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THE obvious starting point is with the winner of the English equivalent, namely Auroras Encore, who attempts to become only the second horse (Red Rum was the other in 1974) to win both races in the same year.
Can he do it? I’m not so sure and that opinion is not formed purely on the back of various stats and trends which suggest it’s unlikely, as I loathe stats and trends to a similar degree as both avocados and those people on trains who are determined to deafen themselves with their own headphones.
Auroras Encore often comes into his own at this time of year and did so once more to score at Aintree, taking advantage of a lenient mark to beat Cappa Bleu by nine lengths.
The 11-year-old finished second in this race last year but, having been put up 11 lb for his National triumph, he is now 5 lb higher than the mark he raced off 12 months ago.
Bearing that in mind, and the relatively swift turnaround from Aintree, we may be best served by ignoring him and focusing on a couple that maybe had their sights set upon other targets but look to gain compensation here.
Rival d’Estruval most certainly fits that bill, with the eight-year-old having been primed for a tilt at the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He would surely have gone close that day but for falling at the second last, contesting the lead with Tofino Bay at the time, and it is quite possible that he may have yet more to offer over fences having had just the five starts.
Whether that fall has left a mark on him is impossible to tell until he takes to the track but, on all known evidence, he really ought to go close to making amends for that incident.
Another that could be worth a second chance is Fill The Power, who found circumstances transpiring against him in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter last month.
The seven-year-old took to fences early this season, winning at Sedgefield in May, and has accrued plenty of experience since, shaping all the while as though an extreme test of stamina would bring out the best in him.
He was finally granted that in the aforementioned Uttoxeter affair but, despite shaping as though he failed to stay, the suspicion is that he simply paid for racing too close to an overly strong pace, weakening as things drew to a conclusion.
I’m prepared to give Fill The Power another role of the dice in the hope that he can confirm the previous impressions created with regards to both his stamina and his suitability for a race of this ilk, particularly with his current price of 34.0 making plenty of appeal.
Others worth considering include both Bradley and Our Mick, with the former likely to have his day in a decent staying chase and the latter likely to stay this far, although his jumping would be a concern.
Godsmejudge is another that merits a few words, particularly as he was carrying my cash at Cheltenham, and were the ground likely to resemble a bog at Ayr he would be difficult to ignore. However, against all of the Scottish stereotypes, the ground is unlikely to be atrocious and Godsmejudge had his lack of pace woefully exposed last month – a similar scenario could unfold once more.
There will be no Encore for Auroras at Ayr, of that I’m not certain but fairly sure, and we are quite happy to side against him with both Rival d’Estruval and Fill The Power.
The former looks certain to go close if none the worse for his Cheltenham tumble while Fill The Power has always struck as the type to do well in this sort of race and is currently trading at appealing odds.
Recommendations
Back Rival d’Estruval 7.8
Back Fill The Power @ 34.0
Milesey (Betfair)
GambleAware
2013 Scottish Grand National Preview & Tips
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With the dust barely settled on Aintree Racourse following a pulsating Grand National that produced a 66/1 winner, attention turns to the formidable Scottish Grand National at Ayr Racecourse. While many racehorses from the Grand National will make the trip to Ayr, the pecking order in the betting has changed with the weights adjusted to reflect the recent results at Aintree.
2013 Scottish Grand National Favourites
1. Rival D’Estruval
Leading the pack at 8/1 is Rival D’Estruval, who missed the Grand National after falling in the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup at Cheltenham in March. Prior to that he’d been on a decent run of form, taking three wins and three 2nd places in his six previous races. He’s fairly highly rated horse, and with 11-00 on board looks like a solid favourite and each-way prospect.
2. Always Right
Always Right missed both Cheltenham 2013 and the Aintree Festival, and instead chalked up a win over 24 furlongs at Kelso Racecourse in March. He’s popular for the Scottish National because he’ll be travelling 2 lbs lighter than he was when he took his win on Scottish turf. He finished 3rd in the Scottish Grand National back in 2011 when carrying 11 stone, but was a faller in the Grand National at Aintree the following season. He’s trading around 10/1, and is another decent option.
3. Rocky Creek
Rocky Creek competed at the Aintree Festival earlier in April, taking 3rd place in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase over 25 furlongs. Prior to that run he’d won three races on the trot, and last finished outside the top three in March of 2012. He’s carrying 11-8 at Ayr, which is more than he’s carried to victory at any other point in his career, and he looks like he may come up short against a talented field.
2013 Scottish Grand National Long Shots
Our Mick is our pick for a long shot. He finished 2nd in the JLT Specialty Chase in a field of 24 over soft ground at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival and barring one race where he unseated his rider, has not finished outside the top three in a race since October of 2011.
He’s finished outside the top three in just 2 of his 9 starts over fences, and shouldn’t have any issue with the 11-2 he’ll have onboard in the Scottish Grand National. Bookies have him at around 12/1 where he offers solid each-way value.
2013 Scottish Grand National Betting Tips
We like the look of Our Mick for the 2013 Scottish National. He’s a quality horse who is in good form, and is in the right age and weight bracket to at least take a place in the race. With this in mind our 2013 Scottish Grand National betting tip is an each-way punt on Our Mick.
Milesey
Grand National hero Auroras Encore heads a field of 26 runners in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr on Saturday…
Sue Smith’s 11-year-old recorded a shock victory in the Aintree spectacular a fortnight ago and, having gone up 11-lb in the weights, he has to carry a huge burden of 11st 12lb this weekend.
The veteran aims to become the first horse since the legendary Red Rum in 1974 to complete the rarely-attempted National double, with Aintree partner Ryan Mania returning from injury in time to take the ride.
