This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
To walk away with profit on Saturday was surprising, but needed. Vandeek is a monster and the way he won yesterday puts him firmly in place for a good chance in the 2000 Guineas. Thunder Ball drifted out to very big odds and managed to grab a place in the Cambridgeshire after trying to make all, the last furlong was tough for him but he managed to cling on.
Longchamp 3:05 – Fantastic Moon 9/1 (0.5pt EW Bet365 4pl)
I'm not going to pretend that Fantastic Moon will win the Arc, but I think he has a decent chance of running very well and potentially causing an upset for the Germans.
Some of you with good memories will recognise this name as I tipped him up against the Godolphin horse when the pair ran at Munich in a Group 1 when William Buick absolutely schooled today's jockey. R Piechulek held him off the pace like he likes to do on this horse but Buick got an easy lead that day and it proved crucial. Since then, Fantastic Moon went to Longchamp over today's trip and won a Group 2 in great style, being held up again and powering home. That performance was very good and recorded an RPR of 121 and the form isn't bad either, as the runner-up who was easily beaten into 2nd place was a previous Group 1 winner the time before, and he also runs in the race today.
I don't think we'll get ridiculous odds on Fantastic Moon due to Torquatto Tasso winning this race a couple of years ago for Germany and then running well in last year's renewal, but I think he is currently at a more than appealing price. The jockey won this race on TT and they came from Stall 12 in that year, so today's stall of 12 will be a very comfortable position to be in as he's been there and done in from that starting point. He's going to hold up Fantastic Moon, so he's going to need gaps to appear and also a strong pace, which I think they might get as there are strong stayers in this race and surely they'd want a decent pace to make it into a real stamina test.
Longchamp 3:50 – Rogue Millennium 8/1 (1pt EW Bet365 4pl)
It pains me not to stay with Blue Rose Cen as she is one of my favourite horses in training, but I don't think the quick ground at Longchamp is going to be ideal for her. Instead, I've gone for Tom Clover's raider, Rogue Millennium.
I actually can't believe how well Rogue Millennium ran on Champions Weekends at Leopardstown three weeks ago where she finished 2nd in a Group 1 behind arguably the best 3yo filly in UK and Ireland, Tahiyra. She travelled powerfully into that race from the rear of the field, and I think if she was positioned more prominently and closer to the winner then she could have potentially won that race. However, based on that performance, the step back up to 10f looks like it could bring out further improvement. She has some decent form at this trip when she finished 2nd to Free Wind at York, the form of those in behind has been franked by every horse in that race with Sea Silk Road being the latest to win a Group 1 yesterday at Longchamp.
There's no denying this is another top tough race, but I think she is more than value at the prices.
Longchamp 5:00 – Shouldvebeenaring 14/1 (0.5pt EW PaddyPower 4pl)
Another EW selection in France for me is Shouldvebeenaring.
I've put this horse up a couple of times over the last 12 months when he was a juvenile and when he has been a 3yo. I've always thought he'd struggle at the top level, but on a couple of occasions this season he has run extremely well at Group 1 and 2 level and I think he has to be respected in this race on decent ground, especially over 7f.
Kinross has been the 7f bully over the last couple of seasons and he is tailor-made for this trip, he has been a superb horse and has landed multiple Group 1s, including in this race last year, but I think he might be vulnerable as though he has been winning, he hasn't been doing it easily. Shouldvebeenaring has always looked like 7f horse to my eyes, he does well over 6f as we saw when he was behind Little Big Bear earlier in the season, but his best part is the final furlongs of the race where he manages to stay on very strongly. The same happened last time out at the Haydock Sprint Group 1 when he finished a very close neck behind the winner, if he had another 50 yards or so he'd have won, so I think today's trip/course and group will be ideal for him. Whether or not he's good enough to take his chance, time will tell.
Longchamp 13.15 – free vet for top 4 places
Native American – 9/1 PP
??
Santa Anita -R10…Hong Kong 9/4 Skybet boost ****
Me Auld mate I’ve deserted but got to be least a place here in this company?
If not yhat’s that with me and HKH
He been beaten favourite 3/4 last runs BUT better races than this by a good bit!
Few good ones in race though so got to be going combo tricast Harry/Twist/Catherine Peak.
Such a late race I missed it (knew it won but ?) Nice watch on the replay there with usual late run from mid pack to fly home in the straight from Hong Kong Harry ?
“Suh a say Suh the Arc day is upon us!” ?
?? ?
Longchamp ??
1-15
Beauviteur 5-2 win SKYBET
1-50
Darnation 3-1 win HILLS
Freville 16-1 ew 4 places HILLS
3-05
Ace impact 11-4 win BETFRED
Simca mille 16-1 BET365 ew extra 8 places.
3-50
blue rose cen 3-1 win BET365
Jannah rose 15-2 ew 4 places BET365 PRICE BOOST
4-25
White lavender 10-1 ew 5 places SKYBET
Makarova 20-1 BET365 ew extra 9 places.
