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4.55 – Although there are five runners at present, giving us with two places to aim at, there has to be a distinct possibility that one will come out, ensuring we require the winner. Bearing that in mind we may be best to take an ultra-safe approach and include three, namely Mr Knightley, Hurricane Spirit and Officer In Command, and move on relatively secure in the knowledge we ought to progress.
5.30 – Greek Islands has shaped well in defeat on his last two starts but his profile suggests he is not one to trust implicitly, so we will instead side with handicap debutant Deal Me In. The four-year-old, trained by Ian Williams, has improved with each start and strikes as being the type to really show what he is made of now he steps out of maidens. An opening mark of 60 doesn’t seem excessive and he ought to go close.
6.00 – Hill Of Dreams has just a maiden win to her name and she is prone to running the odd stinker, but she has reacted well to the fitting of blinkers on her last two outings and there is every chance that her losing run can come to an end here.
6.30 – Jacobella is an interesting runner now stepping up in trip but preference is for the Richard Hannon-trained Beat Of The Drum, who is likely to prove capable of better this term. The three-year-old was relatively unfancied on debut but showed plenty of promise to finish sixth, she was probably unsuited by the softer ground encountered at Nottingham next time but a winter break could have done her the world of good, and it would be no surprise were she to improve now.
7.0 – Net Whizz, Rockalong and Sword In Hand are all fairly unexposed and likely to prove capable of better. O that trio the one we want on side is Sword In Hand, who scored over C&D in September and finished a good second at Newbury the following month. We’re also going to include one with a bit more experience, namely Flamborough Breeze, who has been in excellent form of late and remains of interest despite going up 3 lb after finishing second on her latest outing.
7.30 – Homeric has a progressive profile and Tadabeer has improved on his last couple of starts, so they have to be respected, but I’m fairly certain Icebuster will win this. He shaped better than the result would suggest on numerous occasions last term and should probably have won on his return last week, being unsuited by the steady pace. He races off the same mark here and it would come as a surprise were he not to go very close.
Selections
4.55 – 2, 4, 5
5.30 – 1
6.0 – 6
6.30 – 1
7.0 – 10, 11
7.30 – 10
= 6 lines
Milesey
GambleAware
MARKET MOVERS
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Kempton
16:55
Officer In Command 3.66 in to 2.8
17:30
Rezawaan 8.05 in to 3.75
Greek Islands 3.28 out to 4.9
Warbond 9.19 in to 5.3
Chandrayaan 13.13 in to 7.2
Signora Frasi 7.53 out to 12.5
Rapid Water 8.58 out to 18.0
Putin 13.56 out to 26.0
18:00
Charles Tyrwhitt 5.66 in to 4.6
Bitaphon 9.16 in to 6.8
Maz 4.66 out to 7.2
18:30
Jacobella 7.4 in to 4.4
Lady Who 6.2 out to 8.4
19:00
Net Whizz 3.0 in to 2.58
Rockalong 4.5 out to 7.0
Flamborough Breeze 14.5 in to 10.0
Savannah Days 32.0 in to 16.0
Dubawi Island 32.0 in to 19.0
19:30
Ruscello 9.8 in to 5.3
Niceofyoutotellme 9.8 in to 7.6
Homeric 5.0 out to 7.2
20:00
Cozy Tiger 5.2 in to 3.85
Llamadas 5.8 out to 8.2
Native Colony 13.5 in to 9.6
20:30
Amosite 3.59 out to 5.8
Shaunas Spirit 14.5 in to 8.8
Milesey
NON RUNNERS
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Kempton Park
16:55 4 Hurricane Spirit
17:30 1 Deal Me In
18:00 5 The Noble Ord
18:30 9 Mrs Mann
19:00 8 Break Rank
20:30 5 Perfect Ch’i 8 Conas Ata Tu
Milesey
Selections
4.55 – 2, 4, 5
5.30 – 1
6.0 – 6
6.30 – 1
7.0 – 10, 11
7.30 – 10
= 6 lines
Result
4.55 5, 2
Milesey
5.30 2, 3,
Number 1 a non runner.
Milesey
6.00 6, 3
Milesey
Selections
4.55 – 2, 4, 5
5.30 – 1
6.0 – 6
6.30 – 1
7.0 – 10, 11
7.30 – 10
= 6 lines
4.55 5, 2, number 4 non runner
5.30 2, 3 number 1 non runner
6.00 6, 3
Milesey
Milesey, looking good.
