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2.10 – Right, first leg and we are going to take on short-price favourite Lewisham with … actually no I'm just joking, we're going to do no such thing. Lewisham, currently trading at 1.09, is definitely a banker.
2.40 – the Tom Dascombe-trained Noble Bacchus, who is out of the Irish Oaks-winning mare Vintage Tipple, is expected to step up on the form he showed in a trio of maidens now handicapping and granted a test of stamina. A small amount of early market support is certainly a positive so we are quite happy to side solely with him.
3.10 – the third leg is quite a trappy event as none of the 10 participants make any great appeal. The two that appear to hold the best claims of hitting the places are Flow Chart and Bold Ring, with them both coming into this race in relatively decent form and boasting fairly consistent profiles.
3.40 – Victorian Number's two recent attempts at six furlongs have resulted in an improvement upon her latest form but, such was the impression created when she tasted success at this venue in March, she ought to go well racing from a mark just 4 lb higher despite today's race being staged over a furlong further.
4.10 – World Map is a non-runner, reducing this field to seven and leaving us with just the two places to aim at. A number of the remaining participants look open to further improvement so we will need to take two, namely Thwart and Magique, as we attempt to make it through unscathed.
4.40 – I tried to talk myself into including Red Larkspur as a banker, as the four-year-old has every chance of following-up her win at Lingfield in March were she to turn up in the same form here, but the case to be made isn't quite compelling enough so we shall also stick in Street Power.
The eight-year-old hasn't really fired since scoring at Ascot in July but he has now slipped back down to a workable mark and ought to appreciate the return to six furlongs.
Selections
2.10 – 2
2.40 – 2
3.10 – 1, 2
3.40 – 2
4.10 – 1, 7
4.40 – 1, 3
= 8 lines
Milesey (Betfair)
GambleAware
Tote Betting Guide
For a tiny outlay of £2, the totescoop6 could land you a life-changing sum of money (apologies for sounding like Noel Edmonds) every Saturday. If you select the winners of the 6 designated Scoop6 races, you will win your share of the prize pool. Prize pools of over £1 million are commonplace and if you’re lucky enough to land the main prize, you’ll have the chance of winning even more thanks to the bonus race the following week. In addition, if your 6 selections are placed, you’ll have the compensation of a place dividend. Available every Saturday from 8am.
The totejackpot is like a daily version of the scoop6. Everyday, one meeting is nominated as the jackpot meeting and if you pick the winner of the first 6 races at the meeting, you will win your share of the prize pool – very possibly the whole thing. If there is no winner, the pool gets rolled over to the next day (and then the next and then the next etc. if it’s not won) meaning that for a very small stake, you could win a huge amount of money.
The placepot is a bet that is available at all UK race meetings. Like the jackpot and scoop6, it involves 6 races, but in this case, you need to pick horses that will place rather than win the races. The potential winnings aren’t as big as the above pools, but they can still be quite tasty for a small stake.
The quadpot is a bit like the placepot’s little brother. Whilst the placepot involves selecting horses that will be placed in 6 races, the quadpot is just for 4 races – normally the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th races of a meeting. Again, it is available on all UK meetings and can return some nice returns for a small stake.
This is similar to the ‘Forecast’ in standard betting. If you pick the horses that will finish first and second in the correct order, your bet is a winner. This bet is another one with the potential for a big payout for a small stake.
Milesey
How To Win The tote Placepot
Winning The Placepot
Winning the placepot bet is a great feeling. Not only does the average placepot dividend amount to over £500, and frequently go into the thousands, but the feeling it produces when you ‘have’ it is incredible.
And in that feeling when you ‘have’ it is one of the biggest drawbacks of betting this kind of wager. I’ll explain what I mean in a moment, but for now, let’s quickly recap what the placepot is and how it works.
What is a Placepot?
A placepot is a pool bet operated by the tote, where the player is required to select a placed horse in six consecutive races (usually the first six on the card at any given meeting).
Place positions vary depending on number of runners and type of races, but typically we’re trying to get a horse to finish first, second or third in each of the six races.
As I say, this is a pool bet, which means all of the money wagered is placed into a central betting pool, from which a deduction is made (28%) to cover admin but mostly to put money back into the sport.
The remaining 72% of money in the pool is divided equally between the number of winning players. So, for instance, suppose the pool of money was £100,000, and there were 72 winning tickets.
