Racing tips: Back at Newcastle and Tudhope back in the saddle are positives for Raydoun

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It's been a tough few days, with horses not running to form, or bumping into a few better handicapped types. I've decided to avoid the afternoon's jump racing, and focus on the flat at Newcastle. Finger's crossed on some nice runs.

Newcastle 5:30

I'm going be taking a chance on the recent winner, COASE to win with carrying the 5lb penalty. It's not a great surprise to see him turned around so quickly, as he will more than likely go up more than the penalty he is carrying, with his run producing an RPR of 85, you'd expect him to go up to around 82, which would be an 8lb increase. He seems to thrive on racing, and that is proven by the fact he has raced 3x in the last fortnight. If this isn't a race too much, he should run a big race, in a race which isn't full of horses who are in form.

On paper there's a lack of pace in this, which won't suit a far few in this. Daheer, who was a beaten favourite last time out, can often be keen, so the predicted slow pace could be a problem for him. That is also the case for Broken Rifle, who is a tricky sort, shown by his record of 2 wins from 31 runs. He did win a race prior to his last, but that was in a Class 6. He is a player in this race off a low weight, but I wouldn't be too convinced by his uninspiring record.

Franny Norton goes to Newcastle today for the one ride, and he is a jockey in hot form, recording 3 wins from 9 runs in the last 14 days, which has seen a further 4 of his horses being placed.

Newcastle 7:00

Going through this race, I think that a lot of horses in this are slightly too high in the handicap, or won't enjoy how the race is run, or this isn't the ideal distance. So with that being said, I'm playing OSO RAPIDO each way.

I get the feeling that he will drift on the day of racing, as others with slightly better profiles, in terms of numbers next to their name, will be backed in. But when you look into his form, he should be bang there. He hasn't been raced on the All-Weather before November last year, but he seems to handle the conditions perfectly fine. He won at Newcastle on his AW debut, before finishing a respectable 4th the time after, which has produced some decent pieces of form since. On his last start, you can ignore that, as he “ran flat” according to jockey, Jason Hart. Horses aren't machines, so a run that bad can be excused, and he's been given time away from the track to recoup and go again for this flat season. The time away from the track isn't ideal, and it's hard to know what to expect at this time of year with horses making their return, but at the prices I think he is worth chancing.

Going back to the form of his fourth finish, the winner, 5th, 6th and 7th have won since, and the 3rd has ran some good races in defeat. There's a lot of collateral form in this race, with Tommy Taylor, Spartan Fighter & Dutch Decoy to name a few, and I think Oso Rapido lines up well at the current weights against that form.

Newcastle 8:00

A horse who some of you might be familiar with in the last race of the day is RAYDOUN. This horse was the winner of a Newcastle race when Cairnzy tipped up Another Bertie. He was extremely well supported that day (Raydoun), and he obliged by winning in good style. It didn't look likely for the majority of the race, as he was opposed by a wall of horses, and when it looked like Daniel Tudhope had butchered it, he found a gap late on and the horse obliged. Since then, he raced at Southwell where he finished 6/12, which doesn't look amazing on the back of his 4lb rise in the weights, but I'm willing to scratch that. Southwell still isn't a track which horses take to, even though they have a new surface, it seems to still have its quirks and that's why I'm giving him another chance. Back at Newcastle, and Daniel Tudhope back in the saddle, I think another big run could be on the cards. There's been a decent amount of early money for him, which I'm unsure of whether that's the bookies playing it safe, or its money from relevant people, either way 10/3 or similar is still decent odds in my eyes.

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