Racing tips: Arrest will bounce back now on softer ground

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Miaharris was a winner on Friday and I think it's a fair comment to say the horse got Oisin Murphy out of a lot of trouble. She was clearly the best horse in the race, hence why she managed to win, but he found so much trouble in running. 

Ripon 3:15 – Summerghand & Gulliver 11/2 & 16/1 (1pt singles)

The Great St Wilfrid is one of the best handicaps of the years in my opinion, and especially in the northern tracks. It offers great prize money and you will get some good odds for the horses you fancy with there rarely being anything too short to back.

I like a couple in this race and rather than go for two EW plays I'll have two straight win bets. My first fancy is the old boy, Summerghand. He is drawn mid-low and will have a couple of strong pace setters on his side, which is a help in a race which is normally split into two groups. From recent years I don't think there is any bias of draw as there has been a mixture of stands side and far side winners, I think you need a strong pace to aim at which both sides should get in theory. Summerghand is probably better on rattling fast ground, but he handles any ground so the soft ground which I predict won't be an issue. He has become well-handicapped and I thought his recent run was a very good run and a return to form. The form has been franked by the winner who went on to win at Glorious Goodwood by a wide margin and then the runner-up went on to win two races.

My second selection is another David O'Meara runner, Gulliver. This horse is also extremely well handicapped on old pieces of form and I think the return to soft ground will be right up his street. He is drawn high, so I've got both bases covered with the two runners in case one side isn't the place to be on. He hasn't been in the winner's enclosure since October 2020, which doesn't bode well, but his handicap mark has dropped massively as a result. That last win came on soft ground off a mark of 102, and his two career-best RPRs other than his AW form have come on soft, so he clearly appreciates cut in the ground. His form has been poor over the last 12 months, but he hasn't run on soft ground since September when he was 6th/20 in a very competitive Curragh handicap where he was sent off at 15/2, not getting a clear run-through either. He returned to a form in June over today's C&D on very quick ground but was then poor the time after. He gets Mark Winn on board, he takes off a handy 3lbs and I think he is being massively overlooked.

Curragh 4:00 – Dollerina 9/1 (0.5pt EW Bet365)

I think Pearls And Rubbies should be the market favourite in this even though she has been beaten at short prices in her recent races, this is a race Aidan O'Brien has run some of his better fillies in over the years including the likes of Ballydoyle, Rhododendron and Magical. However, his son, Joseph has done well in this race over the last few years and I think his sole runner Dollerina offers a good bit of value.

Joseph won this in 2020 and 2021 with some good juveniles, so it's interesting that he's pitched Dollerina into this race as his sole chance, as he would've had a pick of plenty to chuck in this race. I thought she did well on debut to finish behind an Aidan hot favourite over today's C&D, I thought her most impressive part was the final furlong where the penny dropped and she was starting to power clear of the third. She looks like a strong stayer at the trip, which will be needed on the ground which will turn up to be soft given the rain forecast at the Curragh. She is by Territories, so there's a very good chance she'll handle the ground and potentially improve for it. I think the winner of that maiden will be a very good horse as it's been a race in which Aidan has run some of his Oaks winners, with Snowfall and Tuesday making an appearance over the years. I'll be having a bet on Ylang Ylang who won the maiden that Dollerina won for next year's Epsom Oaks @ 8/1 Antepost.

Normally, this race goes to a filly with plenty of experience with winners winning this on their 4th (3x), 5th (1x), and 6th (1x) races, but I don't think this field looks particularly bulletproof and it might be best siding with the lightly races ones.

Newbury 1:50 – Arrest 15/8 (3pt WilliamHill when advised)

The only way I can see Arrest losing today's race is if Arrest doesn't settle and blows his chances away, other than that I think this could be a procession job.

It's hard to be too confident with a horse on a Saturday, but I think this race is a very poor renewal and the older horses are either regressing or simply aren't good enough. Arrest made a great return to the track at the start of the flat season at Chester when hosing up on very deep ground, he was keen that day but it didn't matter as he had far too much for that field. It turns out that he beat a very good horse into second place that day with the runner-up since finishing 2nd in France in a Group 1. As soon as I saw Arrest run that day I knew he had to be running on soft ground, even though John Gosden was convinced he wouldn't like it. His action screams out soft ground lover and his record also suggests that with his runs on good to firm the next two times being below what was expected.

Newbury is expecting a bit of rain and is already good to soft and soft in places, so that should remain the same or potentially go soft all over, which will be perfect conditions for Arrest. Frankie is on board, and he doesn't get out of bed for bad rides these days, so fingers crossed he can bag another Class 1 success to the plethora he already has.

Newbury 3:35 – Rodaballo 25/1 (0.5pt EW Bet365)

I could be barking up the wrong tree but I think the Spanish raider, Rodaballo is massively overpriced in the Hungerford Stakes.

I will be hoping that the ground remains as it is or gets slightly softer as it's quite clear that Rodaballo needs a slow surface to be seen to best effect. This is a good race and it has the previous winner of the race as well as some of your usual contenders, but if the ground goes how I think it will I think you've got to take the lot of them on.

He has won races in Spain on soft ground, granted the form of those races won't amount to much, but he did get an RPR of 105 for a win and got a 113 for his win at Baden Baden in Germany in a Group 2. He has already had a run in the UK this season which was in a 32k pot handicap at Ascot where he finished 6th/9, but that doesn't tell the full story. He was held up in last place under the usual Jamie Spencer style and travelled strongly into contention but he didn't quite finish off as strong as Jamie anticipated. It looked difficult to come from off the pace in that race, but also it was his first run in over 150 days so chances are that he needed the run. I think it's of notice that they've gone for this race straight after that, almost as if this was the main plan and that was a fitness run. If he gets a strong pace to aim at I think he could easily outrun his huge odds.

Perth 4:30 – Favori De Sivola 6/1 (1pt Bet365)

I backed Favori De Sivola at Exeter for one of the 3m 6f races on the back of a couple of decent efforts but he stunk the place out. On the back of his recent form, he looks very hard to touch, but I think he deserves another chance.

David Pipe has acquired this horse from Jane Williams' yard and to see him send him up from his Somerset base to Perth is something which gives me confidence. David has a 30% SR at this track over the years, so clearly doesn't like wasting his ammunition on travelling a huge distance. The ground will turn soft at Perth with some torrential rain expected in the early hours of Saturday, which on paper would go against Favori De Sivola who has run very badly on similar ground in recent times, but he was a heavy ground winner earlier in his career, so it's not like he doesn't handle the conditions.

This is his first run on the back of a recent wind-op, this being his second wind-op. He was victorious the race after his first wind-op, which is another positive that his wind must've needed tinkering and it might have the same effect the second time around. He is back on his last winning handicap mark of 115 and is running in a Class 4 which is a lower grade than what he was running against when trained by Jane Williams.

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