The dividend (always declared to a £1 unit stake, though players can play multiples of as little as 5p) would be calculated as follows:
£100,000 – 28% /72 (because of the 28% deduction and the fact that we have 72 winners in this example).
In other words, £100,000 – £28,000 / 72 = £72,000 / 72 = £1,000
So the dividend in this case is £1,000. Make sense so far? Good!
Now of course you might only ‘have’ 20p of it, or you might have £12 of it, depending on how you staked your bet.
Alternatively, you might very well have none of it, depending on how you picked horses in your bet!
So that’s what a placepot is: a six leg place wager where you get back a return based on how many of your fellow placepot wagerers also correctly selected six placed horses.
How to pick your horses in a placepot
This is one of two places I think a lot of people make mistakes when betting the placepot. Sometimes people – and I’ve been guilty of this many times myself – try to be too ‘cute’ in their selections.
They might put in the long odds on favourite, and also a 16/1 who they quite like, just in case.
There’s nothing wrong with that per se, but… it is clear that there is far more likelihood of the 2/5 favourite placing than the 16/1 chance. So it must be equally clear that both horses ought to be ‘weighted’ differently in the bet. That people don’t do this is almost certainly THE most common mistake in placepot (and jackpot and scoop6 and exacta and tricast) betting. More on that in a moment.
So, back to how to pick horses for a placepot. Obviously, we’re picking horses that we need to place. This may mean that we actually select horses differently from the one we might pick to win the race.
Many horses have form figures like ’4011816′. In other words, they either win or run nowhere if things don’t go their way. If I was playing a jackpot (I never do, though I love the US Pick 3, a more achievable mini-jackpot), I’d definitely have this horse in the mix.
But in a placepot, I’d think twice, because he’s as likely to finish nowhere as he is to place, and there may be more reliable place wagers.
A good example of this is in the 1.15 race at Cheltenham today (12th November 2010), where Theatrical Moment has form figures of 44116P-
He has two wins to his name, but they were sandwiched in between a number of unplaced performances. (Clearly, there is a lot more to the selection process than that, but these horses take an inappropriate amount of the pool money quite frequently).
The other problem with contrarian views – or trying to beat the odds on favourite out of the frame – is that generally you’ll be wrong. But you don’t want to miss out on the relatively rare occasions that you’re right! So, what to do?
Well, Steven Crist in his excellent book ‘Exotic Betting’, has a solution to this problem. [Exotic bets are what these type of wagers are referred to in the US, and they take FAR more of the money bet than straight win, and place bets.]
Crist suggests you break the horses down in each race, according to how likely you think they are to get the required placing. He talks of dividing them into four categories:
A – horses you feel have a very high chance of being placed
B – horses you feel have a reasonable chance of being placed, and who represent value (i.e. who might be ‘dark’ horses)
C – horses who might just enjoy a revival today based on some element (course, distance, going, jockey, etc) coming in its favour, and who represent value (i.e. who might be ‘dark’ horses)
X – horses who either have no chance, or are terrible value to place at their expected odds, or on whom you have no strong opinion
As you can see, these gradings take into account two elements: your ability to read a race (reflected in terms of what you like) and the market’s relative ability to read a race (reflected in terms of where you see value horses, or under-priced horses)
Milesey
When I have very little time to study form I usually abide by this simple system.
The following rules for trying to crack the ‘Placepot’ are as follows:
1. Look at SP forecasts on the Racing Post website,
2. The two races with the shortest priced favourites are your races with one pick (i.e. banker races),
3. The two races with the biggest number of runners take the first 3 in the betting as your picks,
4. The remaining two races use the first 2 in the betting forecast,
5. 1x1x2x2x3x3= 36 lines.
This is a non scientific way but does come up trumps frequently.
Also to help with coming to a decision and possibly narrowing down the number of lines bet you can also look at the tipsters box in the Racing Post for your chosen meeting.
1. Use each horse that has been tipped 4 times or more in each race.
2. If two horses are tipped 4 times or more use both horses for that race.
3. If the twelve tipsters are split and three horses are tipped 4 times each use all 3 (but this is as rare as hen’s teeth!).
5. If in any race no horses are tipped 4 times drop the criteria to 3 tips.
Milesey
Milesey – how often do you do a placepot?..roughly how many times say in a year would it be successful? would you normally do 8 or 16, 32 selections??
