Racing tips: 3m can bring out further improvement for Tweed Skirt

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Juniper was horrendous on seasonal reappearance, she didn't jump great and went out like a light. Western Zephyr jumped well on chase debut and placed if you backed him on Bet365. Wasdell Dundalk came into the straight on the bridle, but so was the winner and the winner had a bit more staying power than him, but he still managed to place.

With the storm blitzing across the UK over the last couple of days and today there is likely going to be a few meeting called off due to waterlogged tracks. Haydock has already fallen, which isn't a surprise as it's a swamp at that track for 99% of the year.

Fakenham 3:43 – Theonlywayiswessex 3/1 (1pt Bet365)

What a very poor race this is, none of them are guaranteed to enjoy the soft ground but if taking to fences Theonlywayiswessex could be much better than this field.

This is Alan King's sole runner at the track and it's a venue he doesn't tend to send too many horses to, compared to the other southern-based tracks. His record at Fakenham is 10 wins from 35 runners in the last five years, which is a 29% SR and a +9.52 profit to £1 level stakes. This horse was a maiden on his novice season over hurdles, but he finished 2nd on his most recent start in a handicap off today's mark, being touched off by a neck, so clearly he is on a decent enough rating to strike and get a win.

The Sire has produced soft ground horses over fences like Gaelic Warrior and Quilixios to name a couple, so there is optimism that the forecast ground will be fine for Theonlywayiswessex. He has been jumping his hurdles with plenty of accuracy and air so there's definitely improvement to come over the larger obstacles based on that. If he does enjoy the ground it should play into his hands as he seems a strong stayer at 2m, and on bottomless ground it will stretch the stamina of the field.

Fakenham 4:53 – Tweed Skirt 7/2 (1pt Bet365)

This is a decent handicap chase with some unexposed horses making the lineup. Tweed Skirt looks very interesting on her first attempt over 3m and I think this extra distance will suit her.

She is a very good horse on her day, she just didn't quite bridge the gap to Class 1 level against some nice horses last year but prior to that she was making nice headway through the handicap system with two wins in Class 3 company, with the win over Kissesforkatie reading as very good form. She wasn't disgraced when attempting the Class 1 races but she wasn't good enough on the day, she ran a nice race on her last run at Cheltenham in April but I'm not sure the track suited her, but she did finish very strongly up the hill at Cheltenham that day and maybe it was a sign that she needs further.

The soft ground won't be an issue for her, she has won a bumper on soft and has been a winner on good to soft as well. Her jumping is normally very good and accurate and with the recent wind op she has had, I'm expecting a big performance on her 3m debut.

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