Racing tips: Cartmel Specialist Tonto’s Spirit Is Well Handicapped To Retain His Crown

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A busy day of racing today, I've focused on the Cartmel card which looks quite good for a Monday's jumps card and the one flat selection from Redcar.

Cartmel 2:45

 Trainer: Dianne Sayer

Jockey: Conor O'Farrell

Form: 6478-4

I get the feeling CALIOPE is ready to win a race, and it looks like he's been running himself into a bit of form after probably been left a little short in his previous two starts, which should be mean he will be at peak fitness for today's race at a track he seems to run well at.

This C&D winner enjoyed a success at Cartmel in August 2021 off a handicap mark of 100, which is 13lbs higher than today's mark of 87 which means he is extremely well handicapped. His previous four attempts at Cartmel has resulted in results of 3,2,3,1 so this is clearly a track which brings good form out of him. Dianne Sayer, the trainer, does well at this track and targets their meetings during the summer jumps racing. She is at a 21% SR in the last five years, and Conor O'Farrell rides this track better than most with his 19% SR.

His latest run at Sedgefield was a lot tougher than this race, and the way he ran looked like he was in need of that run. He travelled nicely, was a bit outpaced but stayed on again when beaten. The form of that race looks relatively strong for that grade, with the 3rd horse winning since. There are no questions about whether he'll handle the ground or the trip, whereas many in this race will have to answer one or both of those questions.

Cartmel 3:15

 Trainer: David Dennis

Jockey: Brian Hughes

Form: PU54-2

I'm going to take a gamble that FLYING VERSE wasn't fully used to his maximum output last time out five days ago, as they had an eye on today's race. He finished 2nd at Newton-Abbot but was miles behind the winner, who looked well ahead of his mark. He wasn't given a hard time when the race was not winnable, and I think it's strange that they are bringing him here so soon after that race, and it looks like it could've been the plan all along.

David Dennis hasn't sent a runner here in the last five years, so it's interesting they are bringing him up here off a low mark and the booking of Brian Hughes seems significant. Brian has won on him twice in the past before so it appears to me they fancy their chances in this. He is well handicapped on old form, but that form hasn't been seen for a while, so the distance placed 2nd 5 days ago is a little more inspiring that there is potential in him winning races still. He gets in this off a very low weight and although the horses at the top of the weights are in good form, they are giving away a lot of weight. Also, I think Via Dolorosa is better over shorter, and the handicap mark of Coup De Pinceau could be inflated from a recent 100/1 win in a Hunter's chase at Cheltenham, which is different to your normal handicap chases.

Cartmel 3:45

 Trainer: Dianne Sayer

Jockey: Conor O'Farrell

Form: 7433-4

The return to Cartmel for the course legend, TONTO'S SPIRIT who thrives at this track and finds pounds of improvement here than anywhere else, so is always worth a second glance when running at this venue.

He won this race last year, and even though he is a few pounds higher in the handicap this time around, he comes here with a massive chance. He is well handicapped on old pieces of form, including last summer where he won a race off 124, which is 8lbs higher than today's mark. He's had a few outings this year which will have him spot on for his defence of this race. He is probably a little shorter in the market than I was hoping for, but he is well known around this track so the bookies won't be taking any risks on him.

This looks a tough race but the favourite is worth taking on in my opinion. He's got himself a mark of 129 for winning a few egg and spoon races and now we'll really know what he's made out of. Others in the race are good operators such as Sao and Return Ticket, but I think they might need to drop a few more in the handicap before they win again.

Cartmel 4:20

 Trainer: L J Morgan

Jockey: Adam Wedge

Form: P501-P

Another returning horse trying to defend their win in the same race they won last year is FIRE AWAY. His form hasn't been at the same level as last year when winning but he is well handicapped and has to be respected as this would've been the plan for this horse. He arrives to Cartmel on the same mark as winning here 12 months ago, and arrives with a couple of recent runs under his belt which should give him peak fitness in attempt to retain his crown. This does look a trappy contest on paper but I think it will be between Fire Away and Brotherly Company. In my opinion Eritage is carrying too much weight and is making his first start for a new yard, so this will be a fact finding mission for new connections. Manofthemountain ran yesterday so probably won't turn up and Seddon looks in the grips of the handicapper. Brotherly Company arrives in good form but has to defy a career high mark at the age of 10 which will be tough, so the play is on Fire Away who wins this if jumping a clear round and returning to form.

Redcar 3:35

 Trainer: Bryan Smart

Jockey: Graham Lee

Form: 5-2523

This race doesn't look the strongest so the unlucky filly TILLY THE FILLY who met trouble in running at Redcar gets my vote. She's been well found in the market, which is no real surprise as a repeat run with a clear run will make her tough to beat.

Based on the form of last race where she finished ahead of Theoretical, she holds Pam Sly's filly as she was well ahead of Theoretical, who in turn was ahead of Anniversary Belle when they met. Of the other horses, Aish looks interesting but seems to find her best form at Brighton, which is a completely different track to Redcar, so it might be best to wait for that filly to race there before backing. Amor De Mi Vida is on a good handicap mark, and has won when fresh before but carrying 10st 2lbs against an in form horse like Tilly The Filly will be a tough ask.

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