Depends how many places are available in the race, how many runners etc….. so no set number of lines. I do a placepot everyday and i also do the jackpot, it’s just for some interest throughout the day.
Milesey
I put it on for some interest. Lewisham – good start..my new Kabbaas?? 1/20 shot..stuck 50p e/w on him as well :-) ;-) whers my pal Kabbass gone anyway. Head oot on bike for a bit now/day off today…be 3/4 of the way there to picking my placepot winnings up by time I return :-)
Danny I’m surprised u canna read Russian?..seriously?…some nights on here after a good swally you type in Russian (I thought it was anyway hahaha ;-) ;-) hows the back now?
Paul/Milesey/Sean/Danny – you boys partaking in the 5 x 50 challenge??…aimed at getting folk of there arses an signing up to do 5k of walking/cycling/running what u choose every day for 50 days (piss easy on a bike Id suggest..10/15 minute job) The wife was right into it there for 3/4 weeks…however tweekend excesses in Coopers bar in GWR and Waxy O’Connors have appeared to temper her enthusiasm for the challenge!! hahaha :-)
lol Guido am not huge fan of any necessary movements but a stoat up and down that warehouse a few times a day that’s about half a k each way and now that its coming into winter the weather will be just right to take my yorkie a stoat in the 4000 hectare park across from the new gaff so its pretty much covered
Guido, I walk at least 5k a day with the dug and obviously more when I go golfing. Quite often drive more than 5k a day if that counts.
I’ve checked the rules Mr F and, as suspected, driving miles do not count towards the challenge :-)
lol the most a have ever stretched to was a bit of French and Spanish not that I remember any of it now wont be in Europe for a while so am awright on that front. its not as good as expected few niggles again today so will see what the quack makes of it on Thursday when I go for a clearance for unrestricted duties
14:10 Kempton Park
1st 2. Lewisham 1.05
2nd 4. Nepalese Pearl 21. 85
14:40 Kempton Park
1st 1. Miss Tiger Lily 5.94
2nd 6. Conversing 8.84
3rd 8.
Milesey
French wiz a pure waste of time in school… loking at Grasshoppers (aaaaaaaahhhhhh Grassshopppppppper)!!awy to Young Boys today beaten them twice scored 3 A 0 this sesonj…still in with a chance of the overtaking Basel in league 7/4….
Guido, just had a look at the Racing Post to see if anything stands out that I can replace Bordeaux with my Super Single. They do have a piece on the Grasshoppers game but tip draw. They also back Zalgiris at Atlantas. Both pretty tight games to be honest.
Aye I think so Paul..wiz just in Hills shop a wee while ago..Bohemians cut to 5/4 in shop (so guess someone fanvies them?) but still 8/5 online ans Wigan Evs in shop but 5/6 online. Have invested in another driver – second hand Mizuno 630 reg 10.5 deg ….give it a bash. got it off golfbidder so if ya dont like it they’ll take em back. Ya get decent deals and not very much wrong with them/normal scuffs etc. New drivers are a hellava price
Guido, got my new driver last years and happy with it at the moment. Right, off to work. Don’t know whether to walk or drive.
Bohemians awy to UCD tonight?? Sean?? Bohemians have done OK last 3 matches/picking up 8/5!
At a push id side with a narrow Boh’s win guido but its a game ive avoided as neither fill me with confidence,they scored away to Drogheda and st pats so should find the net at ucd and the fact that ucd have a poor scoring record only 3 goals in 5 homes should point to an away win,decent price so why not,best o’ luck if you place it.
Placepots are my favourite horsey bet. Still in the running at Kempton today- took these numbers but its only 16 bets at 20p so no retiring on any proceeds.
2
1-2
1-4
3-5
1-2
6
stupid question i know but i presume you get nowt if one of your selections isnt placed but the other 5 won or were placed???
Tom mc, I’m afraid that’s right.
GUIDO…………………..
8th MAY 2013
KABBAAS @ 3/1
8:40 KEMPTON
Milesey
( betfair )
Thanks Milesey…is he in with a shout?
KABBAAS – (Kempton, 20:40)
Race: 200 Free Bets At Betdaq Classified Stakes
Won 7f Southwell maiden by wide margin, and matched that when pipped in handicap over smae C&D later in February. Still unexposed, and one to consider, particularly if strong in betting.
Milesey