Bingley-based Smith has a second runner in the shape of Fill The Power.
Ante-post favourite Rival D’Estruval is in the line-up following his fall when still in contention in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
Other leading contenders include Alan King’s Godsmejudge, David Pipe’s Midlands National winner Big Occasion, the John Wade-trained Always Right and Neptune Equester from the stable of Brian Ellison.
The sole Irish-trained runner is Thomas Gibney’s Lion Na Bearnai, winner of last year’s Irish Grand National but not seen since being pulled up in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury at the start of December.
Conditions at Ayr are described as heavy following substantial rainfall over the last 24 hours.
The two-day fixture kicks off on Friday and acting clerk of the course Harriet Graham feels the ground could dry out again slightly ahead of the big day on Saturday.
Graham said: “We’re raceable today, but the ground is heavy. We’ve had 26 millimetres of rain in the last 24 hours, but it’s dry and windy here at the moment and we’re only forecast another one or two millimetres, so we shouldn’t have any problems.
“We’re hoping the track could dry out before Saturday’s meeting, but I think the best the chase track will be on Saturday is soft.
“The hurdle track is slightly more testing and I think we’ll probably be heavy in places on that track on Saturday, assuming the forecast stays as it is.”
Milesey
SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL 2013: BEST ODDS
Auroras Encore is set to take his chance under top-weight in the Coral Scottish Grand National. The fairytale 66-1 winner of the Grand National was second in last year’s Coral Scottish Grand National. Can Auroras Encore go one better then last season and win the race?
Rival D’Estruval was a faller in his last outing in the John Oaksey National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Prior to that he has not finished outside the top two in six outings. One of which second placing was at the Coral Scottish Grand National meeting at Ayr last year in the Grade 2 Future Champion Novices Chase.
Always Right missed both Cheltenham 2013 and the Aintree Festival, and instead chalked up a win over 24 furlongs at Kelso Racecourse in March. He’s popular for the Scottish National because he’ll be travelling 2 lbs lighter than he was when he took his win on Scottish turf.
Our Mick is a quality horse who is in good form, and is in the right age and weight bracket to at least take a place in the race. He finished 2nd in the JLT Specialty Chase in a field of 24 over soft ground at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival and barring one race where he unseated his rider, has not finished outside the top three in a race since October of 2011.
The nine-year-old Bradley can finally fulfil the promise he showed early in the season. Three good efforts in staminasapping events at Cheltenham showed he was a stayer of real potential.
Nuts N Bolts has triumphed on three of his four starts. He also ran creditably last time at the Cheltenham Festival when sixth in the JLT Speciality Handicap when competing off his highest career handicap mark. Nuts N Bolts was doing his best work late on when running into sixth and he is entitled to improve now he is stepping up in distance and has been lowered 2lb by the handicapper.
Godsmejudge has chance of doing something based on his recent Cheltenham perfomance, coming 3rd in the recent National Hunt Chase over 4 miles. Still a great chance of getting in the frame though.
The sole Irish-trained runner is Thomas Gibney’s Lion Na Bearnai, winner of last year’s Irish Grand National but not seen since being pulled up in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury at the start of December.
Neptune Equester has a couple of wins at Wetherby over hurdles this season and is a previous Aintree finisher.
The prospect of soft ground at Ayr is a boost to Big Occasion’s chances. This horse showed his liking for a real test of stamina when winning the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter last month.
Problema Tic is suited by drier ground and was fourth to Battle Group at Aintree on his latest start. He may have been underestimated at 20/1 in the Scottish Grand National betting, especially as he has been dropped 3lb by the handicapper for finishing fourth at Aintree last time.
Rebeccas Choice ran really well in the Midlands National but is carrying slightly more weight here (albeit over a shorter trip and probably better ground).
Fill The Power had a very busy season with 7 outings since November, 5th in the recent Midlands National suggests he likes a stamina test, but others are fresher and make more appeal.
Rigadin De Beauchene had a great run in Grand National trial at Haydock in February showed what he’s capable of, followed that with a poor run at Sandown with mistakes and eventually pulled up. On his day though, he can be in with a shout here
Monsieur Cadou has only ever fallen once over fences, although he has been run in weak races. He won two of his last three, including a career best at Haydock last month (3m4f, good to soft). He may be the one from a low weight, and the more rain that falls ahead of race, the better his chance of glory.
Relax has never been tested at this trip and pulled up at Cheltenham last outing, had some form in February in a couple of lesser handicaps but nothing to get excited about.
Silver By Nature is a classy 11 year old who was one of the favourites for Grand National 2011 before finishing 12th, unfortunately been out for the best part of 2 years and pulled up on Haydock return in February.
Garleton, Pentiffic, Captain Americo and Cool Operator are the outsiders of the race.
SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL 2013: BEST ODDS
•Rival d’Estruval 7.00
•Big Occasion 9.00
•Godsmejudge 11.00
•Always Right 13.00
•Monsieur Cadou 17.00
•Nuts N Bolts 17.00
•Our Mick 17.00
•Auroras Encore 17.00
•Neptune Equester 21.00
•Bradley 21.00
•Rebeccas Choice 21.00
•Mister Marker 21.00
•Rigadin De Beauchene 21.00
•Knockara Beau 26.00
•Rose Of The Moon 26.00
•Problema Tic 34.00
•Fill The Power 34.00
•Lively Baron 34.00
•Tour Des Champs 34.00
•Relax 34.00
•Lion Na Bearnai 34.00
•Silver By Nature 34.00
•Cool Operator 41.00
•Garleton 41.00
•Captain Americo 51.00
•Pentiffic 51.00
BetVictor are paying out for 5 places on this year’s Scottish Grand National.
Milesey