Bedtime Story was given a conservative ride in the French Oaks, but didn't stay strong enough to get the victory.
There was a high chance that the other O'Brien horse was the pacesetter for Bedtime Story. Ryan Moore decided to settle his mount in last place, which didn't seem too bad in hindsight. She was given every chance to pick up and win her race, but she didn't have enough in the tank a the end.
Hotheaded was given an odd ride. The horse was very slow from the gates, rousted along early and then rushed up in the middle of the race. He was in a good spot turning for home, but he was lacking the tactical speed to compete. He was outpaced and fell back quickly, but then stayed on against the finish. Maybe a step up in trip is what he requires.
Distinction 7/2 (1pt) – Carlisle 5.25
With Royal Ascot being literally around the corner, parting ways with too much cash wouldn't be the smart option. So, it's just the one fancy on Monday for me. This is perfectly fine, as this was the only horse that appealed to me.
P J McDonald is a freelance jockey these days and doesn't get the amount of rides he used to. That doesn't mean he isn't capable of riding winners, as he is having a productive season so far. In the last fortnight, he has accumulated seven wins, at a 25% strike rate. He comes to Carlisle for one ride, which is on Distinction. I like this angle a lot. If a jockey is prepared to come for one chance of leaving with a win, the chance of the horse winning goes up (in my opinion).
Even though there is no rain forecast at Carlisle, the ground is already deemed to be heavy. This is not normal for this time of year, and there isn't many in the race who will appreciate the underfoot conditions. Distinction will be perfectly fine on the ground. He is a three-time winner on soft ground, so there will be no questions to be asked.
Not only will he handle the ground, but he is also in good recent form. He managed to win at Pontefract on good ground, recording a good rating for the run. He will have to prove he is ahead of the handicapper, as he is carrying a 4lbs penalty for that success. The win at Pontefract was won in decent style, and the fact that they are running him just seven days after that success means he is still firing.
The 4lb penalty means he is running off a mark of 65. He has managed to win off a mark of 67 in the past, which means he is definitely more than capable of winning off this lower mark. In a race where the majority will have questions to be asked, Distinction looks like a solid candidate.
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