Racing tips: 645 days off the track won’t hinder the chances of Regarding Ruth

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Killer Kane put in a mega performance at Kempton yesterday. I was quite worried with the way Brendan Powell was sat on her early into the race as he didn't look confident, but his jumping improved as the race went on and he won with his head in his chest.

I wasn't pleased with the ride of Jonathan England on No Cruise Yet. He let the eventual winner go past him to take the lead and nick 5 or so lengths halfway round the final circuit. He then tried to bridge the gap near the finish, but couldn't manage it. Belting tactical ride on the winner, not so much on my selection. Also, Reilly deserves plenty of credit for his run to finish fourth. He ran a belter off 12st and I think this horse is worth tracking, and I think a big race handicap off a low weight in a better race will see him land a big prize.

Uttoxeter 1:00 – Park Hill Dancer 11/10 (2pt win)

Maiden hurdles are often full of unknowns, horses who are running to just get a handicap mark and you have horses who have shown very little and then find a big jump of improvement and win at big odds. Mine is neither, PARK HILL DANCER showed some solid form when running at Market Rasen over 2m 4f to finish as runner-up behind a smart-looking novice for Kim Bailey, Chianti Classico.

That form is the best form is the race, that's for certain. If this race was over 2m 4f like that race, I'd probably say Park Hill Dancer would be a lump job, but it's over 4f further, which does raise questions. His pedigree suggests he will be better over an intermediate trip like 2m 4f, but I don't think he was stopping at Market Rasen last time around and though he was convincingly beaten by the fav, he was running on well, and with Nicky deciding that he might need further, I put full trust in the master.

I'm typing this up before any official odds are out, but I don't think we'll get a ridiculous amount of value from him, but hopefully around the 13/8 mark would suffice. With the 10lb claimer being used, if he does stay the trip, I find it hard how he loses.

Uttoxeter 2:10 – Tarahumara 7/2 (1pt win)

Backing a horse on chase debut is always a risky approach when betting. If it works you look like a genius, if it doesn't you have egg on your face. However, I mentioned this betting angle a couple of days ago, and that is backing a horse on chase debut as well as their handicap debut. TARAHUMARA fits that bill, and I'm hoping just like Concetto who was a winning tip using this angle, this 7yo can do the business too.

The fact that Emma Lavelle has opted for this race in particular for his chase debut gives me a lot of confidence. They could have easily gone for a midweek meeting at Fontwell or somewhere similar where the competition wouldn't be as strong, but they've gone sack that we're racing him on a Saturday and in a good handicap for the grade. I like that, though it's risky, it just gives you that feeling that they think this horse is better than his current handicap mark and that he is ready to rock'n'roll after 300 days off the track.

3/1 might be on the slim side (early odds) but I can see him being well-supported. He is a homebred horse, so if the money does arrive it would give me plenty more confidence.

Uttoxeter 2:45 – Bangers And Cash 9/2 (1pt win)

I was gutted when BANGERS AND CASH didn't run the other weekend when I stuck him up as my NAP. I honestly felt like he had an immense chance of winning that race, but he was a NR and instead, connections have opted for this race.

I believe he has all the attributes needed to win a race like this. He jumps well, sits prominently and travels like a machine. Life will be getting tougher for him as he moves up the handicap, but at the moment i think he might have something to spare. If you just looked at the form figure of last time out and the winning distance you wouldn't be too impressed, but that was over 3f longer and I do think he got tired towards the end and the horse in second did run on well. This drop in trip will be better for him, as he is such a strong traveller and I think he will be bang there when jumping a few from home.

Naas 3:25 – Dinoblue EVS (2pt win)

I've had a decision to make about how I think this race will pan out between two horses. DINOBLUE was the one I landed on instead of Magic Daze who definitely has a strong chance in this.

For me, Elimay is a horrific price at around 6/4. I don't think she's as good as people think. Yeah, she's won some Grade 2s and similar stuff around that level, but she is very inconsistent and often doesn't show up and her jumping call falls apart. If she wins this, off 11st 5lbs, then fair enough I'll hold my hands up and say I got it wrong, but for me, she'll probably have to put in close to a career-best to win this giving that much weight away to some decent operators in behind.

Magic Daze will more than likely lead them along under Rachael Blackmore. This mare only seems to know one way of racing, and that's freely on the front end. She seems hard to settle, so there's no reason to try and restrain her, let her go and if she has enough left in the tank then she has a chance of winning. However, I think Dinoblue will sit just behind the leader and get a nice tow into the race and pounce late when the leader begins to tire from her early exertions.

Dinoblue has some decent form as a chaser, having finished a good second to Impervious who is a cracking mare, who won a Grade 3 recently for new owner J P McManus. She seems to jump well and I think a quick pace will suit her. She clearly has a good reputation at home as she was the favourite for the mares novice hurdle at Cheltenham last year after only winning one race prior. I think she is a better horse now with the experience under her belt, and I think she could make into a nice chaser.