Selections
4.55 – 2, 4, 5
5.30 – 1
6.0 – 6
6.30 – 1
7.0 – 10, 11
7.30 – 10
= 6 lines
4.55 5, 2, number 4 non runner
5.30 2, 3 number 1 non runner
6.00 6, 3
6.30 1, 10
Milesey
Selections
4.55 – 2, 4, 5
5.30 – 1
6.0 – 6
6.30 – 1
7.0 – 10, 11
7.30 – 10
= 6 lines
4.55 5, 2, number 4 non runner
5.30 2, 3 number 1 non runner
6.00 6, 3
6.30 1, 10
7.00 6, 3, 7
7.30 8, 10
Milesey
IPL CRICKET
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Delhi Daredevils v Hyderabad Sunrisers
Start time: 15.30BST
TV: live on ITV4
Delhi
The Daredevils were one of the most fancied sides after topping the points section last term but they have been horrendous so far, continuing the form which saw them slip away sorrily in the knockouts. Three defeats from three is not the start anyone expected and Jeremy Snape, the esteemed performance coach, must be baffled how a side which is bursting with talent can be so insipid. Lasith Malinga made his first match in defeat by Mumbai. But he was of little use. The Indians racked up a massive 209. Virender Sehwag looks likely to recover from an ankle niggle.
Hyderabad Sunrisers
The sun does not look like setting yet on the new franchise’s ambitions. One of the rags of the tournament have looked rich in ability and camaraderie. With two wins from three outings they are nicely cosseted in the top four, making a mockery of the Daredevils’ bigger wage packets at the foot of the section. Thisara Perrera, the Sri Lanka beefcake, is biffing it at a strike rate of more than 150 and Dale Steyn was awesome in the Super Over against Bangalore.
Innings runs
The Feroz Shah Kotla is not the most reliable of batting tracks according to gossip and rumour. But that is an unfair reputation when you look at the stats. The first-innings scores for last season read: 110-157-192-207-152-153-136-215. There are some big numbers there contributing to an average of 166. Indeed, Rajasthan made 165 batting first in the one game in Delhi so far. It would make sense therefore to go more than 160 for the side batting first for this one. You should be able to get around even money.
Match odds
It is difficult to imagine that Delhi, boasting Mahela Jaywardene, Virender Sehwag and David Warner can lose four in a row. It is difficult to imagine any side losing four in a row in such a short format with game-changers in their midst. But we sure as hell aren’t backing Delhi at prices as low as 1.66. We would rather chew off our own hand than have it hovering over the ‘back’ button. Hyderabad are 2.34. It is a no-brainer to plump for a back-to-lay at such odds. Given Delhi’s form we can be confident the Sunrisers can have a spell of dominance enabling us to get out at sub 2.00.
Top Delhi runscorer
Jayawardene-Warner-Sehwag is a mouth-watering front three and we are spoilt for choice rather if they line-up together. Jayawardene has actually looked pretty classy, Warner has a 50 last time but if Sehwag is fit he could return with a bang. If we can get 4.00 he might be worth following.
Top Hyderabad runscorer
Perera is Hyderabad’s top runscorer so far and will be available at chunky prices. Otherwise expect Kumar Sangakkara and Shikkar Dhawn to attract most cash.
Recommended bet
More than 160 first-innings runs at 2.00
Milesey
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Arsenal 1.26 v Norwich 14.5: The Draw 6.8
A fortnight on from being priced at 1.26 to beat Reading on home soil, Arsenal are the same price to defeat Norwich at the Emirates as their preferable list of remaining fixtures becomes increasingly apparent.
Arsene Wenger’s men are unbeaten in four Barclays Premier League home meetings with the Canaries (W2 D2), averaging four goals per game over the last three.
Only league leaders Manchester United have taken as many points from their last six Premier League games as Arsenal (both 15), while Norwich City are without a win in seven away league games (D2 L5). So the short odds on a home win are justifiable and not worth taking on.
Considering Arsenal’s scoring record in this fixture and that the Emirates has seen more goals (59) than any other Premier League ground this term, betting on Over in the goals markets is the way forward.
Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.42
Aston Villa 2.32 v Fulham 3.5; The Draw 3.45
Amazingly, Fulham have never won a Barclays Premier League game at Villa Park, mustering just four points from 33 available at the West Midlands venue. And given that the Villans come into this game on the back of three wins from their last four there’s plenty of reason to back the hosts at 2.32.
Fulham, however, are also in good form. But for that last-gasp winner from Papiss Cisse at St James’ Park last week they’d be unbeaten in six and, regardless, have won three of their last five.
Instead of looking at the Match Odds I’d suggest a play on Over/Under 2.5 goals. The Cottagers have scored just five times in their 11 league visits to Villa Park and failed to score in three of their last four.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.92
Everton 1.45 v QPR 8.4; The Draw 5.0
Harry Redknapp billed last week’s game against Wigan as a must-win for his side. Given that they didn’t go on to pick up three points the conclusion must be that even those within the club now realise that they will be playing Championship football next season.
Everton, on the other hand, still have plenty to play for after taking a point from their game with Spurs last weekend, but welcome the Rs having won only won two of their 11 previous Barclays Premier League meetings.
The R’s have scored 24 times in these 11 games against Everton; against no other side have they scored more than 17 in the Premier League. While Kevin Mirallas has netted in three of his last four league games and Loic Remy has scored in four of his last five Premier League appearances. The statistics suggest that goals are on the agenda.
Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.8
Reading 7.6 v Liverpool 1.5; The Draw 4.8
Like Rangers, Reading’s Premier League fate was all but confirmed last weekend, when losing 2-0 at home to Southampton. The Royals have now lost seven successive Premier League games, just one short of their top-flight record of eight straight defeats.
