After three seconds in a row during the weekend, it was nice to walk away with a winner.
Belgravian was given a confident ride by Jason Watson. I wasn't sure about it, but he knew he had a very well handicapped horse underneath him, despite the market drift.
Lorna B finished in second place. She has been such a straightforward horse, so to see her pull the arms of the jockey was a surprise and also a massive annoyance.
Arabian Poet 11/4 (2pt) – Kempton 4.52
I had this race between the two at the top of the weights. I have previously tipped up Princess Rascal when she won for us at Salisbury. I think she is a talented filly, but she is quirky. My fancy for this race is Arabian Poet, and even though he hasn't set the world alight on his three starts to date, I think he has the potential to win a race of this nature.
Charlie Appleby is having a much better season than I originally thought. He is operating at a higher strike rate than he has averaged in the last five seasons. His runners, especially on the all-weather, always have to be respected. His strike rate when coming to the artificial surface tracks is very good. His sole runner on Monday has an amazing pedigree. He is by Dubawi and out of a mare who has produced the likes of Mogul and Japan, as well as a couple of other Class 1 horses. Charlie normally does very well when he decides to geld his younger horses, as they often improve tens of pounds over the course of the season.
Arabian Poet is still very lightly raced, and this is his handicap debut off a mark of 81. Last time out was his career best performance, and I don't think the way the race was run suited him at all. The front-runner that day was very tactical and got to dictate the race on his terms. The Godolphin horse still shaped well on the back of his 274-day break to finish second. I think that form, despite it being a muddling race, is the best on offer as the horses either side of him look decent.
I think we'll get much better value on him today because William Buick isn't on board. Dougie Costello takes the ride, and he has a solid enough strike rate of 23% from his 77 rides for the yard, producing a profit of +12.67 to £1 level stakes.
Bishop's Crown 10/1 (0.5pt EW, 4pl) – Windsor 7.10
The big race on Monday comes at Windsor in the shape of the sprint series final handicap, which is a Class 2 over six furlongs.
As you can imagine, with the prize pot being £38k to the winner, it's ultra-competitive. You can give a chance to any of the horses turning up, but at the bottom of the weights, Bishop's Crown caught my attention.
There is a strong possibility that he could be outclassed in the Class 2 race. However, he is a very consistent horse and runs to form more often than not. Whilst he has been running to form, his handicap mark has been falling slowly. He is now running off a handicap mark of 78, but Oliver Carmichael is on board and takes off 7lbs. That means he is effectively running off a handicap mark of 71, which makes him dangerous to overlook.
Charles Bishop is the main jockey for Eve Johnson-Houghton, but he hasn't made this racing weight in a long time, so I wouldn't read too much into him riding the other stable horse.
Bishop's Crown seems to relish a good gallop, and that looks to be a certainty with plenty of front-runners. Not only that, but Windsor is a track which favours those who race from the front near the rail. The strong pace will suit, but being drawn in stall 2 is my main concern as getting the gaps at the right time might be a problem. But, he is very big odds, and is worth a chance.
GambleAware