5-00
King gold 12-1 ew 4 places BOYLE SPORTS
Paris
1.15 Beauvatier 9/4
1.50 Darnation 3/1
3.05 Ace Impact 3/1 Bay Bridge 16/1 ew
3.50 Jannah Rose 11/2
4.25 White Lavender 10/1 ew
BOL
We seem to be thinking along the same lines DC, probably the wrong lines but the same lines ?
At least if we go down we go down together ?
15:45 Greyville- the sun dance kid 5/1
not looked at anything, throwaway bet on this @ 4.5/1 and hope to look later. done ok recently, dont let that affect stakes today, woke up and picked them out in 37 seconds.
1415 epsom, pink satin top 4 @ 10/11, 1525 scintilate top 3 4/6, marlay park top 3 8/11
37 seconds ? sometimes that’s the best way to pick selections out going with your gut before giving the market a chance to to talk you out of it
should’ve taken 45 seconds. hannon the king of newcomers i suppose. gg from me fk sundays.
10:50 Hyderabad- DAS – 12/1 e/w
??
Beauviter – 1.15 …Longchamp 2/1
Well if EVERY frog and there dog likes him (an should) I’m on but with Skybet money back offer top 3 finish.
Maybe missing something here but if he’s such a favourite after only beating Evade by 1 Length and they meet again on the same terms weights wise take £5 Ew at 18/1 with Paddy Power and there free bet for top 4 if loses offer.
Prix Marcel Boussac – 1.50…Darnation 11/4
Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe… like the favourite but 2 Ew plays for me ..
Bay Bridge 16/1 Ew
Simca Mille 25/1 Ew.
GL ?? ?
lex Luther 12.20 France
ballymount 1.15 nb
opera singer 1.50 nap
silent approach 2.00 well done all winners yesterday
Mr Hollywood 3.05 ew
see DARNATION been selected by a couple of thread legends. without knowing about the frenchies it is such an obvious bet after the Carla’s Way performance on Friday. ofc AOB fav could be anything but form is so hard to gauge because of how dominated Ireland are by his stable, he is beating stablemates who were probably on the lash the night before. that being said he did win G2 by 6l but when DC has overlooked I think we can too.
i randomly clicked on FREVILLE 14/1 and although only a neck winner in a G3… beating a horse who Opera Singer beat by 8l… the other runners in behind were all undefeated…5th 6th and 7th all 2-2.. granted it wont stack up to Darnations form but needs a mention… and will be my punt/one to make up the tricast without any real digging. trainer won his last two also.
Legends? You flatter us Sir and Datnation right in my tracker on his penultimate win then impressed again so going with my gut that took 36 seconds to decide. ?
Best of luck Mon Frère and to all. ?
guess never count out AOB on the big days in racing, stick to what i know from now on :D
Hello , Its Arc time
Yankee / Each Way
R. 2 – Les Pavots
R. 4 – ARC :: Westover
R. 5 – AL Husn
R. 9 – Behtar
ARC :: Fantastic Moon / To be placed
Bol , all a gread Arc Day !! See ya
Paris longchamp = ???
Old Rizzel would of been kicking himself if dundory won today at odds of 14/1 ? came second so still not a bad e/w bet
blue rose cen just won so, i’m sure he is haha.
Bet he’s having a Jim Carey liar liar moment at home kicking his own ass in the bathroom ?
haha as long as he’s ok for Monday, we don’t want cairnzy back ??
Or beating his cat up ?
it is a good point tho, from the johnb days and alan, they used to tip up horses sometimes too early and it is perhaps a good idea to monitor the horses tipped up by the pros since lots can go wrong.. we see today rizzle was one race early on dundory etc… happens to us all. one criticism of paid tipsters tho is they act like this aint horse racing, they dont notice things until the form is in the book and as such arent worth following if you got ur own nose on the scent.
5:30 long champ – lanaken 15/2 e/w
Bit of stateside action
Race 7 Churchill downs – searcy 5/2 nap
Race 4 gulfstream- llamarada 7/4 nb
Race 5 gulfstream- solair 7/2
Race 3 woodbine- Fitzpatrick 3/1
mentioned it years ago and im not sure of the science behind it and actually think skybet at more accurate than the yanks, but most of these tracks have live free streaming in their own website, it also allows you to cycle back through the stream to see market movements… my point being they have live odds on the screen and u can compare it to the UK prices and perhaps find an edge. in the UK bet365 seem to be slow at updating prices. but im sure some of the smaller firms are playing behind.
Yeah there are other sites like sbg global that give out different odds to what we have over here then you have the problem who’s right and who’s wrong ? but get what your saying they may have not latched onto a fav over here yet and you might be able to get in quick . When up the bookies earlier to refund my voided slip from the abandoned racing glad I did as I just lumped the refunded money on Bresson at 11/2 so paid for the weekends losses ?
9:22 Churchill downs – a lot of spunk ??? classic
??
Santa Anita -R2…Where’s My Ring 3/1 Skybet *****
??
Woodbine -R9…Paramount Prince 3/1 ***
Santa Anita R6…Missed Cut EVS *****
R7…Planaterio 13/2 ****
R8..Will Be 3/1. ***+
GL and well done winners today