Racing tips: 4/1 for a potential Group horse in a handicap is a KORKER of a price

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Red Riding Hood who made her debut for the Aidan O'Brien team at Ascot yesterday was fairly disappointing and I was expecting a lot more. It's always a risk backing an unraced horse, but considering Aidan brought her over with another horse (even worse) I thought they were expecting a big run. She was very immature in how she raced early on. She was quite slow out the gates and Ryan Moore had to keep nagging at her to keep her focused. Eventually, she finished 2nd but it wasn't a great start to her career when you consider the pedigree she has.

Kempton 2:05

It's strange to see Joseph O'Brien send over a runner for this, but it definitely makes this race a lot more interesting. Enable has used this race for a prep run for the Arc on two occasions, though this race looks competitive and a strong Group 3, none of these will be heading to Paris for the biggest European race.

Personally, I think GEAR UP is arguably the most solid runner in this race. He stays the trip and has run with consistency this year. His figures don't match the likes of Dubai Honour and Mostahdaf who have raced against tougher opposition, but they don't quite look bulletproof at this trip. Dubai Honour has never raced over today's trip and his pedigree doesn't exactly suggest he'll appreciate it. Mostahdaf has also looked better over 10f, he has raced over 12f and wasn't disgraced, but I don't think you can say he's improved for the extra 2f.

At the odds, I think Gear Up is a good EW alternative. They could've found a similar race in Ireland so it goes to show how confident connections are that they are bringing him to England.

Haydock 1:45

In my opinion, this is a strong race. At first, I thought you have to take on Reach For The Moon, but as I looked through the form of the other horses I thought he probably just wins. However, the last horse I checked was TRIPLE TIME and though his profile isn't one to fill you with confidence I definitely think he has a good chance of springing a small surprise.

Kevin Ryan's son of Frankel hasn't been seen since September last year, so will have to prove his fitness and his well-being as he must've had a few setbacks. However, if he is fit and ready, he should be competitive in this. He has raced at this track 3x in his career where he has only raced 4x, which includes two wins, with a Class 1 Listed race being the standout which came on his last start. The form from his juvenile runs puts him bang there as he beat Point Lynas by 9.5L, that horse has become a 91-rated horse and he got nowhere near Triple Time when they met. Triple Time also beat Hafit during his Listed win. That horse is now rated 107 and finished 2nd behind Eldar Eldarov in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot. He was convincingly beat by Triple Time by 1.5L, so it goes to show that if he has progressed from 2 to 3, he is more than capable of winning this.

As for the opposition:

• Reach For The Moon – Was beaten by Bayside Boy last season. Has been below par and what was to be expected of him this year. I think he will like this flat track, but might be better over 7f. Short price but is the one to beat.
• Bayside Boy – Been very poor this season, has something to prove.
• Dark Shift – Interesting runner – coming up from handicaps but form is all at Ascot & Nottingham (not great elsewhere)

Rest don't seem good enough…

Haydock 2:55

A lot of trainers are worrying about the weather forecast at Haydock, with most of them hoping not too much rain lands. Looking at the forecast, they reckon only 1.1mm will fall during the night, which shouldn't be enough to make the ground testing, especially with warm weather during the day. However, we all know Haydock and if more rain than forecast does come, the ground could get sloppy.

My selection in the race is hoping that the Merseyside track doesn't get too much rain as his best runs have come on a faster surface. ISLAND BRAVE was a tip of mine during the Shergar Cup meeting where he ran well and tried to win that race for the second time, unfortunately, it wasn't meant to be but he still ran with a great deal of respect and continues to be in good form. Island Brave won this race last year, so connections have been eyeing up a return and I can see why as his handicap mark puts him bang there as he'll be 8lbs lower when Gina Mangan takes off the helpful 5lbs and based on that you'd have to say he has a real chance of winning this back-to-back.

Gina has been in good form over the last fourteen days and is riding with plenty of confidence, so a ride in this prestigious handicap will boost her confidence that Heather Main has given her such a big opportunity on a live chance in this race. I think Island Brave is priced up reasonably and is a good EW price to take advantage of those extended places on offer.

Haydock 4:05

For me, KORKER is a Class 1 animal, it just depends on how badly he breaks from the gates and how much it takes out of him. He has been notorious for breaking slow, most times, especially recently and it immediately puts him on the back foot. However, when it all clicks, he is a horse with significant potential and for that reason, I have to give him a chance. He went off joint-favourite for the Beverley Bullet last weekend where Tis Marvellous won. Like normal, he broke slow, which is very unforgiving at a track like Beverley, and as a result, he was crammed in between a lot of horses and struggled to get the gap needed. He travelled extremely well but just had a wall of horses in front of him. Today, at Haydock, he should hopefully be able to get a clearer run as they normally disperse all over the track, so fingers crossed he breaks well and fingers crossed he gets a clear run, as if he gets both I expect him to be going very close. In my opinion, he is a Class 1 horse in a handicap, so a rating of 103 and carrying a fairly heavy weight isn't anything to worry about.

Ascot 4:55

For me, I think you have to take on the odds-on favourite in this race even though he has the best chance of winning. He is a progressive horse who could have a fair amount left in the tank, but at those odds and the fact Ed Walker has such a good record in this race, I think POPMASTER makes a good alternative.

Popmaster won this race last year and went off as favourite. I think this race is made for him to run another belter and go extremely close. Carrying top weight isn't going to be an easy assignment, but his love for Ascot is there for all to see and I believe he is capable. You can ignore his recent run at Goodwood in the Stewards' Cup as that race is often a nightmare for many who run in it and it's not exactly a true reading of form. However, the run before at Royal Ascot in the Wokingham behind Rohaan is a serious bit of form and a repeat of that will make him extremely tough to beat, even off 9st 12lbs. The form of that race is top-notch, with Jumby (3rd) winning a Class 1 race, Mr Wagyu (4th) winning a 50k handicap at the Curragh, Summerghand (5th) winning a 52k handicap at York, Fresh (9th) winning a 77k handicap at Ascot, the list goes on.

Ryan Moore is booked and you can get around 6/1 with Bet365 at the time of writing, and I make that a cracking EW bet.

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