Add into the mix the Opta stat that Liverpool have won four of their previous five league meetings with the Royals and it’s difficult to see Reading not equalling that unwanted record.
In nine previous clashes with the Reds in all competitions, Reading have never managed a clean sheet, while Nigel Adkins’ inherited side have the worst defensive record in the top flight.
Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.62
Southampton 1.92 v West Ham 4.4; The Draw 3.8
West Ham are the only Premier League team to have lost every game they have fallen behind in (10 matches) away from home in 2012-13, so the first rule for betting on this game is that if Saints score first get on them In-Play.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side have won their last three Premier League games with Jay Rodriguez scoring in each of them. The first time in his career that he has scored in three successive top-flight games in his career.
Best Bet: Back Soton/Soton @ 3.3 in HT/FT
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GOALSCORER GAMBLE
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Aston Villa v Fulham (Saturday, 15:00)
Christian Benteke has scored in four successive Premier League games and in eight of his last 10 (nine goals in total)
Where would Aston Villa be without their Belgian goal machine? The answer; bottom by four points. Mercifully for the Villa faithful, that is a scenario that they do not have to contemplate, for the rest of this season at least anyway. The combination of Benteke’s sizeable frame and deft close control makes him a constant menace to opposition defences and, in this devastating form, he’s the key to Villa survival.
Recommended Bet: Back Christian Benteke to score @ 2.7
Everton v QPR (Saturday, 15:00)
Kevin Mirallas has netted in three of his last four league games
Another club who have done extremely well to land one of this golden generation of Belgian footballers is Everton. Like his compatriot Benteke at Villa Park, Mirallas has shown a real eye for goal since moving to Goodison Park from Olympiakos, and he’s also blessed with pace to burn. With nifty footwork comparable to his fellow countryman Eden Hazard, Mirallas has the whole package, but for half the price.
Recommended Bet: Back Kevin Mirallas to score @ 2.6
Southampton v West Ham (Saturday, 15:00)
Jay Rodriguez has scored in three successive top-flight appearances for the first time in his career
Some players flourish under certain managers and one of Mauricio Pochettino’s great success stories in his short reign to date has to be Jay Rodriguez. After Southampton paid £6 million for the Burnley trainee last summer, much was expected in his debut season. However, not until Pochettino’s arrival did he really start to perform at the level we are seeing now. He looks like scoring every game at present.
Best Bet: Back Jay Rodriguez to score @ 2.88
Chelsea v Manchester City (Sunday, 16:00, ITV)
Carlos Tevez has scored five goals in four FA Cup matches this season, including a hat-trick against Barnsley
Cometh the FA Cup, cometh Carlos Tevez. It may have been his compatriot picking up all the plaudits from Monday’s Manchester derby victory, however, Roberto Mancini will do well to consider Tevez’s FA Cup record this season. He’s also by far the most in-form striker in Mancini’s squad right now, having bagged seven from as many appearances in the lead up to this semi-final clash with Chelsea.
Recommended Bet: Back Carlos Tevez to score @ 3.0
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Chelsea v Man City
Back Man City @ 2.4 (7/5)
Back Man City to win 1-0 @ 8.0 (7/1)
It’s the FA Cup now as Chelsea battle Man City at Wembley Stadium, live on ITV1 at 16:00 this Sunday. City are the favourites to win this one and I’m inclined to agree as Chelsea are in the midst of a fixture pile up that will hurt their chances.
Man City need to win the FA Cup to save their season. While it won’t be a successful campaign even if they do lift the trophy, it could well keep Roberto Mancini in his job for another year. They haven’t been firing on all cylinders this term but they did win at Old Trafford on Monday – their sixth victory from seven fixtures.
Sergio Aguero scored the winner against United and I’d expect him to be restored to the starting line up on Sunday. The Argentine hasn’t lived up to the dizzy heights of last season but he has still netted 14 times, despite being plagued with niggling injuries.
Vincent Kompany is another man back to fitness and his presence strengthens the City backline considerably. Even though he’s only started 22 of their 31 league games, the defending champions still have the best defensive record in the division with just 27 conceded.
Chelsea have won their last three matches but they have to travel to Russia on Thursday night for a Europa League second leg clash against Ruben Kazan. The Blues hold a 3-1 advantage going into the game but Benitez will have to field a pretty strong team if he wants to progress and it is highly likely that the European competition will take precedence over the FA Cup in Rafa’s mind.
Demba Ba has seemingly won his fitness race for the match on Sunday so he will almost certainly lead the line. He hasn’t managed to repeat his Newcastle form though and while he has scored five in 16, two of those came at the start of January in a 5-1 hammering of Southampton.
Ashley Cole, Gary Cahill and Ryan Bertrand are also injury concerns and while I respect Rafa’s ability to rotate his squad to the best of its ability, I think the Man City game could be a bridge too far.
Manchester City are a fantastic price at 2.4 (7/5) to get the job done in 90 minutes and given the return of Kompany to the back four, I’d also suggest backing them to win 1-0 at 8.0 (7/1)
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Milesey