Racing tips: Bottom weight Top Secret looks overpriced at 16/1

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Queen For You was an unfortunate loser yesterday, she didn't break well from the stalls and had to give up a fair amount of ground to those in front when asked for her effort. I think she was beaten fair and square, and was outstayed as she did appear to hit the front at some stage.

Got To Love A Grey put in a very nice front-running performance to kickstart the day. Karl Burke has had many good 2yo's in recent years, and they'll be going to Royal Ascot with a live chance with this one.

Newbury 2:25 – Gaassee 12/1 (0.5pt EW)

You have some high-rated horses in this, none other than Yibir, and on all known form he should run away with this, but there is a chance that he won't be fully revved up for his seasonal reappearance like his stablemate Hurricane Lane who ran at Newbury a couple of weeks ago and was well below par, even though he also had a racecourse gallop like Yibir, so I'll be taking him on.

Gaassee has to improve a fair few pounds if he is to win this but the William Haggas stable has always rated this horse highly and he was the favourite for the Ebor before he was found to be lame and that was the reason for his poor display that day. Prior to that, he had some decent form in handicaps, winning 4 races in total, 2 of those being in handicaps and was 3rd in a competitive Class 2 at Haydock where I think he struggled to show a turn of foot on soft ground as well as being held up from off the pace, so I believe a return to a sounder surface will definitely be an advantage to him today.

William Haggas has won this race twice in the last two years, last year winning it with the same connections of Gassee with Ilaraab who went from being a handicapper to a Group level performer and was also aimed at the Ebor in 2021, going off favourite like Gaassee, where he ran a poor race as well. I think this race would've been the main aim for this horse whereas it might not be the case for many others.

Newbury 3:35 – Mutasaabeq 5/1 (1pt Whill)

I really do like the chances of Mutasaabeq for the Lockinge Stakes Group 1, I think his most recent performance at HQ was very impressive and I believe he is only starting to his peak at the age of 5.

Many will believe his run last time out, although it was impressive, was in his favour as he didn't get contested for the lead, but the manner in which he travelled through the race and then pulled clear of some decent horses in behind, I think that would be harsh to say he wouldn't have won that no matter where he was positioned. If, and that's a big if, he gets a lead at Newbury, a very similar thing could happen and I don't think there's a horse in this race that could go with him if he's anywhere near the level of last time out. Newbury is known for benefiting those at the front of the race, and I think they'll be wanting to do something similar. If Jim doesn't get to the front, hopefully, he'll have him handy and let him use the natural pace he possesses.

Newbury 4:10 – Top Secret 16/1 (1pt EW B365)

To win first time out in a competitive handicap will be a tough ask, but I think the odds are more than fair enough for Top Secret to take that risk that he's ready for this race.

This horse has always been one to keep an eye out for. Martin Dwyer said it would be a matter of time before he'd start to win when they first acquired him from the Clive Cox yard and though it did take a couple of races he did start to win some races. His handicap mark went up and then he was running in some very good handicaps, but during the winter his mark dropped to 77 and that saw him win two on the bounce and he's now back up to 84 which is 2lbs higher than his previous highest winner mark, but the form from those Kempton wins stack up very well.

He beat Notre Belle Bete on his final start of 2022 and that horse has come on leaps and bounds since then, winning on Champions Day at Newcastle and then running well on turf at Newmarket, improving from 92 to 106 rated. The form of Top Secret's first run at Newbury last year was a decent effort too, he finished 2nd to what appeared to be a well-handicapped horse who hasn't run since and he was ahead of Sinjaari who was rated 106 and ran well in races after that including a 5th at Royal Ascot and winning a 51k pot at Sandown.

Top Secret is at the foot of the weights, running off 8st 1lbs with Georgia Dobie's 3lb claim taken into consideration, and I think he has a great EW chance.

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