Racing tips: A return to a right-handed track will make Cellar Vie tough to beat

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Unfortunately the recent storms meant that Navan's Sunday meeting had to be abandoned. Finger's crossed Carlisle remains on for Monday.

Carlisle 3:00

Though it might appear that a drop in trip won't suit FRIMEUR DE LANCRAY, I don't think it will be that much of an issue.

His recent form over fences isn't great by any means, but he has definitely started to appreciate the switch to being a chaser with two good runs in the last three. He finished runner-up to Scoop The Pot at Newcastle, who was set out for that specific race, and was going to be a tough task as he had previously won the same race 12 months before. He then ran a respectable 4th at Wetherby, where it looked like he got outstayed. The RPR for his most recent performance produced a rating of 121, which was 5lb higher than his rating for that race. He runs off the same mark today, but gets a valuable 5lb off from Thomas Willmott, who is a capable rider.

Soft/heavy conditions seem to suit this horse well, with his only win previously coming on heavy ground. That win came over hurdles, but also came over an extended 2m 3f, which goes to show he has the pace to win a race over this distance. He clearly stays further than today's trip, which won't be a disadvantage in today's conditions as it will be a stamina test. Hopefully, Thomas will ride him prominently and make use of his stamina advantage over the rest of the field. Carrying top weight isn't great, which is why the claimer taking the ride is a good idea. Also, he ran well on soft ground whilst carrying 11st 12lbs last time out.

Even though his price at the time of writing is around 9/2, I will be doing him EW, as this race is quite competitive, and I can envisage a drift.

Carlisle 3:35

A shorter price than ideal, but probably for the right reasons, as I think he is still relatively well-handicapped. CELLAR VIE somehow managed to win last time out, after doing a lot of things wrong, which is why I believe a 4lb hike in the weights in rather lenient. He jumped out to the right a lot at Ayr, was very keen in front and probably used up far too much energy, so it was a total surprise to see him battle on once being headed to win. Now he is on a right-handed track, he should be much better suited. I do hope Alan Doyle employs the same tactics as last time, where he ran from the front, but I'd rather see him not go as far ahead as he did lto, as in today's conditions that would be suicide. This is a drop in class from his last race as well.

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