Newbury 1:50 – Regarding Ruth 6/1 (1pt ew)

If REGARDING RUTH was to win this, it would be an amazing training performance by Lucy Wadham, being after to get her back to form after having 645 days off the track.

On form, you'd have to say this mare has an immense chance of winning today. She stays the trip, loves the track, and loves the ground. She is on a 1lb higher handicap mark than when last seen, where she won easily. That last run was back in 2021, so she's clearly had problems since, but it's of notice that they're coming for this race at a track she likes and putting a 10lb claimer on board, making her ridiculously well handicapped.

The win at this track form March 2021 looks great form. She beat Iwilldoit into second place and that horse has done wonders over fences, including winning the 2022 Welsh National, and then he won the 2023 Warwick Classic Chase and would've been a big player in the Aintree National until he picked up an injury earlier this week.

Lucy is more than capable of getting one ready from an absence, and I am confident on a big run today.

Newbury 2:25 – Zanza 14/1 (0.5pt ew)

I understand that this is a very strange pick in a race of this nature against some well-established horses at Class 1 standard, but hear me out.

I've gone for the biggest outsider of the bunch in ZANZA. I'm fairly certain that this horse has been on one of your betting slips over the years, and I'd probably be confident in saying that if he was, you'd be shredding it into a million pieces as his jumping normally isn't great. He is a horse who has always hinted at having plenty of ability but has often been missing that final piece of the puzzle to connect it all together. However, though he might have a mountain to climb against some very good horses, I think that he could outrun his odds and be an EW player at the very least.

Though his jumping normally lets him down, there's something about Newbury which brings his form to another level and normally improves his jumping. He is 4 from 5 at the course, which is borderline course specialist stats, and the way he won his last chase race here earlier in the season in a competitive handicap was very eye-catching. To see this horse who has been many punter's cliff horse go in and romp home by 12L on the bridle was special to see. Based on that performance I think he warrants a try at this trip and at this level, especially at this track. I can see why connections are going for it as if he's going to win a race like this, it will be this one as it's at Newbury.

I'm not going to say he'll win, but I think a small EW bet at a big price could make for an interesting watch.

Newbury 3:35 – Master Chewy 15/2 (1pt ew 5pl)

In recent years I think you've seen a potential Grade 1 horse win the Betfair Hurdle, but I don't think there is one in this race. Nigel Twiston-Davies has a very good record in this race, winning it 3 times in the last 10 years and I think the bottom weight, MASTER CHEWY, could run a big race.

I tipped up Master Chewy in a Plumpton novice race where he was basically running in a match race against a Gary Moore-trained Noel Fehily-owned horse. He went through the race well but didn't quite outlast his main opponent. Though the RPR figures of that race would suggest he ran below par, I just think he might've bumped into a fairly useful one.

His form from the previous races this season looks decent. He would've won at Ascot if he didn't overjump the last hurdle. The form from his hurdles debut run at Chepstow looks strong, producing winners and the runner-up run at Cheltenham seems a fair enough effort, only touched off by a Nicky Henderson horse who looks to have a bright future.

For his handicap debut to come in a race like this seems like it has been a long-term plan. The handicapper has only given him a mark of 124 and to me, that seems on the low side for a horse who has plenty of ability. I think though he hasn't won a race yet, this kind of setup in a big field handicap where he'll be able to get plenty of cover, more than likely a strong pace to aim at, and on a galloping track like Newbury, we'll see an improved effort from him. With bookies offering 5 places and even 6 places, he is definitely worth an EW play.

Warwick 2:05 – Theatre Glory 11/4 (1pt win)

Love Envoi is the short-priced favourite, and based on what she's achieved in her short career to date you can't really argue with that, but there are questions to be asked today and I think THEATRE GLORY could potentially upset the apple cart.

With the ground expected to remain as good, you'd have to be worried that Love Envoi will enjoy these conditions as well as she does on testing ground, which she has done most of her winning on. She is a lovely mare, has plenty of ability, but good ground might catch her out. If I'm honest, I can see connections not running her, so getting on Theatre Glory before the potential huge rule 4 hits might be another reason to back her. I think Theatre Glory is worth backing against Love Envoi even if she runs, but I do get a sneaky feeling that connections might not risk her on this ground so close to the festival with the Mares' hurdle being the aim for the entire season.

Theatre Glory is a similar type to Marie's Rock. I'm not for one minute suggesting she is as good as Marie's Rock, but she is a horse who can be quite free during her races, but she clearly appreciates a sound surface. I think it's of notice that Nicky Henderson has took this mare down a similar route to the mare I previously mentioned. She contested a Class 3 handicap at Kempton, the race Marie's Rock won a year ago, and she ran a belter when you consider she was taking on the boys, and carrying a monster weight of 12st. She finished third in that race, losing to a handicap blot in Grey Dawning and a Joe Tizzard horse who didn't disgrace himself the other day in a Class 2. Marie's Rock won this race last year, in an easier race it must be said, but I do think this mare has plenty of ability and she is worth a shot against the Harry Fry horse on ground which will suit.

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