton – Cohesion 4/1
9:15 Wolverhampton – Windsorlot (Each Way) 12/1
Will repost latter with bank ( some tip still active). I will post every time around 6-7 pm when is out and when I sort and set them! Today been busy but i see odds and we dont lose anything, we now get bettar then been on start, so this is tips. All is in early setting bet for long run. If somone is NR I wil try to replace if notice on time.
* If someone dont like this tips just ignore it. They are transparent and statistic will update every day and months!!! Overall tips with pro rating and expirience is making most profit then anything else!$$$
TBT ( Tips by tracks)- (repost) – 1bet =1pt ( 8/1+ 0.5pt EW ( 2x 0.5pt)) – start bank 100pt – day 9 ( 12 bets 12pt):
Newcastle ( 3. track for profit):
11:55 – Act Of Valour 11/8
12:30 – Ronn The Conn 3/1
1:05 – Coole Hall 5/2
1:40 – Point The Way 7/2
2:45 – Silver Bullion (Each Way) 9/1
3:20 – Boric (Each Way) 12/1
Bangor ( 13. track for profit, but have realy nice stats):
1:00 – Whitsundays 7/2
1:35 – Global Dream 13/2
2:05 – Pulp Fiction 9/4
2:40 – Marten 7/4
3:15 – Flobury 11/2
3:45 – Stylish Moment 9/2
Tomorrow we bet on two tracks with good profit. I will repost latter with bank becous some tips is still active!!!
IMPORTANT – Dont go this bank with high stake per bet, becous i testing it. It will give nice profit for sure, but another 6 month we will go low to see what happen. Start is very bad and probably this is not have consistent profit like Overall tips i post for big play!!! Testing to see if profit tracks will continue to produce more profit then regular Overalls.
Main tips:
NAP – 1:15 Doncaster – Irish Roe 3/1 2pt
NB – 2:05 Bangor – Whiskey In The Jar 5/4 1pt
Bank (NAP/NB): + 28.56 pt
Trixie:
12:05 Doncaster – Kalashnikov 8/11
12:25 Bangor – Tommy Silver 4/9
12:45 Newbury – Black Corton 6/4
4 x 1pt (4 pt)
Bank (patent): – 4.62 pt
Today we have nice winner in NAP and total bad day for trixie! So maybe more luck tommorow!!!
Good luck tomorrow!!!$$$
* bank is for trixie, no more patent!!!
Johnb’s Saturday Tips
Newbury
3:35
Just Cameron 11/1 NAP betvictor (0.5pt eachway 1/5 odds 1-2-3)
Fairyhouse
3:05
Sanibel Island 12/1 NB coral (0.5pt eachway 1/5 odds 1-2-3-4)
0.5pt eachway double 143/1 betvictor
Another painful day!